Abstract
Rainfall induced landslides are a common threat to the communities living on dangerous hill-slopes in Chittagong Metropolitan Area, Bangladesh. Extreme population pressure, indiscriminate hill cutting, increased precipitation events due to global warming and associated unplanned urbanization in the hills are exaggerating landslide events. The aim of this article is to prepare a scientifically accurate landslide susceptibility map by combining landslide initiation and runout maps. Land cover, slope, soil permeability, surface geology, precipitation, aspect, and distance to hill cut, road cut, drainage and stream network factor maps were selected by conditional independence test. The locations of 56 landslides were collected by field surveying. A weight of evidence (WoE) method was applied to calculate the positive (presence of landslides) and negative (absence of landslides) factor weights. A combination of analytical hierarchical process (AHP) and fuzzy membership standardization (weighs from 0 to 1) was applied for performing a spatial multi-criteria evaluation. Expert opinion guided the decision rule for AHP. The Flow-R tool that allows modeling landslide runout from the initiation sources was applied. The flow direction was calculated using the modified Holmgren’s algorithm. The AHP landslide initiation and runout susceptibility maps were used to prepare a combined landslide susceptibility map. The relative operating characteristic curve was used for model validation purpose. The accuracy of WoE, AHP, and combined susceptibility map was calculated 96%, 97%, and 98%, respectively.
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Acknowledgement
Md. Shahinoor Rahman is funded by the Center for Spatial Information Science and Systems at George Mason University, USA. Bayes Ahmed is a Commonwealth Scholar funded by the UK govt. We are grateful to the Chittagong Development Authority, Geological Survey of Bangladesh, Chittagong City Corporation, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, Survey of Bangladesh, Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council, U.S. Geological Survey, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration for providing the necessary datasets. We want to thank the field remunerators and the local people for their unconditional support. Finally, our profound gratitude goes to the editors of the Journal of Mountain Science and the three anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments that contributed to improve the quality of the manuscript.
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Electronic Supplementary Material: Supplementary material (Appendixes 1-6) is available in the online version of this article at https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-016-4220-z.
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Rahman, M.S., Ahmed, B. & Di, L. Landslide initiation and runout susceptibility modeling in the context of hill cutting and rapid urbanization: a combined approach of weights of evidence and spatial multi-criteria. J. Mt. Sci. 14, 1919–1937 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-016-4220-z
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-016-4220-z