Abstract
Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete its urbanization? To answer these questions, this paper presents a system dynamic (SD) model of Chinese urbanization, and its validity and simulation are justified by a stock-flow test and a sensitivity analysis using real data from 1998 to 2013. Setting the initial conditions of the simulation by referring to the real data of 2013, the multi-scenario analysis from 2013 to 2050 reveals that Chinese urbanization will reach a level higher than 70% in 2035 and then proceed to a slow urbanization stage regardless of the population policy and GDP growth rate settings; in 2050, Chinese urbanization levels will reach approximately 75%, which is a stable and equilibrium level for China. Thus, it can be argued that Chinese urbanization is a long social development process that will require approximately 20 years to complete and that the ultimate urbanization level will be 75–80%, which means that in the distant future, 20–25% of China’s population will still settle in rural regions of China.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Allen P M, Boon F, Engelen G, Sanglier M. 1984. Modeling evolving spatial choice patterns. Appl Math Comput, 14: 97–129
Armah F A, Yawson D O, Pappoe A A N M. 2010. A systems dynamics approach to explore traffic congestion and air pollution link in the city of Accra, Ghana. Sustainability, 2: 252–265
Batten D. 1982. On the dynamics of industrial evolution. Region Sci Urban Econ, 12: 449–462
Batty M. 2005. Agents, cells, and cities: New representational models for simulating multiscale urban dynamics. Environ Planning A, 37: 1373–1394
Bockermann A, Meyer B, Omann I, Spangenberg J H. 2005. Modelling sustainability. J Policy Model, 27: 189–210
Cai L. 2008. The Application of System Dynamics in the Research of Sustainable Development (in Chinese). Beijing: China Environmental Science Press
Chan K W, Hu Y. 2003. Urbanization in China in the 1990s: New definition, different series, and revised trends. China Review 3: 49–71
Chang Y C, Hong F W, Lee M T. 2008. A system dynamic based DSS for sustainable coral reef management in Kenting coastal zone, Taiwan. Ecol Model, 211: 153–168
Chen M, Liu W, Tao X. 2013. Evolution and assessment on China’s urbanization 1960–2010: Under-urbanization or over-urbanization? Habitat Int, 38: 25–33
Egilmez G, Tatari O. 2012. A dynamic modeling approach to highway sustainability: Strategies to reduce overall impact. Transport Res A-Pol, 46: 1086–1096
Forrester J W. 1969. Urban Dynamics. Cambridge: MIT Press
Forrester J W. 1971. World Dynamics. Lawrence: Wright-Allen Press
Gao C L, Wei H K. 2013. Study on the prediction of Chinese urbanization trend (in Chinese). Mod Econ Sci, 35: 85–90
Georgiadis P, Besiou M. 2008. Sustainability in electrical and electronic equipment closed-loop supply chains: A system dynamics approach. J Cleaner Prod, 16: 1665–1678
Georgiadis P, Vlachos D, Iakovou E. 2005. A system dynamics modeling framework for the strategic supply chain management of food chains. J Food Eng, 70: 351–364
Gu C L. 1992. Chinese Urban Hierarchy: History, Status Quo and Prospect. Beijing: Commercial Press. 334–350, 340, 348–350
Guan D, Gao W, Su W, Li H, Hokao K. 2011. Modeling and dynamic assessment of urban economy-resource-environment system with a coupled system dynamics—Geographic information system model. Ecol Indicators, 11: 1333–1344
Guo H C, Liu L, Huang G H, Fuller G A, Zou R, Yin Y Y. 2001. A system dynamics approach for regional environmental planning and management: A study for the Lake Erhai Basin. J Environ Manage, 61: 93–111
Haghshenas H, Vaziri M, Gholamialam A. 2015. Evaluation of sustainable policy in urban transportation using system dynamics and world cities data: A case study in Isfahan. Cities, 45: 104–115
Han Y H, Huang L X, Zou J H. 2016. The advent of the era of China’s economic structural slowdown (in Chinese). Stat Res, 33: 23–33
He C Y, Shi P J, Chen J, Pan Y Z, Li X B, Li J, Li Y C, Li J G. 2005. Developing land use scenario dynamics model by the integration of system dynamics model and cellular automata model. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 48: 1979–1989
He H B, Pan Y G, Chen L H. 2006. Tentative study on prediction model of regional energy demand (in Chinese). Prediction Analysis, 23): 3–5
Hu X L. 2013. Urbanization and low-carbon transformation. In: Wang W G, Zheng G G, eds. Report on Climate Change (2013): Low-Carbon Urbanization (in Chinese). Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press
Jia R A, Ding R H. 2002. System dynamics: Analysis of feeback dynamic complexity (in Chinese). Beijing: Higher Education Press
Jin W, Xu L, Yang Z. 2009. Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint. Ecol Econ, 68: 2938–2949
Li Q. 2011. Research on dynamic simulation model of urban public safety emergency response based on multi-agent. Dissertation for Doctoral Degree. Beijing: Tsinghua University
Li Q, Gu C L. 2015. A dynamic simulation approach to support emergency decision making on urban public safety (in Chinese). Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 45: 290–304
