Abstract
Probabilistic analysis is a rational approach for engineering design because it provides more insight than traditional deterministic analysis. Probabilistic evaluation on seismic stability of three dimensional (3D) slopes is studied in this paper. The slope safety factor is computed by combining the kinematic approach of limit analysis using a three-dimensional rotational failure mechanism with the pseudo-dynamic approach. The variability of input parameters, including six pseudo-dynamic parameters and two soil shear strength parameters, are taken into account by means of Monte-Carlo Simulations (MCS) method. The influences of pseudo-dynamic input variables on the computed failure probabilities are investigated and discussed. It is shown that the obtained failure probabilities increase with the pseudo-dynamic input variables and the pseudo-dynamic approach gives more conservative failure probability estimates compared with the pseudo-static approach.
摘要
从概率分析的角度进行工程设计是一种合理的方法, 它可以提供比传统的确定性分析更全面的 信息。本文从概率分析的角度研究了三维边坡地震稳定性。通过结合基于三维旋转破坏机制的极限分 析上限法与拟动力法来计算边坡的安全系数。采用蒙特卡罗模拟方法来考虑模型参数的变异性, 包括 六个拟动力法参数和两个土体抗剪强度参数。本文研究并讨论了拟动力法参数的变异性对计算失效概 率的影响。结果表明: 边坡的失效概率随着拟动力法参数的增加而增加, 与拟静力法相比, 拟动力法
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Pan, Qj., Qu, Xr. & Wang, X. Probabilistic seismic stability of three-dimensional slopes by pseudo-dynamic approach. J. Cent. South Univ. 26, 1687–1695 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-019-4125-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11771-019-4125-4
Key words
- seismic slope stability
- pseudo-dynamic analysis
- probabilistic analysis
- Monte-Carlo simulation
- failure probability
- three-dimensional slop