Abstract
Applying directed complex network to model the main structure of a product family, according to in-degree bi-logarithmic coordinate distribution curve and distribution rule of nodes of the network, in-degree evolving rule of nodes of the network is presented and analytic expression of in-degree probability density of nodes is derived. Through the analysis of the relation between existing kinds of components and existing product numbers, an expression of the relation between kinds of components and product numbers is derived. A forecast method for the increment of component numbers and parts based on the increment of products is presented. As an example, the component numbers of an industrial steam turbine product family is forecasted, forecast result verified and forecast error analyzed.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Pine B J, Mass customization, The New Frontier in Business Competition, Boston MA: Harvard Business School Press, 1993
Erdös P, Rényi A, On the evolution of random graphs, Publ Math Inst Hung Acad Sci, 1959, 5: 17–60
Watts D J, Strogatz S H, Collective dynamics of small-world networks, Nature, 1998, 393(6684): 440–442
Barabási A L, Albert R, Jeong H Mean-field theory for scalefree networks, Physics A, 1999, 272: 173–187
Mark E J Newman, The structure and function of complex networks, SIAM Review, 2003, 45(2): 167–256
Albert R, Barabási A L, Statistical mechanics of complex networks, Review of Modern Physics, 2002, 74(1): 47–97
Mark E J Newman, Models of the small world: A review, J Stat Phys, 2000, 101(3–4): 819–841
Amaral L A N, Scala A, Barthelemy M, et al, Classes of small-world networks, Proc Nat Ac Sci, USA 97, 2000: 11 149–11 152
Liu Z, Lai Y C, Ye N, et al, Connectivity distribution and attack tolerance of general networks with both preferential and random attachments, Physics Letters A, 2002, 303: 337–344
Li X, Chen G, A local-world evolving network model, Physica A, 2003, 328: 274–286
Qi G N, Gu X J, Tan J R, et al, Mass Customization Technology and Its Application, Beijing: China Mechanical Press, 2003 (in Chinese)
Krapivsky P L, Redner S, Eyvraz F, Connectivity of Growing random networks, Phys Rev Lett, 2000, 85(R): 4 629–4 632
Jeong H, Néda Z, Balabási A L, Measuring pre-ferential attachment for evolving network, 2001, preprint cond-mat/0104131
Dorogovtsev S N, Mendes J F F, Evolution of networks with aging of sites, Phys Rev E, 2000, 62: 1 842–1 845
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
__________
Translated from Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2006, 42(6) (in Chinese)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, Fy., Qi, Gn. & Yang, Qh. Forecast method for used number of parts and components based on complex network. Front. Mech. Eng. China 1, 479–484 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11465-006-0064-5
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11465-006-0064-5