Keywords

1 Introduction

One sixth of humanity is undernourished, more than ever before (FAO 2009b). Changing climatic conditions are projected to affect food security through their impact on global, national and local food systems. More frequent and intense extreme weather and climate events, increasing uncertainties in rainy season ­patterns and rising sea levels are already having significant impacts on food ­production, food distribution infrastructure, food emergencies, livelihood assets and human health, in both rural and urban areas (FAO 2008a).

Climate change will generate significant costs to both developing and developed countries. Such costs will include increased frequency and intensity of severe weather events such as floods, tornados and hurricanes; increased drought in some regions; loss of coastal areas and water shortages; and changes in the incidence of disease. Projected changes in the frequency and severity of extreme climate events have significant consequences for food and forestry production, and food ­insecurity, in addition to impacts of projected mean climate (Easterling et al. 2007).

Higher growing season temperature can have significant impacts on agriculture productivity, farm incomes, and food security (Battisti and Naylor 2009). In mid-to high-latitude regions, moderate warming benefits cereal crop and pasture yields, but even slight warming decreases yields in seasonally dry and tropical regions (IPCC 2007c) and will increase risk of hunger in poor ­developing countries. These countries are highly vulnerable to climate change as under nourishment is already prevalent among considerable proportion of the population.

Many of the world’s small-scale farmers work on marginal land in the tropics. The adaptive capacity of the smallholder farmers are constrained, will experience the negative effects on yields of low latitude crops, combined with a high ­vulnerability to extreme events. Climate change is likely to affect the suitability of land for different types of crops, livestock, fish and pasture. It would also have an impact on the health and productivity of forests, the incidence of pests and diseases, biodiversity and ecosystems. Regional changes in distribution and productivity of particular fish species are expected due to continued warming.

Growing support to the production of biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel from crops adds another dimension to the factors influencing food security. Demand for biofuels could place additional pressure on the natural resource base, with ­particularly harmful environmental and social consequences for people who already lack access to energy, food, land and water (FAO 2007). On the one hand, a stronger link between agriculture and the demand for energy could result in higher ­agricultural prices, output and gross domestic product (GDP) and long-term improvements in food security. On the other hand, there is a risk that unsustainable biofuel development could threaten the food security of the world’s poorest people (FAO 2008c). This paper presents the challenges of world food security posed by climate change and bioenergy with potential adaptation and mitigation options.

2 Trends of Agriculture Growth and Food Consumption

2.1 Population Growth and Demand for Food

World population is expected to grow by over a third (or 2.3 billion people) between 2009 and 2050. This is much slower rate of growth than seen in the past four decades (FAO 2009b). The main reason is that slower population growth at the global level will be the net result of continuing increases in some countries ­compensated by declines in others. Nearly all the further population increases will be occurring in countries several of which even in 2050 may still have inadequate food consumption levels, hence significant possibility for further increases in demand. World’s average per capita agriculture GDP has grown from US$328 in 1980 to US$472 in 2004 (FAO 2007) and is much less than overall per capita GDP. Continued growth of world agriculture is expected even after the end of world population growth. Feeding a world population of 9.1 ­billion people in 2050 would require raising overall food production by some 70% over the period from 2005/07 to 2050 (FAO 2009a). The combined effects of climate change, land degradation, crop land losses, water scarcity and species infestations may cause projected yields to be 5–25% short of demand by 2050 (Nellemann et al. 2009).

To compensate this demand in output, another 185 million ha of rainfed-crop land (+19%) and 60 million ha of irrigated land (+30%) will have to be brought into production. The entire agricultural land expansion need to take place in developing countries especially in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America (Cassman et al. 2003). Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and Latin America, with high rates of population growth and natural resource degradation, are likely to continue to have high rate of poverty and food insecurity (Alexandratos 2005). Climate change will add an additional challenge to the dual challenge of meeting food demand while at the same time protecting natural resources.

2.2 Trends of Food Consumption

The historical trend towards increased food consumption per capita as a world ­average and particularly in the developing countries will likely continue, but at slower rates than in the past. The average of the developing countries, that rose from 2,111 kcal/person/day 35 years ago to the present 2,650 kcal, may rise further to 3,070 kcal by 2050 (Fig. 13.1). However, not all countries may achieve food consumption levels constant with requirements for good nutrition (FAO 2006). Potential exists for several of these countries to make gains by assigning priority to the development of local food production. But in countries that have limited ­agricultural ­potential, the problem of production constrained food insecurity and increase in undernourishment may persist.

Fig 13.1
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Per capita food consumption (kcal/person/day) (Data from FAO 2006)

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For example, the total food production in South Asia has increased threefolds from 117 million tonnes in 1961 to 348 million tonnes in 2006 (Fig. 13.2), but the dietary energy consumption has increased only marginally and the current dietary energy consumption is 2,364 kcal/person/day. It requires additional efforts in yield improvement, given the fact that there is limited scope for ­expanding area under cultivation and area under irrigation. The above facts and figures underline the importance of putting in place effective poverty reduction ­strategies, safety nets, and rural development programs in addition to climate change ­adaptation and ­mitigation initiatives.

Fig 13.2
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Food production in South Asia (Source: FAOSTAT)

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3 Climate Change and Food Security

Agriculture has been described as the most weather-dependent of all human ­activities (Oram 1989). Importantly, agriculture in its many different forms and locations remains highly sensitive to climate variations, the dominant source of the overall interannual variability of production in many regions and a continuing source of disruption to ecosystem services (Howden 2007).

Rural population, over 2.6 billion who depend on agriculture for sustenance and livelihood are often vulnerable to the direct impacts of adverse climate events. On average 2.2 billion tonnes of cereals are produced yearly for food and feed, ­providing two-thirds of total protein intake by humans. In addition, 260 million tones of meat and about 139 million tonnes of fish (36 million tones of freshwater; 72 million tones of marine and 31 million tones of other aquatic ­animals) are produced annually (FAO 2007). Aquatic products contribute 50% or more of total animal protein intake in some small islands and other developing countries (FAO 2008d).

Climate change will affect food security in all of its four dimensions – availability, accessibility, utilization and stability. Negative impacts of climate change and increasing climate variability on food security, with the potential of reducing food production, access to and utilization of food in many regions already vulnerable today, are expected. In particular, stability of food supply is likely to be ­disrupted by more frequent and severe climate extremes and associated variability of agricultural production across all areas. Utilization of food may be affected negatively by increases in crop, livestock and human pests and diseases, as well as by reduced water availability and water quality. The result could be a substantial decline in labour productivity and increase in poverty and mortality rates.

