Abstract
Cold related mortality among people aged over 50 in England and Wales has decreased at a rate of 85 deaths per million population per year over the period 1976–2005. This trend is two orders of magnitude higher than the increase in heat-related mortality observed after 1976. Long term changes in temperature-related mortality may be linked to human activity, natural climatic forcings, or to adaptation of the population to a wider range of temperatures. Here we employ optimal detection, a formal statistical methodology, to carry out an end to end attribution analysis. We find that adaptation is a major influence on changing mortality rates. We also find that adaptation has prevented a significant increase in heat-related mortality and considerably enhanced a significant decrease in cold-related mortality. Our analysis suggests that in the absence of adaptation, the human influence on climate would have been the main contributor to increases in heat-related mortality and decreases in cold-related mortality.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Allen MR, Tett SFB (1999) Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting. Clim Dyn 15:419–434
Allen MR, Stott PA (2003) Estimating signal amplitudes in optimal fingerprinting, part I: theory. Clim Dyn 21:477–491
Basu R, Samet JM (2002) Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence. Epidemiol Rev 24:190–202
Christidis N, Stott PA, Brown S, Hegerl GC, Caesar J (2005) Detection of changes in temperature extremes during the second half of the 20th century. Geophys Res Lett 32:L20716. doi:10.1029/2005GL023885
Confalonieri U, Menne B, Akhtar R, Ebi KL, Hauengue M, Kovats RS, Revich B, Woodward A (2007) Human health. In: Parry ML et al (eds) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Conti S, Meli P, Minelli G, Solimini R, Toccaceli V, Vichi M, Beltrano C, Perini L (2005) Epidemiologic study of mortality during the Summer 2003 heat wave in Italy. Environ Res 98:390–399
Curriero F, Patz JA, Rose JB, Lele S (2001) The association between extreme precipitation and waterborne disease outbreaks in the United States, 1948–1994. Am J Publ Health 91:1194–1199
Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Michaels PJ, Novicoff WM (2003) Changing heat-related mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 111:1712–1718
Davis RE, Knappenberger PC, Michaels PJ, Novicoff WM (2004) Seasonality of climate–human mortality relationships in US cities and impacts of climate change. Clim Res 26:61–76
Dessai S (2002) Heat stress and mortality in Lisbon part I. Model construction and validation. Int J Biometeorol 47:6–12
Diaz J, Jordan A, Garcia R, Lopez C, Alberdi JC, Hernández E, Otero A (2002) Heat waves in Madrid 1986–1997: effects on the health of the elderly. Int Arch Occup Environ Health 75:163–170
Donaldson GC, Keatinge WR (1997) Mortality related to cold weather in elderly people in southeast England, 1979–94. BMJ 315:1055–1056
Donaldson GC, Keatinge WR, Näyha S (2003) Changes in summer temperature and heat-related mortality since 1971 in North Carolina, South Finland, and Southeast England. Environ Res 91:1–7
Frumkin H (2002) Urban sprawl and public health. Public Health Rep 117:201–217
Gillett NP, Weaver AJ, Zwiers FW, Flannigan MD (2004) Detecting the effect of climate change on Canadian forest fires. Geophys Res Lett 31:L18211. doi:10.1029/2004GL020876
Gosling SN, McGregor GR, Páldy A (2007) Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities part 1: model construction and validation. Int J Biometeorol 51:52–540
Guest CS, Willson K, Woodward AJ, Hennessy K, Kalkstein LS, Skinner C, McMichael AJ (1999) Climate and mortality in Australia: retrospective study, 1979–1990, and predicted impacts in five major cities in 2030. Clim Res 13:1–15
Guha-Sapir P, Hargitt D, Hoyois H (2004) Thirty years of natural disasters 1974-2003: the numbers. UCL, Presses Universitaires de Louvrain, Louvrain la Neuve
Hajat S, Bird W, Haines A (2004) Cold weather and GP consultations for respiratory conditions by elderly people in 16 locations in the UK. Eur J Epidemiol 19:959–968
Hales S, Weinstein P, Woodward A (1996) Dengue fever epidemics in the South Pacific: driven by El Niño Southern Oscillation? Lancet 348:1664–1665
Hari Kumar R, Venkaiah K, Arlappa N, Kumar S, Brahman G, Vijayaraghavan K (2005) Diet and nutritional status of the population in the severely drought affected areas of Gujarat. J Hum Ecol 18:319–326
Health Statistics (2006) Report: estimated daily mortality during July 2006 in England and Wales. Health Stat Q 32:107–111
Hegerl GC, Zwiers FW, Braconnot P, Gillett NP, Luo Y, Marengo Orsini JA, Nicholls N, Penner JE, Stott PA (2007) Understanding and attributing climate change. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Huynen MM, Martens P, Schram D, Weijenberg MP, Kunst AE (2001) The impact of heat waves and cold spells on mortality rtes in the Dutch population. Environ Health Perspect 109:463–470
Ito K, De Leon SF, Lippmann M (2005) Associations between ozone and daily mortality: analysis and meta-analysis. Epidemiol 16:446–457
