Abstract
In this paper, we proposed a framework for evaluating the performance of ecosystem strategies prepared for enhancing vulnerability reduction in the face of hazards due to climate change. The framework highlights the positive effects of human activities in the coupled human and natural system (CHANS) by introducing adaptive capacity as an evaluation criterion. A built-in regional vulnerability to a certain hazard was generated based upon interaction of three dimensions of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We illustrated the application of this framework in the temperate farming-grazing transitional zone in the middle Inner Mongolia of the northern China, where drought hazard is the key threat to the CHANS. Specific indices were produced to translate such climate variance and social-economic differences into specific indicators. The results showed that the most exposed regions are the inner land areas, while counties located in the eastern part are potentially the most adaptive ones. Ordos City and Bayannur City are most frequently influenced by multiple climate variances, showing highest sensitivity. Analysis also indicated that differences in the ability to adapt to changes are the main causes of spatial differences. After depiction of the spatial differentiations and analysis of the reasons, climate zones were divided to depict the differences in facing to the drought threats. The climate zones were shown to be similar to vulnerability zones based on the quantitative structure of indexes drafted by a triangular map. Further analysis of the composition of the vulnerability index showed that the evaluation criteria were effective in validating the spatial differentiation but potentially ineffective because of their limited time scope. This research will be a demonstration of how to combine the three dimensions by quantitative methods and will thus provide a guide for government to vulnerability reduction management.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Adger W N, 2006. Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 163(16): 268–281. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006
Birkmann J, 2007. Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: Applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Environmental Hazards, 7(1): 20–31. doi: 10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.04.002
Blaikie P, Cannon T, Davis I et al., 1994. At Risk: Natural Hazards, Peoples, Vulnerability and Disasters. London: Routledge.
Braimoh A K, 2009. Agricultural land-use change during economic reforms in Ghana. Land Use Policy, 26(3): 763–771. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2008.10.006
Brooks N, Adger W N, Kelly P M, 2005. The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation. Global Environmental Change, 15(2): 151–163. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.006
Chang C L, Chao Y C, 2011. Using the analytical hierarchy process to assess the environmental vulnerabilities of basins in Taiwan. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 184(5): 2939–2945. doi: 10.1007/s10661-011-2162-z
Eakin H, Luers A L, 2006. Assessing the vulnerability of social-environmental systems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 31: 365–394. doi: 10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.14435
Guttman N B, 1998. Comparing the palmer drought index and the standardized precipitation index. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 34(1): 113–121. doi: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05964.x
Hinkel J, 2011. Indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity: Towards a clarification of the science-policy interface. Global Environmental Change, 21(1): 198–208. doi: 10.1016/j.Gloenvcha.2010.08.002
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Bureau of Statistics, 2007. Inner Mongolia Statistical Yearbook. Beijing: China Statistics Press.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2000. Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. The Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Scientific Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Jackson L E, Bird S L, Matheny R W et al., 2004. A regional approach to predicting land-use change and resulting ecological vulnerability. Environment Monitoring and Assessments, 94(1–3): 231–248. doi: 10.1023/B:EMAS.0000016891.24052. bf
Jones R N, Dettmann P, Park G et al., 2007. The relationship between adaptation and mitigation in managing climate change risks: A regional response from North Central Victoria, Australia. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 12(5): 685–712. doi: 10.1007/s11027-007-9094-5
Kelly P M, Adger W N, 2000. Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change, 47(4): 325–352. doi: 10.1023/A:1005627828199
Leng Shuying, 1994. Human impacts on environmental degradation of the Ordos. Chinese Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 8: 44–52. (in Chinese)
Li A, Wang A, Liang S et al., 2006. Eco-environmental vulnerability evaluation in mountainous region using remote sensing and GIS-A case study in the upper reaches of Minjiang River, China. Ecological Modeling, 192(1–2): 175–187. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.07.005
Li Weijing, Zhao Zhengguo, Li Xiang et al., 2003. The drought characteristics analysis in North China and its causes of formation. Arid Meteorology, 21(4): 1–5. (in Chinese).
Liu J G, Diamond J, 2005. China’s environment in a globalizing world. Nature, 435: 1179–1186. doi: 10.1038/4351179a
Liu J G, Dietz T, Carpenter S R et al., 2007a. Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science, 317(5844): 1513–1516. doi: 10.1126/science.1144004
Liu J G, Dietz T, Carpenter S R et al., 2007b. Coupled human and natural systems. AMBIO, 36(8): 639–649. doi: 10.1579/0044-7447(2007)36[639:CHANS]2.0.CO;2
Luers A L, Lobell D B, Sklar L S et al., 2003. A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico. Global Environmental Change, 13(4): 255–267. doi: 10.1016/S0959-3780(03)00054-2
McCarthy J J, Canziani O F, Leary N A et al., 2001. Climate Change: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Mckee T B, Doesken N J, Kleist J, 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Proceeding of 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, California.
National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2007. Statistical Yearbook of China. Beijing: China Statistics Press.
O’Brien K, Eriksen S, Schjolen A et al., 2004a. What’s in a word? Conflicting interpretations of vulnerability in climate change research. CICERO working paper. Norway: Oslo University.
O’Brien K, Leichenko R, Kelkar U et al., 2004b. Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: Climate change and globalization in India. Global Environmental Change, 14(4): 303–313. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.01.001
Olga V W, Donald A W, 2002. Assessing vulnerability to agricultural drought: A Nebraska case study. Natural Hazards, 25(1): 37–58. doi: 10.1023/A:1013388814894
Polsky C, Neff R, Yarnal B, 2007. Building comparable global change vulnerability assessments: The vulnerability scoping diagram. Global Environmental Change, 17(3–4): 472–485. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2007.01.005
Smit B, Wandel J, 2006. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change, 16(3): 282–292. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.03.008
Song Naiping, Zhang Fengrong, 2007. The changing process and mechanism of the farming-grazing transitional land use pattern in Ordos. Acta Geographica Sinica, 62(12): 1300–1308. (in Chinese)
Tol R S J, Yohe G W, 2007. The weakest link hypothesis for adaptive capacity: An empirical test. Global Environmental Change, 17(2): 218–227. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.08.001
Turner B L, Kasperson R E, Matson P A et al., 2003a. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100(14): 8074–8079. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1231335100
Turner B L, Matson P A, McCarthy J J et al., 2003b. Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis: Three case studies. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 100(14): 8080–8085. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1231334100
Wu H, Hayes M, Weiss A et al., 2001. An evaluation of the standardized precipitation index, the China-z index and the statistical z-score. International Journal of Climatology, 21(6): 745–758. doi: 10.1002/joc.658
Wu H, Svoboda M D, Hayes M J et al., 2007. Appropriate application of the standardized precipitation index in arid locations and dry seasons. International Journal of Climatology, 27(1): 65–79. doi: 10.1002/joc.1371
Yohe G, Tol R S J, 2002. Indicators for social and economic coping capacity-moving toward a working definition of adaptive capacity. Global Environmental Change, 12(1): 25–40. doi: 10.1016/S0959-3780(01)00026-7
Zhang Tianfeng, Wang Jinsong, Guo Jiangyong, 2007. Analysis on the change of aridity index in Northwest China in autumn. Arid Zone Research, 87(1): 87–92. (in Chinese)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Foundation item: Under the auspices of Public Welfare Scientific Research Project of Chinese Ministry of Land and Resource (No. 200911015-2)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, X., Wang, Y., Peng, J. et al. Assessing vulnerability to drought based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A case study in middle Inner Mongolia of China. Chin. Geogr. Sci. 23, 13–25 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-012-0583-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-012-0583-4