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A Comparative Study of the China Factor in Taiwan and Hong Kong Elections

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Taiwan’s Political Re-Alignment and Diplomatic Challenges

Part of the book series: Politics and Development of Contemporary China ((PDCC))

Abstract

This chapter probes the economic dimension of the China factor in Taiwan and Hong Kong politics. We discuss how economic integration efforts affect elections and party competitions in smaller states neighboring China. Research on globalization suggests that freer international trade redistributes wealth among big and small states and reshapes local or regional political cleavages. Growing inequalities among and within these states could consequently reinforce localist identities and pro-independence movements. In the case of China, economic integration manifested in recent free trade treaties with Taiwan and Hong Kong coincides with the rise of localism and state-wide protests against further integration. In this study, we examine the micro-level connections between economic integration and political disintegration using new survey data about public perceptions of China in these societies.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Thomas L. Friedman, The world is flat: A brief history of the twenty-first century (CITY: Macmillan, 2005); Andreas Bergh and Therese Nilsson, “Do liberalization and globalization increase income inequality?” European Journal of Political Economy 26, no. 4 (2010): 488–505.

  2. 2.

    Alesina, Alberto, Enrico Spolaore, and Romain Wacziarg. Economic integration and political disintegration. No. w6163. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1997; Alberto, Spolaore, and Wacziarg, “Economic Integration,” 1276–1296; Michele Ruta, “Economic theories of political (dis) integration,” Journal of Economic Surveys 19, no. 1 (2005): 1–21.

  3. 3.

    The term “political integration” covers a wide spectrum of “union” forms, including full unification on one end and loose community or regional bloc-based or common institutions on the other. In the case of Taiwan, integration could be in the form ranging from joining the PRC to becoming one country following the Hong Kong model under “one country, two systems” to a loose unionization adopting or adapting the Europe Common Market or European Community model. In this study, we do not limit our definition of political integration to any form but point to a general direction toward closer cooperation or agglomeration through common institutional developments.

  4. 4.

    Alesina, Spolaore, and Wacziarg, “Economic Integration,” 1276.

  5. 5.

    Ruta, “Economic theories,” 1–21.

  6. 6.

    Harold D. Clarke, Matthew Goodwin, and Paul Whiteley, Brexit: Why Britain Voted to Leave the European Union (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2017).

  7. 7.

    According to the trade pact, Taiwan would enjoy a tariff cut as much as $14 billion on 539 exports to China, and corresponding figures for China would be $3 billion and 267 exports. (See the BBC report titled “Historic Taiwan-China trade deal takes effect,” http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-11275274. See also Republic of China Mainland Affair Council document titled, “Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) Background,” http://www.mac.gov.tw/public/data/051116322071.pdf.)

  8. 8.

    Alesina, Spolaore, and Wacziarg, “Economic Integration,” 1291–2.

  9. 9.

    Patrick Bolton and Gerard Roland, “The breakup of nations: a political economy analysis,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 112, no. 4 (1997): 1057–1090.

  10. 10.

    Lloyd Gruber, “Globalization.”

  11. 11.

    Michele Ruta, “Economic theories,” 2.

  12. 12.

    Alesina, Alberto, Enrico Spolaore, and Romain Wacziarg. Economic integration and political disintegration. No. w6163. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1997; Alberto, Spolaore, and Wacziarg, “Economic Integration,” 1276–1296.

  13. 13.

    Alessandra Casella and Jonathan S. Feinstein, “Public goods in trade: on the formation of markets and jurisdictions,” International Economic Review (2002): 437–462.

  14. 14.

    Patrick Bolton and Gerard Roland, “Distributional conflicts, factor mobility, and political integration,” The American Economic Review 86, no. 2 (1996): 99–104.

  15. 15.

    Alberto Alesina and Enrico Spolaore, “War, peace, and the size of countries,” Journal of Public Economics 89, no. 7 (2005): 1333–1354; Ruta, “Economic theories,” 1–21.

  16. 16.

    Enrico Spolaore and Alberto Alesina, War, peace and the size of countries (Cambridge: Harvard Institute of Economic Research, Harvard University, 2001).

  17. 17.

    Ruta, “Economic theories,” 1–21.

  18. 18.

    Federico Etro, “International policy coordination with economic unions,” Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali (2002): 187–211.

  19. 19.

    Alberto Alesina and Enrico Spolaore, The size of nations (Cambridge: MIT Press, 2003).

  20. 20.

    Clarke, Goodwin, and Whiteley, Brexit.

  21. 21.

    Alesina, Spolaore, and Wacziarg, “Economic Integration,” 1293.

  22. 22.

    Alesina, Alberto, Enrico Spolaore, and Romain Wacziarg. Economic integration and political disintegration. No. w6163. National Bureau of Economic Research, 1997.

  23. 23.

    Ruta, “Economic theories,” 13; Alberto Alesina and Enrico Spolaore, “On the Number and Size of Nations,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 112, no. 4 (1997): 1027–056.

  24. 24.

    Robert P. Inman and Daniel L. Rubinfeld, “Rethinking federalism,” The Journal of Economic Perspectives 11, no. 4 (1997): 43–64; Ruta, “Economic theories,” 1–21.

  25. 25.