Liu W, Cai Z Z. 2015. The upgradation of industrial structure in the process of China’s industrialization and its economic growth under the new normal. J Peking Univ-Philos Soc Sci, 52: 5–19
Liu Y, Lv X, Qin X, Guo H, Yu Y, Wang J, Mao G. 2007. An integrated GISbased analysis system for land-use management of lake areas in urban fringe. Landscape Urban Plan, 82: 233–246
Meadows D H, Meadows D L, Randers J, Behrens W. 1972. The Limits to Growth: A Report to the Club of Rome. New York: Universe Books
Mohapatra P. Mandal P, Bora M. 1994. Introduction to System Dynamics Modeling. Hyderabad: Orient Longman Ltd
Northam R M. 1975. Urban Geography. New York: John Wiley & Sons
Pei T Y, Zhang H W, Zhang X H, Lei M. 2010. Logistic analysis in ecocompus based on system dynamic and sensitivity model (in Chinese). Sikuan Enviroment, 29: 64–67
Portugali J. 2000. Self-Organization and the City. Berlin: Springer-Verlag
Pumain D, Saint-Julien T, Sanders L. 1986. Urban dynamics of some French cities. Eur J Oper Res, 25: 3–10
Qiu Y, Shi X L, Shi C H. 2015. A system dynamics model for simulating the logistics demand dynamics of metropolitans: A case study of Beijing, China. J Ind Eng Manage, 8: 783–803
Shen T Y, Wu B. 2006. China urban future simulation: An integrated framework of CGE and GIS (in Chinese). Adv Earth Sci, 21: 1153–1163
Shen T Y, Wang W D, Hou M, Guo Z C, Xue L, Yang K Z. 2007. Study on spatio-temporal system dynamic models of urban growth. Syst Eng-Theor Practice, 27: 10–17
Sterman J. 2000. Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. Boston: McGraw-Hill. 982
The World Bank and the Development Research Center of the State Council (China). 2014. Urban China: Toward Efficient, Inclusive, and Sustainable Urbanization. Beijing: China Development Press.
121 The Economist Intelligence Unit. 2014. China’s Urbanization in 2030. China Economic Report, 7): 93–98
Tong L, Dou Y. 2014. Simulation study of coal mine safety investment based on system dynamics. Int J Mining Sci Tech, 24: 201–205
Venkatesan A K, Ahmad S, Johnson W, Batista J R. 2011. Systems dynamic model to forecast salinity load to the Colorado River due to urbanization within the Las Vegas Valley. Sci Total Environ, 409: 2616–2625
Wang Q F. 1994. System Dynamics (in Chinese). Beijing: Tsinghua University Press
Wolstenholme E F. 1983. Modeling national development program—An exercise in system description and qualitative analysis using system dynamics. J Oper Res Soc, 34: 1133–1148
Xia B, Hu J M, Zhang Z, Yao Y D. 2002. Visualized simulation of urban traffic guidance system based on PARAMICS (in Chinese). Systems Engineering, 20: 72–78
Xu K D. 2013. Study on the Development Strategy of New Urbanization with Chinese Characteristics (Comprehensive volume) (in Chinese). Beijing: China Building Industry Press
Xu Y, Sun C Z. 2008. Simulation of water resources carrying capacity based on a system dynamic model in Dalian (in Chinese). J Saf Environ, 8: 71–74
Xu Z, Coors V. 2012. Combining system dynamics model, GIS and 3D visualization in sustainability assessment of urban residential development. Build Environ, 47: 272–287
Xue B, Song X S, Yan D H. 2011. Simulation and prediction of water resources carrying capacity based on a system dynamic model in Tianjin (in Chinese). South-to-North Water Diversion Water Sci Technol, 9: 43–47
Xue L, Yang K Z. 2002. Sciences of complexity and studies of evolution simulation of regional spatial structure. Geogr Res, 21: 79–88
Ying Q, Shi X L, Shi C H. 2015. A system dynamics model for simulating the logistics demand dynamics of metropolitans: A case study of Beijing, China. J Ind Eng Manage, 8: 783–803
Yuan J X, Wang R Q, Yin C X, Qiu Z F. 1987. Application of Systems Theory in Regional Planning (in Chinese). Beijing: Social Sciences Academic Press
Zeleny M. 1980. Autopoiesis, Dissipative Structures and Spontaneous Social Orders. Boulder: Westview Press
Zhang X H, Zhang H W, Zhang B A. 2008. Application of system dynamics approach to urban water demand forecasting and water resources planning (in Chinese). China Water Waste Water, 24: 42–46
Zhou T Y. 1994. Labor and Economic Growth (in Chinese). Shanghai: Sanlian Press
Zhou W, Mi H. 2009. Systems dynamics of future urbanization and energy- related CO2 emissions in China. Wseas Transactions Systems, 8: 1145–1154
Acknowledgements
It was first presented at the Symposium on Rethinking China’s Urbanization in the University of Ottawa on 24–25 October, 2015. This work was supported by the Key Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China “the SD model and threshold value prediction of the interactive coupled effects between urbanization and eco-environment in mega-urban agglomerations” (Grant No. 41590844) and the Independent Research Program of Tsinghua University (Grant No. 2015THZ01).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Gu, C., Guan, W. & Liu, H. Chinese urbanization 2050: SD modeling and process simulation. Sci. China Earth Sci. 60, 1067–1082 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-016-9022-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-016-9022-2