The conceptual framework presents a simplified description of the dynamics of potential climate change impacts and feedback loops in a holistic food system (Fig. 13.3). The implications are presented linearly by looking at projected changes for each of five of the most important climate variables for food system process. In general the framework presents how climate change affects food security outcomes for four components of food security in various direct and indirect ways (FAO 2008b).

Fig. 13.3
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The conceptual framework of climate change and food security (Source: FAO 2008b)

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Climate change variables influence biophysical factors, such as plant and ­animal growth, water cycles, biodiversity and nutrient cycling, and the ways in which these are managed through agricultural practices and land use for food production. However, climate variables also have an impact on physical and human capital such as roads, storage and marketing infrastructure, houses, ­productive assets and human health which indirectly changes the economic and socio-political facts that govern food access and utilization and can threaten the stability of food systems.

The framework illustrates how adaptive adjustments to food system activities will be needed all along the food chain to cope with the impacts of climate change. The climate change variables considered in the ­framework are: the CO2fertilization of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, increasing mean, maximum and minimum temperature, gradual changes in precipitation, increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events and greater seasonal weather variability and changes in growing season determinants.

4 Agriculture and Global Climate Change

Agriculture is not only at risk from climate change, it is a major driver of environmental and climate change itself. Agriculture land occupied 4,972 Mha in 2000 and most of the area is under pasture (3,442 Mha), arable crops (1,397 Mha) and permanent crop occupied 135 Mha (FAO 2007). Agriculture gained almost 500 Mha during the last four decades from other land uses, a change driven largely by increasing demands for food from a growing population (Smith et al. 2007). At the global level, 3,952 Mha of land are forested (Nabuurs et al. 2007). Agricultural lands (lands used for agricultural ­production, consisting of cropland, managed grassland and permanent crops including agro-forestry and bioenergy crops) occupy about 40–50% of the Earth’s land surface (IPCC 2007c).

Agriculture is a notable source of the three major greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. Agricultural activities and land-use changes contribute about one-third of the total carbon dioxide emissions and are the largest sources of methane from livestock and flooded rice production and nitrous oxide primarily from application of inorganic nitrogenous fertilizer. Globally, agriculture accounted for an estimated emission of 5.1–6.1 GtCO2-eq/year in 2005 (accounts for 10–12% of the total anthropogenic emissions of GHGs) (IPCC 2007c). Of the global atmospheric emissions of GHGs ­agriculture accounts for 58% of N2O and about 47% of CH4(Smith et al. 2007). Forestry (including deforestation) accounted for 17.4% of total greenhouse gas ­emissions in 2004, with emissions from intensive crop and livestock production ­contributing another 13.5% (IPCC 2007c).

5 Challenges of Climate Change on Food Security

5.1 Changes in Water Quantity and Quality

Water use has grown rapidly over the past century, increasing more than sevenfold between 1900 and 2000 while the human population grew by about a factor of four (UNDP 2006). Despite a decline in per capita consumption since the 1980s, global water use continues to increase (Shiklomanov and Rodda 2003). At the global level, current water use represents about 13% of annual supply (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005) with an overall upward trend, indicating increasing pressure on freshwater resources.

Projections reported in the Human Development Report 2006 (UNDP 2006) ­suggest that, by 2025, over three billion people are likely to be experiencing water stress and 14 additional countries might be classified as water-scarce. An additional 1.8 billion people could be living in a water stress environment by 2080 (UNDP 2008). Renewable groundwater is directly linked to the cycling of ­freshwater through the atmosphere and replenished by precipitation. Adverse effects of climate on freshwater systems aggravate the impacts of other stresses, such as population growth, changing economic activity, land-use change, and urbanization (Kundzewicz et al. 2007).

Changing climate patterns will have important implications for water ­availability especially mean run-off changes (Milly et al. 2005), glacier melt during summer season, ground water recharge and floods (Kleinen and Petschel-Held 2007) and geomorphic processes including erosion, slope stability, channel changes, and ­sediment transport (Dennis et al. 2003). Climate models projected increased ­precipitation in high latitudes and parts of the tropics, and decrease in some ­sub-tropical and lower mid-latitude regions (Bates et al. 2008).

Agriculture accounts for about 70% of all water use worldwide and up to 95% in many developing countries and thus influences both the quantity and quality of water available for other human uses (FAO 2007). Over 277 million hectares are classified as irrigated land (FAO 2007) and of all sectoral water demands, the ­irrigation sector will be affected most strongly by climate change, as well as by changes in the effectiveness of irrigation methods (Kundzewicz et al. 2007). Given the dominant role of irrigated agriculture in global water use, management ­practices that increase the productivity of irrigation water use can greatly increase the ­availability of water for other human and environmental uses.

5.2 Distribution, Incidence and Intensity of Pests and Diseases

Changing weather patterns may help spread crop pests and diseases in the future. Climate change and increasing climate variability is creating favourable conditions for animal and plant pests and diseases. The movement of plant pests, animal ­diseases and invasive aquatic organisms across physical and political boundaries threatens food security. For example, Bluetongue, a sheep disease is moving north into more temperate zones of Europe (Van Wuijckhuise et al. 2006). Fleming and Tatchell (1995) predicted that over the next 50 years, aphids will appear at least 8 days earlier in the spring. This may increase their severity as pests, will also depend partly on how the phenologies of their host plants change (Harrington et al. 2007). Increased plant density will tend to increase leaf surface wetness and leaf surface wetness duration, and so make infection by foliar pathogens more likely (Huber and Gillespie 1992). Changes in plant architecture may affect microclimate and thus risks of infection.

Altered weather patterns can increase crop vulnerability to infection, pest infestations, and weeds. Range of crop weeds, insects, and diseases are projected to expand to higher latitudes (Rosenzweig et al. 2001). In particular, CO2-temperature and CO2-precipitation interactions are recognised as the key factors in determining plant damage from pests in future (Easterling et al. 2007; Zvereva and Kozlov 2006). New vectors, selection and recombination of disease may occur when ­animal species and breeds and plant species mix or when insect pests and vectors are introduced without their natural enemies. Climate change may result in changes in species composition and interactions that will augment the emergence of new diseases and pests. Climate change would impact vector-borne diseases and may also result in new transmission pathways and different host species (Garrett et al. 2006).

