Abstract
Scientists’ responsibility to inform the public about their results may conflict with their responsibility not to cause social disturbance by the communication of these results. A study of the well-known Brady-Spence and Iben Browning earthquake predictions illustrates this conflict in the publication of scientifically unwarranted predictions. Furthermore, a public policy that considers public sensitivity caused by such publications as an opportunity to promote public awareness is ethically problematic from (i) a refined consequentialist point of view that any means cannot be justified by any ends, and (ii) a rights view according to which individuals should never be treated as a mere means to ends. The Parkfield experiment, the so-called paradigm case of cooperation between natural and social scientists and the political authorities in hazard management and risk communication, is also open to similar ethical criticism. For the people in the Parkfield area were not informed that the whole experiment was based on a contested seismological paradigm.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Allen, C. R. (1976) Responsibilities in Earthquake Prediciton. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America 66: 2069–74.
Dummett, M. (1981) Ought Research to be Unrestricted? in: Heller, R. ed. Science and Ethics. Rodopi, Amsterdam: 281–298.
Kant, I. (1989) Foundations of the Metaphysics of Morals. Beck, L. W. tr. Macmillan, New York.
Kerr, R. A. (1981) Prediction of Huge Peruvian Quakes Quashed. Science 211: 808–809.
Olson, R. S., Podesta, B. & Nigg, J. M. (1989) The Politics of Earthquake Prediction. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Olson, R. A. & Olson, R. S. (2001) Socioeconomic Reverberations of Earthquake Prediction: Snapshot in Time, Peru 1979–1981. Natural Hazards Review 2(3): 124–131.
Kerr, R. A. (1981) Earthquake Prediction Retracted. Science 213: 527.
Lomnitz, C. (1994) Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction. John Wiley & Sons, New York.
Allen, C. R. (1982) Earthquake Prediction—1982 Overview. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America 72(6): S331-S335.
Spence, W., Herrmann, R. B., Johnston, A. C. & Reagor, G. (1993) Responses to Iben Browning’s Prediction of a 1990 New Madrid, Missouri, Earthquake. U. S. Geological Survey Circular 1083.
Kerr, R. A. (1991) The Lessons of Dr. Browning. Science 253: 622–623.
Mill, J. S. (1956) On Liberty. Bobbs-Merill, New York.
Quarantelli, E. L. (1954) The Nature and Conditions of Panic. The American Journal of Sociology 60(3): 267–275.
Johnson, N. R. (1987) Panic and the Breakdown of Social Order: Popular Myth, Social Theory, Empirical Evidence. Sociological Focus 20(3): 171–183.
Mileti, D. S. & Peek, L. (2000) The Social Psychology of Public Response to Warnings of a Nuclear Power Plant Accident. Journal of Hazardous Materials 75(2–3): 181–194.
Bakun, W.H. & McEvilly, T. V. (1979) Earthquakes near Parkfield, California: Comparing the 1934 and 1966 Sequences. Science 205: 1375–1377.
Bakun, W.H. & McEvilly, T. V. (1984) Recurrence Models and Parkfield, California, Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research 89: 3051–3058.
Bakun, W. H. & Lindh, A. G. (1985) The Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction Experiment. Science 229: 619–624.
Savage, J. C. (1993) The Parkfield Prediction Fallacy. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 83: 1–6.
Andrews, R. (1992) The Parkfield Earthquake Prediction of October 1992: The Emergency Services Response. Earthquakes and Volcanoes 23(4): 170–174.
Langbein, J. (1992) The October 1992 Parkfield, California, Earthquake Prediction. Earthquake and Volcanoes 23(4): 160–169.
The history of status levels at Parkfield 〈http://quake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/status_history.pdf〉.
Mileti, D. S. & Fitzpatrick, C. (1992) The Causal Sequence of Risk Communication in the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment. Risk Analysis 12(3): 393–400.
Mileti, D. S., Fitzpatrick, C. & Farhar, B. C. (1992) Fostering Public Preparations for Natural Hazards: Lessons from the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction. Environment 34(3): 16-&.
California Office of Emergency Services Parkfield Brochure 〈http://quake.usgs.gov/research/parkfield/caoes.html〉
Bak, P. & Tang, C. (1989) Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon. Journal of Geophysical Research 94: 15635–15637.
Ito, K. & Matsuazaki, M. (1990) Earthquakes as self-organized critical phenomena. Journal of Geophysical Research 95: 6853–6860.
Geller, R. J. (1991) Shake-up for earthquake prediction. Nature 352: 275–276.
Aceves, R. L. & Park, S. K. (1997) Science 278: 488.
Geller, R. J. (1997) Earthquake prediction; a critical review. Geophysical Journal International 131: 425–450.
Stark, P. B. (1997) Earthquake prediction: the null hypothesis. Geophysical Journal International 131: 495–499.
Geller, R. J., Jackson, D. D., Kagan, Y. Y. & Mulargia, F. (1997) Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted. Science 275: 1616–1617.
Swinbanks, D. (1997) Quake panel admits prediction is ‘difficult’. Nature 388: 4.
Normile, D. (1997) Report Slams Japanese Program. Science 275: 1870.
Normile, D. (1998) Japan Urged to drop Short-Term Goal. Science 280: 1000.
Saegusa, A. (1998) Japan’s quake strategy urged to switch to long-term forecasting. Nature 393: 202.
Saegusa, A. (1999) Japan to try to understand quakes, not predict them. Nature 397: 284.
Holden, C. (1996) Money Doesn’t Buy Quake Prediction Faith. Science 271: 915.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sol, A., Turan, H. The ethics of earthquake prediction. SCI ENG ETHICS 10, 655–666 (2004). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11948-004-0045-1
Received:
Accepted:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11948-004-0045-1