    Chien-min Chao, “Will economic integration between mainland China and Taiwan lead to a congenial political culture?” Asian Survey 43, no. 2 (2003): 280–304.

  26. 26.

    Chao, “Will Economic Integration,” 302.

  27. 27.

    S. Keng, “Limitations on China’s economic statecraft: China’s favor-granting policies and their political implications,” Issues and Studies 48, no. 3 (2009): 1–32; S. Keng, “Understanding integration and ‘spillover’ across the Taiwan Strait: Towards an analytical framework,” Taiwanese Identity in the Twenty-first Century: Domestic, Regional and Global Perspectives (2011): 155–175.

  28. 28.

    Stan Hok-wui Wong and Nicole Wu, “Can Beijing Buy Taiwan? An empirical assessment of Beijing’s agricultural trade concessions to Taiwan,” Journal of Contemporary China 25, no. 99 (2016): 353–371.

  29. 29.

    Ming Sing, “Hong Kong’s Tortuous Democratisation, op. cit.,” Hsin-chi Kuan, Power Dependence and Democratic Transition: The Case of Hong Kong, The China Quarterly 128 (1991): 774–793; Stan Hok-wui Wong, “Real estate elite, economic development, and political conflicts in postcolonial Hong Kong,” China Review 15, no. 1 (2015): 1–38.

  30. 30.

    Wei-chin Lee and Te-Yu Wang, eds., Sayonara to the Lee Teng-hui era: Politics in Taiwan, 1988–2000 (University Press of America, 2003).

  31. 31.

    Wei-chin Lee, “The Buck Starts Here: Cross-Strait Economic Transactions and Taiwan’s Domestic Politics,” American Asian Review 21, no. 3 (2003): 107.

  32. 32.

    The policy includes opening up direct mail, transportation and trade exchanges between the PRC and ROC Taiwan, according to the Mainland Affairs Council, ROC Taiwan (http://www.mac.gov.tw/en/News_Content.aspx?n=AEC54CE1BB842CD0&sms=7C0CA8982E163402&s=A514E2F510401BC1).

  33. 33.

    According to the Republic of China (Taiwan) National Statistics website, (http://eng.stat.gov.tw/public/data/dgbas03/bs4/ninews_e/10411/enewtotal10411.pdf).

  34. 34.

    According to the Republic of China (Taiwan) Tourism Bureau, Ministry of Transportation and Communication (http://stat.taiwan.net.tw/system/country_years_arrival.html).

  35. 35.

    Yun-wing Sung, “A comparison between the CEPA and the ECFA,” Economic Integration Across the Taiwan Strait: Global Perspectives (2013): 30.

  36. 36.

    Stan Hok Wui Wong, Kuan-chen Lee, Karl Ho, and Harold D. Clarke, “Regional Socio-economic Integration and Vote Choice of Young People: A Comparative Case Study of Hong Kong and Taiwan,” paper presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Annual meeting, Chicago, IL, April 2017.

  37. 37.

    Wong, Lee, Ho, and Clarke, “Regional Socio-economic Integration.”

  38. 38.

    Stephen WK Chiu and Tai-lok Lui, “Testing the global city-social polarisation thesis: Hong Kong since the 1990s,” Urban Studies 41, no. 10 (2004): 1863–1888.

  39. 39.

    According to the 12th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey (2016), the index is a ratio of average house price and annual income. In the Hong Kong case, an average apartment price is 19 times the citizens’ average annual income.

  40. 40.

    Cheng Hsiao, H. Steve Ching, and Shui Ki Wan, “A panel data approach for program evaluation: measuring the benefits of political and economic integration of Hong kong with mainland China,” Journal of Applied Econometrics 27, no. 5 (2012): 705–740.

  41. 41.

    David A. Rezvani, “Dead autonomy, a thousand cuts or partial independence? The autonomous status of Hong Kong,” Journal of Contemporary Asia 42, no. 1 (2012): 93–122; Stan Hok-wui Wong, “Real estate elite, economic development, and political conflicts in postcolonial Hong Kong,” China Review 15, no. 1 (2015): 1–38.

  42. 42.

    For comparison purpose, we did not include the independence/unification variable, but such issue positions can be estimated through the party or leader support variable in the Taiwan case.

  43. 43.

    Rezvani, “Dead autonomy,” 93–122.

  44. 44.

    Clarke, Goodwin, and Whiteley. Brexit.

  45. 45.

    Clarke, Goodwin, and Whiteley. Brexit, 222.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, The University of Texas at Dallas, Richardson, TX, USA

    Karl Ho & Harold D. Clarke

  2. Department of Applied Social Sciences, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hung Hom, Hong Kong

    Stan Hok-wui Wong

  3. Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan

    Kuan-Chen Lee

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  1. Karl Ho
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  2. Stan Hok-wui Wong
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  4. Kuan-Chen Lee
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Politics and International Affairs, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, NC, USA

    Wei-chin Lee

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Ho, K., Wong, S.Hw., Clarke, H.D., Lee, KC. (2019). A Comparative Study of the China Factor in Taiwan and Hong Kong Elections. In: Lee, Wc. (eds) Taiwan’s Political Re-Alignment and Diplomatic Challenges. Politics and Development of Contemporary China. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-77125-0_6

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