Entry and establishment, emergence and outbreaks of animal and plant pests and diseases have historically resulted in major food problems either directly through yield reductions of food crops and losses in animal production, or indirectly through yield reduction of cash crops (e.g. rinderpest, potato blight, locusts). Climate change would result in a higher volatility and, therefore, is likely to cause additional crises in local agricultural production, in particular for small farmers and those involved in subsistence agriculture and aquaculture.

Redistribution of plant pests and changes in pest incidence and intensity may result in additional and inappropriate pesticide use. Consequently, there may be higher levels of pesticide and veterinary drugs in food. Changes in rainfall, ­temperature and relative humidity may favour the growth of fungi that produce mycotoxins and thus may make food such as groundnuts, wheat, maize, rice and coffee unsuitable for human and animal consumption.

5.3 Impacts of Extreme Weather/Climate Events

Changes in extreme weather and climate events have significant impacts and are among the most serious challenges to society in coping with a changing climate (Karl et al. 2008). Natural disasters are increasing, with more frequent and more severe occurrences fuelled by global warming. Extreme events drive changes in natural and human systems much more than average climate. FAO/GIEWS data indicate that sudden-onset disasters – especially floods – have increased from 14% of all natural disasters in the 1980s to 20% in the 1990s and 27% since 2000 (FAO 2008e).

There is growing evidence that a warming world will be accompanied by changes in the intensity, duration, frequency and geographic extent of weather and climate extremes. The frequency of heavy precipitation events will be very likely to increase over most areas during the twenty-first century, with consequences for the risk of floods. At the same time, the proportion of land surface in extreme drought at any one time is projected to increase, in addition to a tendency for drying during summer, especially in the sub-tropics, low and mid latitudes (Bates et al. 2008). Changes in extremes are already observed to be having impacts on social, economic and natural systems, and future changes associated with continued ­warming will present additional challenges (Karl et al. 2008). The damage and loss due to hydro-meteorological disasters in terms of economic value has increased dramatically over the past few decades. The damage trends have increased significantly despite ongoing adaptation efforts that have been taking place (Mills 2005).

Worldwide, flood occurrence has risen from about 50 floods per year in the ­mid-1980s to more than 200 today (CRED 2008). As sudden-onset emergencies leave much less time for planning and response than slow-onset ones, these trends have important implications for risk reduction measures and the mobilization of resources needed to prepare for, and respond to, emergencies in order to save lives and protect livelihood systems.

5.4 Increased Vulnerability of Fishery-Dependent Communities

Fisheries employ more than 200 million people worldwide – 98% from developing countries. Fish products provide more than 2.8 billion people with about 20% of their average per capita intake of animal protein (FAO 2008d). Fish contributes to, or exceeds, 50% of total animal protein intake in some small island developing states. Fisheries and aquaculture are threatened by climate change due to higher water temperatures, rising sea levels, melting glaciers, changes in ocean salinity and acidity, more cyclones in some areas, less rain in others, shifting patterns and abundance of fish stocks.

Fishery-dependent communities may also face increased vulnerability in terms of less stable livelihoods, decrease in availability of fish, and safety risks due to fishing in harsher weather conditions and further from their landing sites ­(Hall-Spencer et al. 2008; McClanahan et al. 2008). Direct effects of increasing temperature on marine and freshwater ecosystems are already evident, with rapid poleward shifts in regions and changes in distribution and production (Drinkwater 2005). Evidence from the Pacific and the Atlantic suggests that nutrient supply to the upper productive layer of the Ocean is declining due to reductions in the maridional overturning circulation and up welling (Curry and Mauritzen 2005). Most of the large global marine-capture fisheries are affected by regional climate variability associated with El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadel Oscillation (Lehodey et al. 2003) and North Atlantic Oscillation (Drinkwater et al. 2003).

Vulnerability of fishery-dependent communities in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) will stem from their resource dependency and exposure to extreme weather events. Combined effect of predicted warming, the relative importance of fisheries to national economies and diets, and limited societal capacity to adapt to potential impacts are prioritised as reasons of vulnerability of countries to climate change (Allison et al. 2009). Climatic changes could increase physiological stress on cultured stock and affect productivity and increase vulnerability to diseases and, in turn, impose higher risks. Extreme weather events could result in escapes of farmed stock and contribute to reductions in genetic diversity of the wild stock, affecting biodiversity more widely. However, new opportunities and positive impacts emerging from such areas as changes in species and new markets also could be part of future changes.

Stability of supply will be impacted by changes in seasonality, increased ­variance of ecosystem productivity, increased supply risks. Access to fish for food will be affected by changes distribution of fish species and in livelihoods combined with impacts transferred from other sectors such as increases in prices of substitute food products and competition for supply. Utilization of the nutrients and the ­nutritional value of fishery products will be affected by changing supply quality and market chain disruptions (FAO 2008d).

5.5 Impact on Agriculture Biodiversity

The biodiversity associated with agricultural ecosystems is generally regarded as the multitude of plants, animals and micro-organisms at genetic, species and ­ecosystem levels. Agriculture biodiversity plays sustaining key functions for food production and food and livelihood security (FAO 2007) and is the outcome of the interactions among the environment, genetic resources and the management systems and practices used by farmers.

Biodiversity and climate change are closely linked. Biodiversity is threatened by climate change, but biodiversity resources can reduce the impacts of climate change on population and ecosystems. Observed impacts of climate change on vulnerable systems such as polar and high mountain ecosystems have showed greater ­vulnerability due to temperature increase. IPCC fourth assessment report (IPCC 2007b) projected an increasing risk of species extinction with higher confidence as warming proceeds. The report elaborated that approximately 20–30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5–2.5°C over 1980–1999 levels. Increases in sea surface temperature of about 1–3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals.

Concerns have been raised in recent years over the loss of agricultural biodiversity due to expansion of cropland into low productive rainfed lands (Nellemann et al. 2009) and homogenization of agricultural production systems. Two major concerns are: increasing levels of genetic vulnerability and genetic erosion (FAO 1997). Genetic vulnerability occurs where a widely used crop or livestock variety is ­susceptible to changing climatic conditions. Genetic erosion is the loss of genetic resources through the extinction of a livestock variety or crop. Climate change and increased climate variability may increase genetic vulnerability and intensify genetic erosion. Without proper management of agricultural biodiversity, some key functions of the agro-ecosystem may be lost, such as maintenance of nutrient and water cycles, pest and disease regulation, pollination and land erosion control.