Johns TC, Durman CF, Banks HT, Roberts MJ, McLaren AJ, Ridley JK, Senior CA, Williams KD, Jones A, Rickard GJ, Cusack S, Ingram WJ, Crucifix M, Sexton DMH, Joshi MM, Dong B-W, Spencer H, Hill RSR, Gregory JM, Keen AB, Pardaens AK, Lowe JA, Bodas-Salcedo A, Stark S, Searl Y (2006) The new Hadley Centre climate model HadGEM1: evaluation of coupled simulations. J Clim 19:1327–1353
Jones GS, Stott PA, Christidis N (2008) Human contribution to rapidly increasing frequency of vary warm Northern Hemisphere summers. J Geophys Res 113:D02109. doi:10.1029/2007JD008914
Kalkstein LS (1993) Health and climate change. Direct impacts in cities. Lancet 264:1397–1399
Karoly DJ, Stott PA (2006) Anthropogenic warming of central England temperature. Atmos Sci Lett 7:81–85
Keatinge WR, Donaldson GC, Bucher K, Jendritzky G, Cordioli E, Martinelli M, Katsouyanni K, Kunst AE, McDonald C, Nayha S, Vuori I (2000a) Winter mortality in relation to climate. Int J Circumpolar Health 59:154–159
Keatinge WR, Donaldson GC, Cordioli E, Martinelli M, Kunst AE, Mackenbach JP, Nayha S, Vuori I (2000b) Heat related mortality in warm and cold regions of Europe: observational study. BMJ 321:670–673
Kovats S (ed) (2008) Health effects of climate change in the UK 2008. Department of Health, Health Protection Agency, DH Publications, London
Malezer D, Hales S, Weinstein P, Zalucki M, Woodward A (1999) El Niño and arboviral disease prediction. Environ Health Perspect 107:817–918
Manley G (1974) Central England temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973. Q J R Meteorol Soc 100:389–405
McGeehin MA, Mirabelli M (2001) The potential impacts of climate variability and change on temperature-related morbidity and mortality in the United States. Environ Health Perspect 109:185–189
McMichael AJ (2001) Impact of climatic and other environmental changes on food production and population health in the coming decades. Proc Nutr Soc 60:195–201
McMichael AJ, Campbell-Lendrum D, Kovats RS, Edwards S, Wilkinson P, Edmonds N, Nicholls N, Hales S, Tanser FC, Le Sueur D, Schlesinger M, Andronova N (2004) Climate change. In: Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Mathers C (eds) Comparative quantification of health risks: global and regional burden of disease due to selected major risk factors, vol 2. WHO, Geneva
McMichael AJ, Woodruff RE, Hales S (2006) Climate change and human health: present and future risks. Lancet 367:859–869
Medina-Ramón M, Schwartz J (2007) Temperature, temperature extremes, and mortality: a study of acclimatisation and effect modification in 50 US cities. Occup Environ Med 64:827–833
Nicholls RJ, Tol RSJ (2006) Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the 21st century. Philos T R Soc A 364:1073–1095
Parker DE, Horton B (2005) Uncertainties in Central England temperature 1878–2003 and some improvements to the maximum and minimum series. Int J Climatol 25:1173–1188
Patz JA, Campbell-Lendrum D, Holloway T, Foley JA (2005) Impact of regional climate change on human health. Nature 438:310–317
Rose JB, Epstein PR, Lipp EK, Sherman BH, Bernard SM, Patz JA (2001) Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on water and foodborne diseases caused by microbiologic agents. Environ Health Perspect 109:211–221
Schwartz J, Levin R (1999) Drinking water turbidity and health. Epidemiology 10:86–89
Singh R, Hales S, de Wet N, Raj R, Hearnden M, Weinstein P (2001) The influence of climate variation and change on diarrhoeal disease in the pacific islands. Environ Health Perspect 109:155–159
Stott PA, Tett SFB, Jones GS, Allen MR, Mitchell JFB, Jenkins GJ (2000) External control of twentieth century temperature variations by natural and anthropogenic forcings. Science 290:2133–2137
Stott PA, Stone DA, Allen MR (2004) Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432:610–613
Stott PA, Jones GS, Lowe JA, Thorne P, Durman CF, Johns TC, Thelen J-C (2006) Transient climate simulations with the HadGEM1 climate model: causes of past warming and future climate change. J Climate 19:2763–2782
Sur D, Dutta P, Nair GB, Bhattacharya SK (2000) Severe cholera outbreak following floods in a northern district of West Bengal. Indian J Med Res 112:178–182
Tett SFB, Jones GS, Stott PA, Hill DC, Mitchell JFB, Allen MR, Ingram WJ, Johns TC, Johnson CE, Jones A, Roberts DL, Sexton DMH, Woodage MJ (2002) Estimation of natural and anthropogenic contributions to twentieth century temperature change. J Geophys Res 107. doi:10.1029/2000JD000028
Vandentorren S, Empereur-Bissonnet P (2005) Health impact of the 2003 heat-wave in France. In: Kirch W, Menne B, Bertollini R (eds) Extreme weather events and public health responses. Springer, Berlin, pp 81–88
World Health Organisation (2002) The World Health Report. WHO, Geneva
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Christidis, N., Donaldson, G.C. & Stott, P.A. Causes for the recent changes in cold- and heat-related mortality in England and Wales. Climatic Change 102, 539–553 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9774-0
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9774-0