Abstract
Risk analysis and assessment relating coastal structures has been one of the hot topics in the area of coastal protection recently. In this paper, from three aspects of joint return period of multiple loads, dike failure rate and dike continuous risk prevention respectively, three new risk analysis methods concerning overtopping of sea dikes are developed. It is worth noting that the factors of storm surge which leads to overtopping are also considered in the three methods. In order to verify and estimate the effectiveness and reliability of the newly developed methods, quantified mutual information is adopted. By means of case testing, it can be found that different prior variables might be selected dividedly, according to the requirement of special engineering application or the dominance of loads. Based on the selection of prior variables, the correlating risk analysis method can be successfully applied to practical engineering.
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This research work was supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 201362030), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41106077 and 51379195), Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. R5110036), Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. ZR2013EEM034), Open Fund of the Key Laboratory of Research on Marine Hazards Forecasting (Grant No. LOMF1101) and SRF for ROCS, SEM.
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Wang, Lp., Huang, Gl., Chen, Zs. et al. Risk analysis and assessment of overtopping concerning sea dikes in the case of storm surge. China Ocean Eng 28, 479–487 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13344-014-0039-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13344-014-0039-y