6 Expanding Biofuel Production and Food Security

Biofuel crops, increasingly an important source of energy is being promoted in the context of their critical role in adaptation to climate change and mitigation of ­carbon emissions. Biofuels currently account for 0.2% of total global energy ­consumption, 1.5% of total road transport fuels, 2% of global crop land, 7% of global coarse grain use and 9% of global vegetable oil use (FAO 2009d). These shares are projected to rise over the coming decades. Climate change and expanding biofuel production is likely to lead to competition for access to land. For the millions of farmers, pastoralists, fisher folk and forest dwellers with no formal land tenure rights, this increased competition poses a threat to their livelihoods.

Investments in biofuels have grown rapidly since beginning of this century. Steenblik (2007) estimated US corn-based ethanol production at roughly 18 billion litres in 2006 followed by Brazil at 17 billion litres of ethanol from sugarcane. A growing number of developing countries are beginning to invest in feedstocks for the production of ethanol and biodiesel.

Unsustainable biofuel production will negatively affect the food security of low income food deficit countries. The combined effect of rising oil and food prices has stressed many developing economies and poor households, because many of the low-income food-deficit countries are also net importers (Rung and Senauer 2007). The high demand for energy and the potential of biofuels are no guarantee that small farmers and poor people in developing countries will receive the benefits.

7 Adapting to Climate Change in Agriculture

7.1 Cost of Adaptation

Immediate action is vital to increase the resilience of rural people to climate change and help them adapt to new conditions. The Stern’s report (Stern 2006) emphasized that taking action early on climate change would greatly reduce estimated costs. It is estimated that the cost of removing most of the climate change risks to an acceptable level would be around 1% of global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2050, if decisive action starts now.

A range of methods exists for costing adaptation in agriculture (Parry et al. 2009). The top-down approach used for costing by McCarl (2007)) for UNFCC report on “adaptation options for agriculture, forestry and fisheries” estimated an additional funding of 12.6 billion without mitigation and US$11.3 billion with mitigation in the year 2030. The study of Fischer et al. (2007)) provides a cost of US$8 billion for adapting crop and irrigation systems to climate change by 2030. Cline (2007) estimated US$14.5 billion using simple crop growth models for the year 2030 for reduction in the value of global crop outputs due to climate change. Recent ­estimates by Nelson et al (2009) for IFPRI put the aggressive agriculture productivity investments of US$7.1–7.3 billion to raise calorie consumption enough to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the health and well being of children.

Global warming is already underway and adaptation strategies are now a matter of urgency, especially for the most vulnerable poor countries, which are even now being disproportionately affected. It is essential to facilitate adaptation, notably through better risk management and safety nets to protect the most vulnerable (World Bank, 2009). Many adaptation measures need to focus on strengthening measures that already exist, such as sustainable natural resource management, water management and enhanced water productivity, climate risk management, early warning systems, disaster risk management, rural investments to reduce the impacts of climate variability on food security, through crop insurance and ­incentives that encourage farmers to adopt better agricultural and land use ­practices. This chapter provides a brief background on the potential adaptation strategies towards enhanced food security.

7.2 Adaptation Strategies to Enhance Food Security Under Changing Climate

7.2.1 Sustainable Natural Resource Management

Adaptation efforts must be strengthened to enhance the production in a sustainable way to ensure that a growing world population has access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food under changing climate. Disruption or decline in global and local food supplies due to climate change can be avoided through more efficient natural resource management, improved crop varieties, improved land cultivation, farm and livestock management and the development of crop varieties and breeds that posses potential of adapting to changing climatic conditions.

The specific action to be implemented include: prioritizing location specific ­adaptation measures considering existing natural resources; enterprise ­diversification; water resource management; increasing water productivity; and diversified livelihood systems; institutional strengthening; integration of traditional farmer practices and gender perspectives into adaptation strategies. Integrated watershed management, land use and land cover planning depending on the available natural resources and socio-economic needs of the local communities are considered sustainable.

Adaptation measures range from temporal and spatial variations in production systems. Better protection against temperature changes, changing rainfall ­variability and patterns, salinization though sea level rise, and pest attacks require adjusting planting or fishing dates, rotations, multiple cropping/species diversification, ­crop-livestock pisciculture systems and agroforestry. Investing in soil, water and biodiversity conservation and development include options such as building soil biomass, restoring degraded lands, rehabilitating rangelands, harvesting and recycling water, developing adapted cultivars and breeds, protecting aquatic ecosystems) in order to maintain long-term productivity.

7.2.2 Water Management and Enhanced Water Productivity

Reducing Uncertainty in Water AvailabilityAs a consequence of climate change, farmers will face growing unpredictability and variability in water supplies and increasing frequency of droughts and floods. Open access or loose property rights on water resources and irrigation systems lead to the overexploitation of aquifers and unsustainable irrigation practices that exhaust, contaminate and increase irrigation costs. Land degradation is also an outcome of inefficient use of water resources and inadequate irrigation management practices, resulting in productivity reductions and increasing losses of cropland.

Current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with the impacts of climate change on water resources and water supply reliability in ­agriculture. In many locations, water management cannot satisfactorily cope even with current climate variability. As a first step, improved incorporation of information about current climate variability into water-related management would assist adaptation to longer-term climate change impacts (Bates et al. 2008).

Water HarvestingWater harvesting refers to a number of technologies, traditional and modern, that either harvest surface runoff or increase water infiltration. These include water channels and dams to catch and convey water, techniques to increase soil moisture content, and reservoirs for irrigation and household use and to reduce flood peaks. Pretty et al. (2006) confirmed that these practices also provide a notable improvement in water productivity, especially for rainfed ­agricultural systems Water-harvesting practices are known to enhance the surface and subsurface water resources.

Investment in IrrigationIn Africa, less than 5% of cropland is irrigated. Large benefits could accrue to small farmers by expansion of irrigated land to increase and stabilize the level of production, while also minimizing the role of rainfall uncertainty in agriculture. Irrigation investment projects have high rates of return, estimated as exceeding 15% and even reaching 30% in sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank 2007). Significant gains in terms of welfare improvements are also expected from expanding irrigation investment. Increasing investment in irrigation by 1% has been estimated as having reduced poverty by nearly 5% in Kenya (Thurlow et al. 2007).

Soil and Water ConservationNumerous studies have established the positive impact of soil and water conservation practices in enhancing the water productivity. No-till systems are found to reduce water runoff, increase water infiltration, and reduce soil erosion (Lal 2007; Humberto Blanco-Canqui and Lal 2008). Conservation tillage combined with residue management and proper fertilizer use can help to preserve soil moisture, maximum water infiltration, increase carbon storage, minimise nutrient run-off and increase crop yields. Rotational grazing, improved livestock distribution and increased tree cover on pastures have been found to improve water recharge.

Enhancing Water ProductivityThe ability to produce more food for a growing world population has improved significantly in recent decades as a result of expansion in irrigated cropland (FAO 2008a). Increasing the proportion of irrigated agricultural land has provided a solid base for boosting productivity and reducing the volatility of agricultural yields. With demand for water rising and climate change imposing further restrictions, efficiency in the management of available water resources becomes necessary for productivity increases in agriculture and for food security.

7.2.3 Biodiversity Conservation

The conservation of crop and livestock genetic diversity may be ensured either ex situ or in situ. Ex situ methods include seed and gene banks, while in situ conservation takes place in farmers’ fields, ponds or forests. The two approaches are complementary; the ex situ collections preserve a static set of genetic resources, while in situ efforts preserve a dynamic process of evolution, as genetic resources adapt to changing pressures from natural and human selection.

The necessary measures for biodiversity conservation in agriculture depend on the type of biodiversity to be conserved on production systems and location. The three main ways in which farmers service institutions and policy-makers can ­contribute to biodiversity conservation are: (i) reducing agricultural expansion into biodiversity-rich lands; (ii) adopting agricultural production systems that support the joint production of biodiversity conservation and agricultural products; and (iii) conserving agricultural biodiversity.

A wide range of methods exist for conserving agricultural biodiversity, depending on the specific component that is focused upon. Methods differ in terms of the degree of human intervention in the natural system, ranging from highly managed ex situ gene and seed banks to maintaining wild relatives of cultivated species in wilderness areas. Measures also include the on-farm conservation and utilization of traditional varieties of crops and livestock, which are often highly adapted to their local environments. Diversity can be promoted by providing ­incentives to maintain a heterogeneous set of crop varieties in production, particularly traditional varieties, or by managing field margins to encourage ­pest-suppressing natural enemies and pollinators.

Agricultural biodiversity is directly linked to agricultural production, working within agricultural market channels to provide incentives to farmers to conserve agricultural diversity is an important strategy. In recent years, the international community has provided support to farmers for conserving agricultural biodiversity in situ. These programmes seek to increase the availability and productivity of diversity in production systems, or enhance the returns to maintaining diverse ­systems. Increasing the demand for diverse products through the establishment of labelling, certification or origin schemes and increasing the diversity of agricultural seed supply systems (FAO 2006) are the applicable strategies.

There is an urgent need to determine the distribution of biodiversity for food and agriculture both in the wild and in the fields and assess its vulnerability to climate change. Matching biodiversity distribution mapping with different climate change scenarios is a basic requirement for countries to develop conservation strategies.

7.2.4 Climate Risk Management

The risk of more complex, frequent, intense or unpredictable climate-related extreme events associated with global temperature increase, changing precipitation patterns and sea-level rise coupled with gradual changes, suggests the need for a renewed focus on the climate risk management. Climate risk management need to play an increasingly key role in dealing with the impacts of climate change on agriculture and food security.

Adaptation practices require extensive high quality data and information on climate, and on agricultural, environmental and social systems affected by climate, with a view to carrying out realistic vulnerability and risk assessments and looking towards the knowledge on areas of concern. Vulnerability assessment observes impacts of variability and changes in mean climate (inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability) on agricultural systems given the knowledge on biophysical and socioeconomic context and available adaptation options. However, agricultural production systems have their own dynamics and adaptation has a particular emphasis on future agriculture and the potential benefits of adaptation depend on sustained policy support.

Climate risk management contribute to facilitate adaptation to climate variability and change, including: (i) a historical climate data archive; an archive on climate impacts on agriculture; (ii) monitoring tools using systematic meteorological ­observations; (iii) climate data analysis (to determine the patterns of inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability and extremes); (iv) information on the characteristics of system vulnerability and adaptation effectiveness such as resilience, critical thresholds and coping mechanisms; and (v) crop weather insurance indices to reduce the risk of climate impacts for lower-income farmers.

Provision of advance climate information and integration with operational crop models to develop alternative scenarios for operational decision making, and ­capacity building is part of the climate risk management framework. Climate ­forecasts and early warning can be a useful part of the decision making process for adaptation of food systems to climate change (Challinor 2009). Decision makers must therefore prepare for the range of possibilities, and often employ risk management strategies that reduce negative impacts of climate extremes and ­inefficient use of natural resources (Hansen and Sivakumar 2006). Adjustment of food systems and its dependent people to climate fluctuations are not new, but ­proactive management taking advantage of recent advances in climate prediction has raised the prospects to manage the climate risks and opportunities in ­agriculture. Several case studies have demonstrated the benefits of localized adaptation ­strategies conditioned by reliable climate information to improve the production and income of smallholders (Sivakumar and Hansen 2007).

Agricultural policies, national extension services and national meteorological services must therefore develop synergies to ensure that planning and the management of crops, livestock, forests and fisheries benefits from weather and climate-based advice. Farmers, herders, fishers and forest-dwellers need the benefit of weather and climate-based advisories because food systems are expanding more and more into marginal and vulnerable areas. With the modern and low cost ­information and communication technologies (ICTs), information can now be ­systematically collected in real-time from villages, analyzed centrally and management options can be prioritized and communicated to farmers. Climate information for decision making have the potential to optimize the economic return from farm, livestock and fishery activities; optimize the use of land, water, fertilizer, pesticides etc., in the light of reducing short-term risk.

7.2.5 Pest and Diseases Management

Increased climate extremes may trigger plant diseases and pest outbreaks (Gan 2004). Control and management of new diseases and pests are emerging challenges under changing climate. Governments need to strengthen national animal and plant health services as a top priority and need to focus on taxonomy, modelling, ­population ecology and epidemiology. Governments should also consider how to better consolidate and organise their national animal and plant health services. Investments in early control and detection systems will be key to avoid the higher costs of eradication and management.

New research efforts should focus on identification of resistance gene in hosts against pest and diseases, which is insensitive to temperature increase. New heat stable antimicrobial compounds derived from plant sources have the potential to meet future challenges.

Monitoring pest incidences need to be strengthened and new thresholds has to be followed to decide on the pest and disease management methods. Efforts should be initiated in developing new knowledge systems and new Integrated Pest ­management (IPM) technologies to counter new pests or the intensification of new ones (SP-IPM 2008). Integrated pest management approach can be further elaborated and strengthened taking into consideration of emerging new climate related risks. The aim to minimise the amount of pesticides by employing biological, ­cultural and chemical methods enhances food safety.

7.2.6 Fisheries and Aquaculture

Better Use of ProductionAquaculture production to just maintain the current dietary production of fish by 2050 will require a 56% increase as well as new ­alternatives to wild fisheries for the supply of aquaculture feed (Nellemann et al. 2009). Losses caused by spoilage amount to about 10–12 million tonnes per year and an estimated 20 million tonnes of fish a year are discarded at sea. Reducing post-harvest losses and increasing the percentage of use for direct human consumption by creating better storage facilities suitable for changing climatic conditions offers opportunities for better use of production.

Ecosystem Approach for AdaptationClimate change compromises the ­sustainability and productivity of key economic and environmental resources, but it also presents opportunities, especially in aquaculture. Adaptation strategies should be based on an “ecosystem approach”, defined as comprehensive and holistic ­processes to understanding and anticipating ecological change, and developing appropriate management responses (FAO 2008).

8 Agriculture and Climate Change Mitigation

The mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will determine to a large extent the long-term global mean temperature increase and the corresponding ­climate change impacts that can be avoided (IPCC 2007a). Agriculture plays an important role as a carbon “sink” through its capacity to sequester and store greenhouse gases, especially as carbon in soils and in plants and trees. Collective action is needed to effectively tackle climate change and reduce the costs of mitigation (Stern 2007).

Agriculture practices collectively can make a significant contribution at low cost to increasing soil carbon sinks, to GHG emission reduction, and by contributing biomass feedstock for energy use (IPCC 2007c). Agriculture has the technical potential to mitigate between 5.5 and 6.0 Gt of CO2per year by 2030, mainly through soil carbon sequestration (89%). Additionally, several agriculture-based mitigation options generate significant co-benefits for both food security and ­climate change adaptation (FAO 2009c). The actions that have large mitigation potential and high co-benefits are increasing soil carbon sequestration through improved crop and grazing land management (e.g., improved agronomic practices, conservation tillage, and crop residue management), forestry and agro-forestry initiatives, improving efficiency of nutrient management and ­restoration of organic soils and degraded lands. Mitigation is also possible with improved water and rice management and improved livestock and manure management.

In the forestry sector, the mitigation practices include reduced emission from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), sustainable forest management and forest restoration, including afforestation and reforestation. About 65% of the total mitigation potential is located in the tropics and about 50% of the total could be achieved by reducing emission from deforestation (IPCC 2007c). The adoption of agroforestry, rehabilitation of degraded forests and establishment of forest plantation and silvopastoral systems count among the many land-use changes that can generate above-ground carbon sequestration (Palm et al. 2005). Co-benefits of REDD, for instance alleviating poverty, improving governance, conserving biodiversity and providing other environmental services have been part of the debate and greatly enhanced (Campbell 2009).

Besides carbon sequestration in the above ground biomass, significant potential exists for sequestration of carbon in soils. Total global soil carbon sink ­capacity, approximately equal to the historic carbon loss of 78 ± 12 Pg, can be filled at the potential maximum rate of about 1 Pg C/year (Lal and Follett 2009). Strategies to increase the soil carbon pool include soil restoration and woodland regeneration, no-tillage farming, cover crops, nutrient management, manuring and sledge ­application, improved grazing, water conservation, and harvesting, efficient irrigation, ­agroforestry and growing energy crops on spare lands (Lal 2004). Conservation agriculture is practiced in about 95 million hectares which provide significant soil carbon sequestration services (Derpsch 2005). Cropping systems could be changed to achieve substantial soil carbon sequestration. Around 30% (4.7 million km2) of the land characterized by medium-to -high potential for carbon sequestration is located in areas where agricultural production is practiced, representing 15% of total croplands (FAO 2008a). Carbon sequestration provides multiple associated benefits as the resultant increase in root biomass and soil organic matter, enhance water and nutrient, availability and plant uptake.

Existing methodological options that can mitigate GHG emissions from the ­livestock sector are discussed by Steinfeld et al. (2006). Mitigation options in the pastoral systems of the tropics are reviewed by Reid et al. (2004). Carbon can be sequestered from improved management in grasslands which include conversion of cropland to ­grassland, reduction in grazing intensity, avoiding biomass burning, improving degraded lands, reducing erosion and changes in species mix. Although methane emission from ­livestock is projected to increase (Herrero et al. 2008) in future, technical options do exist to mitigate the emission (Thornton et al. 2009). Mitigation activities have the greatest chance of success if they build on traditional pastoral institutions and ­knowledge, while providing pastoralists with food security benefits at the same time.

Emission reductions due to biofuels, feedstocks and associated production ­technologies are estimated to be smallest (10–30%) for ethanol from maize in the United States and largest (70–90%) for ethanol from sugarcane in Brazil and ­second-generation biofuels (FAO 2009c). These emission reductions will be smaller to the extent that increased biofuel production accelerates conversion of forests or grasslands to cropland.

9 Integrated Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently (Howden et al. 2007). Integrated strategies involving adaptation, mitigation and short and long-term approaches are required to overcome the multiple threats of climate change on food security. Effective implementation of integrated strategies will require increased investment in agricultural development and natural resources management at all levels. Adaptation interventions confirms the need for multiple and integrated ­pathways across sectors to improve adaptive response of local communities. ­Short-term and long-term adaptive measures in agriculture linked with focus on future anticipated risks need to be integrated into cross sectoral planning.

The community based adaptation interventions promote integrated strategies to enhance the community resilience and livelihood assets (FAO 2008f). These include, for example: (i) undertaking physical adaptive measures, such as link canals, irrigation, storage facilities for efficient water conveyance and drainage; (ii) adjusting existing agricultural practices to match future anticipated risks, such as adjustment of cropping pattern, selection of adapted crop varieties, diversification of cropping and/or farming systems, better storage of seeds and fodder, more efficient use of irrigation water on rice paddies, more efficient use of nitrogen application on cultivated fields, and improved water management including water harvesting; (iii) introducing alternative enterprises and farming systems such as drought tolerant tree species, goat rearing and poultry production and agroforestry; (iv) making socio-economic adjustments, e.g. livelihood diversification or market facilitation; (v) strengthening local institutions and self-help capacities together with risk insurance, risk sharing mechanisms; (vi) strengthening formal institutions and community based organizations; (vii) formulating policy to catalyze enhancement of adaptive livelihood opportunities; and (viii) promoting awareness and knowledge sharing.

Climate change response strategies need to be integrated into the overall ­development agenda. A successful climate strategy will motivate rapid reductions in emissions as well as major investments in adaptation. Such a strategy needs to address the warming climate’s connection to food production. Hallegatte (2009) examined integrated strategies that involved: (i) no-regret strategies that yields benefits even in absence of climate change; (ii) favoring reversible and flexible options; (iii) buying safety margins in new investments; (iv) promoting soft adaptation strategies, including long-term prospective; and (v) reducing decision time horizons. Adaptation-mitigation interactions also call for integrated design and assessment of adaptation and mitigation policies.

10 Capacity Building

The capacity to identify, collect and share data, use information and methods and build knowledge relevant for climate change adaptation, mitigation and food ­security is critical because of rapidly changing climatic, environmental and socio-economic conditions. Extension services need to be strengthened substantially in order to address adaptation and mitigation if it will have to provide an efficient interface between policy-makers and the farming community.

Country capacity to assess the impacts of climate change and apply adaptation and mitigation measures in agriculture, forestry and fisheries needs strengthening at national and local levels. Further, to implement national climate change and food security policies, there is need for in-depth knowledge of appropriate methods and tools as well as awareness of available funding mechanisms, such as the carbon market and adaptation funds.

11 Agriculture Research

Agricultural research need to provide several new location specific adaptation and mitigation options. However, research for a rapidly changing climatic condition is different from research for managing past and current climate risks. New ­investment in research and development (R&D) is the most productive way to support ­agriculture under changing climate. The priority areas of research are improving data collection, dissemination and analysis, developing varieties tolerant to drought, extended floods and salinity, enhancing water productivity and pest and disease resistance. Significant public and private investments in research is required if ­agriculture is to benefit from the use of new technologies and techniques (FAO 2009a). Adaptation and mitigation in agriculture requires participatory and ­practical learning and action research to develop and replicate innovative adaptive ­technologies jointly with farmers, extension services and research institutions.

Traditional and indigenous knowledge and local biodiversity are one of the many suitable entry points, but likely to be insufficient in changing climate ­conditions. In addition, methodologies, farm management practices, crops and crop varieties need to be developed for future conditions. This requires strong national and international agricultural, forestry and fisheries research efforts. Crop and ­livestock productivity-enhancing research, including biotechnology, will be ­essential to help overcome stresses due to climate change (Nelson et al. 2009). Research results need to be public in an enabling environment in which methods, germplasm, crop varieties and animal breeds are accessible for use by most vulnerable people and introduction in adaptation and mitigation programs.

12 Sustainable Bioenergy

Bioenergy presents both opportunities and risks for food security. Bioenergy meets approximately 8–10% of global energy demand, around 80% of it as solid biomass for heating and cooking. Liquid biofuels account for less than 2% of road transport fuels worldwide: this is projected to rise to nearly 5% by 2030 (FAO 2007). This expansion could revitalise the agriculture sector, foster rural development and ­alleviate poverty. But if not managed sustainably, it could seriously threaten food security. Policy makers have a major role in ensuring that bioenergy is developed sustainably, safeguarding food security and ensuring other benefits such as market and technology promotion, participatory processes and social ­protection (FAO 2008g).

Sustainable bioenergy need greater attention at this point of time when ­agriculture has to play a major role to supply food, fodder, fiber and recently energy is added to the list. Without an understanding of these new and complex interactions, it will be difficult to make the most fundamental policy decisions. Bioenergy can reduce ­emissions by substituting for transport fuels and replacing fossil fuels such as coal for power and heat generation. But, bioenergy development can have impacts on water use, soil erosion and biodiversity conservation. A major problem with current patterns of biomass use for energy, particularly for traditional bioenergy systems in developing countries, is its low conversion efficiency, frequently as low as 10% (Kaltschmitt and Hartmann 2001), and related degradation of carbon stocks. Improving bioenergy efficiency is a fairly straightforward means of reducing carbon emissions and it represents a large potential source of carbon payments for those countries that currently depend on traditional bioenergy (Jürgens et al. 2006).

Access to energy is a critical factor in development and poverty alleviation. Sustainable energy supply responses must be complemented with policy measures that manage energy demand growth. Bioenergy, including liquid biofuels for ­transport, can play a role in ensuring sustainable energy supply, but its contribution will be limited. While traditional biomass use will dominate developing country energy systems for many years to come, modern bioenergy systems will only meet a small share of total energy demand. Other sources of bioenergy besides liquid biofuel (biodiesel, bioethanol) can be used for transport, including biogas and woody biomass transformed into electricity. These entail less risk but more ­technological issues to sort out but it is feasible now or in a relatively short term.

As a new source for agricultural investment biofuel demand can stimulate ­agricultural growth and poverty alleviation by creating income and employment, but only if it is produced sustainably with participation in growing markets. The best ways to reduce the competition between food and fuel is to develop better integrated food-energy systems, including: (i) intercropping food and fuel crops, (ii) agroforestry, (iii) using by products from agro processing units as feedstock to produce bioenergy. Liquid biofuels can be a sustainable form of energy, but only if safeguard measures are adopted to ensure that environmental and social risks are managed appropriately. However, an international approach is needed to agree and implement sustainability standards for biofuels without creating new trade barriers for developing countries.

13 FAO’s High Level Conference

In order to put agriculture, forestry, fisheries and food security on the international climate change agenda, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), in cooperation with the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) and the World Food Programme (WFP), has organized a High-Level Conference on “World Food Security: The Challenges of Climate Change and Bioenergy” held at FAO Headquarters in Rome, Italy on 3–5 June 2008.

In preparation for the Conference, eight expert meetings were held to assemble the best available knowledge through expert meetings on: (i) Climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry and fisheries; (ii) Climate change, water and food security; (iii) Climate-related trans-boundary pests and diseases, including relevant aquatic species; (iv) Climate change and disaster risk ­management; (v) Bioenergy policy, markets and trade and food security; (vi) Global perspectives and food and fuel security; (viii) Climate change and fisheries and aquaculture and (viii) Climate change and biodiversity for food and agriculture. Each of these expert meetings examined the opportunities and constraints for the agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, including cross-sectoral linkages between food security, rural development and the environment. Additionally, stakeholder consultations for civil society and the private sector were organized to bring in a broader range of views and experiences and to identify areas for collaboration.

13.1 Prioritized Policy Options

The key policy recommendations derived from the expert meetings and stakeholder consultations are presented below under different thematic areas:

13.1.1 Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

  • Adaptation measures need to focus on: climate change “hot spots” analysis, early warning systems, disaster risk management, crop insurance, incentives to adopt better agricultural and land use practices

  • Building capacity and awareness on climate change adaptation

  • Strengthening data collection, monitoring, analysis and dissemination within the national extension and research services

  • Promoting soil carbon sequestration as a potential option for mitigation in agriculture

13.1.2 Climate Change and Water

  • Integration of adaptation and mitigation measures for agricultural water management in national development plans

  • Promoting management measures to improve the water use efficiency in rainfed and irrigated agriculture

  • Developing knowledge on climate change and water, and share good practices among countries and regions

  • Integration of risk management in national policies and promoting better ­monitoring networks

  • Accessing adaptation funds to meet the challenges of water and food security

13.1.3 Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management

  • Enhance understanding of climate change impacts at local level

  • Diversifying livelihoods suitable for local conditions

  • Improving weather and climate forecasting and early warning systems

  • Risk management and contingency plans taking into consideration new and evolving risk scenarios

  • Adjustment of land use plans considering climate change projections

  • Cost/benefit analysis on structural mitigation measures

13.1.4 Climate-Related Trans-boundary Pests and Diseases

  • Strengthening national animal and plant health services

  • Focusing on basic sciences – taxonomy, modeling, population ecology and epidemiology

  • Consolidation and organizing national animal and plant health services

  • Investing in early control and detection systems, including broader inspections

13.1.5 Climate Change, Fisheries and Aquaculture

  • Defining and implementing adaptation strategies based on ecosystem approach

  • Developing appropriate management responses to adapt to anticipated ecological change

13.1.6 Climate Change, Biofuels and Land

  • Promoting sound land tenure policies and planning

  • Ensuring land tenure security to mitigate climate change

  • Encouraging investments in sustainable land use practices

13.1.7 Bioenergy and Food Security

  • Ensuring sustainable bioenergy development

  • Safeguarding food security and ensuring that benefits include market and technology promotion and encouraging participatory processes

13.1.8 Climate Change and Biodiversity

  • Assessment and distribution of biodiversity for food and agriculture both in the wild and in the fields

  • Assessment of impact of climate change on agriculture biodiversity

  • Biodiversity distribution mapping with different climate change scenarios

The Civil Society Organization (CSO) and Non Governmental Organization (NGO) forum reaffirmed that food production should be given the highest priority. In that context, it is emphasized that the diversion of production to bioenergy crops should in every case be handled with caution. The Small Island Developing States (SIDS) forum stressed the need for increased attention, both human and financial resources, to assist SIDS to mitigate the impacts of climate change on their food security. The Africa forum insisted on the fact that local knowledge has always been underestimated and emphasized the need to give importance to indigenous solutions and build a bridge between traditional knowledge and technology. The need to share successful experiences of small farmers in adaptation to climate change and farmer to farmer networks were suggested.

13.2 Conference Declaration

Following significant discussion and negotiations, the conference concluded with the adoption by acclamation of a declaration calling on the international ­community to increase assistance for developing countries, in particular the least developed countries and those that are most negatively affected by high food prices. The countries agreed that the issues of food security, bioenergy and climate change are all closely linked.

It is essential to address the fundamental question of how to increase the resilience of present food production systems to challenges posed by climate change.

The conference urged governments to assign appropriate priority to the ­agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors, in order to create opportunities for the world’s smallholder farmers and fishers, including indigenous people, in particular vulnerable areas, to participate in, and benefit from financial mechanisms and investment flows to support climate change adaptation, mitigation and technology development, transfer and dissemination.

On bioenergy, the conference stressed the need to address the challenges and opportunities posed by biofuels, in view of the world’s food security, energy and sustainable development needs. The conference concluded that in-depth studies are necessary to ensure that production and use of biofuels is sustainable and take into account the need to achieve and maintain global food security. The conference called upon relevant inter-governmental organizations, national governments, partnerships, the private sector, and civil society, to foster a coherent, effective and results-oriented international dialogue on biofuels in the context of food security and sustainable development.

14 Conclusions

Climate change combined with the demand for alternative energy possibly from biofuels produced from food crops will be a challenge for future food security. Agriculture is most weather dependent and climate sensitive sector. Small farmers, marginal ethnic groups, indigenous people, livestock herders, forest dependent communities, fishers living in vulnerable areas will be affected by most of the ­climate phenomenon manifest due to climate change. Developing countries, Small Island Developing States, Least Development Countries that already vulnerable to climate extremes, low incomes and high incidence of hunger and poverty are expected to be adversely affected by climate change.

Climate change adaptation strategies are now a matter of urgency, especially for the most vulnerable communities, which are even now being disproportionately affected. On the one hand, potential adaptation options in agriculture have mitigation synergies, and similarly on the other hand, several agriculture-based mitigation options for climate change could generate significant benefits for both food security and climate change adaptation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration through forestry and agro-forestry initiatives and tillage practices, improving ­efficiency of nutrient management and restoring degraded lands are examples of actions that have large mitigation potential and high co-benefits.

Adaptation to climate change including the ability to mitigate and cope with extreme weather events will be necessary to ensure food security in both the short and long-term. The practices having strong adaptation and mitigation synergies in agriculture, livestock production, fisheries and forestry may offer new opportunities for financing and benefit smallholder farmers. However, agriculture has to make a strong presence in climate change negotiations. There are constraints which includes lack of sufficient data, monitoring and policy and institutional frameworks. There are innovative policy options already exist and new strategies are being developed continuously and are expected to provide necessary mechanisms to promote more resilient adaptation and mitigation practices without compromising food security.

Climate change combined with the demand for alternative energy possibly from biofuels produced from food crops is capable of reducing the availability of land, and water for food production. Bioenergy can contribute to rural income, ­supply rural households with electricity and heat, and mitigate climate change – by substituting fossil fuels. However, if biofuels are produced unsustainably, their contribution to mitigating climate change is negative. It is the challenge how best to respond to the new opportunities, while making sure people can continue to grow or buy adequate food.