Abstract
Given recent trends over the 2000–2018 period, this chapter proposes that newly democratized or electorally competitive African states are more responsive to domestic economic imperatives and thus have proven more likely to form relations with the economically larger People’s Republic of China than the Republic of China due to the prospective trade, aid, and investment gains to be made once such a switch is affected. Seven case studies conducted over the 2001–2018 period yield results which are in line with this hypothesis. In effect, the entire universe of cases of new democracies on the African continent in the twenty-first century have all switched recognition soon after becoming politically open, but no evidence has been found demonstrating the opposite (i.e., the effect of relations with either China or Taiwan on a country’s democracy).
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Notes
- 1.
Rich, Timothy S. and Banerjee, Vasabjit, “Running Out of Time? The Evolution of Taiwan’s Relations in Africa” in Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 44(1), 2015, 141–161. See also Ndzendze, Bhaso, “Domestic Audiences and Economic Opportunity Cost: African Democratisation as a Determinant in the Recognition of China over Taiwan, 2001–2018,” Journal of Asian and African Studies, 56(3), 2021, 434–454. Substantial portions of the argument and data in this chapter emanate from this article.
- 2.
Huntington, Samuel, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late twentieth Century, Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991.
- 3.
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- 4.
World Bank, “Inflation, consumer prices (annual %)—Gambia, The,” World Bank. URL: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG.
- 5.
Huntington, Samuel, The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late twentieth Century, Norman, OK: University of Oklahoma Press, 1991.
- 6.
Brautigam, Deborah, The Dragon’s Gift: The Real Story Of China In Africa, by Deborah Brautigam, Oxford and New York: Oxford University Press, 2009, p. 22.
- 7.
Ibid.
- 8.
Gerrit van der Wees, “How President Xi Is Misreading Taiwan,” The Diplomat, January 3, 2019.
- 9.
Copper, John F., “Taiwan’s 1995 Legislative Yuan Election,” Maryland Series in Contemporary Asian Studies: Vol. 1996: No. 1, Article 1, p. 222.
- 10.
Copper, John F., “Taiwan’s 1995 Legislative Yuan Election,” Maryland Series in Contemporary Asian Studies: Vol. 1996: No. 1, Article 1, p. 222.
- 11.
Rich, Timothy S. and Banerjee, Vasabjit, “Running Out of Time? The Evolution of Taiwan’s Relations in Africa” in Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 44(1), 2015, 141–161.
- 12.
Knoema, “GDP of China,” Knoema, 2018. URL: https://knoema.com/atlas/China/Real-GDP-growth.
- 13.
Williams, Christopher and Hurst, Claire, “Caught between two Chinas: assessing South Africa’s switch from Taipei to Beijing,” South African Historical Journal, 70(3), 2018, p. 561.
- 14.
Williams and Hurst, “Caught between two Chinas,” 570.
- 15.
Williams and Hurst, “Caught between two Chinas,” 580.
- 16.
Ndzendze, Bhaso, “Malawi and the One China Policy: 1964–2008,” E-IR, 2019, April. URL: https://www.e-ir.info/2019/04/22/malawi-and-the-one-china-policy-1964-2008/. See also Ndzendze, Bhaso, “Realpolitik in the Africa-One China Nexus, 2001–2008: The Cases of Chad and Malawi,” Studia Europaea, 64(2), 2019, 53–79.
- 17.
Rich and Banerjee, “Running Out of Time? The Evolution of Taiwan’s Relations in Africa,” p. 155.
- 18.
Ibid.
- 19.
Ibid., 154.
- 20.
Carter, Danielle (2011). “Sources of State Legitimacy In Contemporary South Africa: A Theory of Political Goods,” Afrobarometer Working Papers (No. 134). Available at https://afrobarometer.org/sites/default/files/publications/Working%20paper/AfropaperNo134.pdf (Last accessed: 22 February 2020).
- 21.
Ibid., see also Barro, Robert J. (1994). “Democracy and Growth,” National Bureau of Economic Research. Available at https://www.nber.org/papers/w4909.pdf (Last accessed: 22 February 2020).
- 22.
Dahl, R.A., Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1971, p. 38.
- 23.
Freedom House (2020). “Countries and Territories,” Freedom House. Available at https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores (Last accessed: 17 March 2020).
- 24.
Tomz, Michael, “Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach,” in International Organization, 61(1), 2007, 821–840.
- 25.
China Daily, quoted in Taylor, Ian, “China’s Response to the Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa,” The Round Table, 104(1), 2015, 41–54.
- 26.
Taylor, “China’s Response to the Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa,” p. 54.
- 27.
Government of the People’s Republic of China, “China, Liberia resume diplomatic ties (2003-10-13),” Embassy of the PRC in Denmark website, 2003 (October 13). URL: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/ce/cedk/eng/News/t105695.htm.
- 28.
Taylor, “China’s Response to the Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa,” p. 46.
- 29.
Ibid.
- 30.
This was perhaps demonstrated in an incident wherein the House Speaker, Edwin Melvin Snowe, stated that Monrovia could switch back to the ROC, Liberian president Johnson Sirleaf “swiftly contradicted him,” and the Speaker was made to resign his position (Taylor, 2015: 46).
- 31.
Taylor, “China’s Response to the Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa,” p. 46.
- 32.
African Elections Database, “Elections in Senegal,” African Elections Database, 2012. URL: https://africanelections.tripod.com/sn.html.
- 33.
Gehrold, Stefan, and Lena Tietze. Far From Altruistic: China’s Presence in Senegal. KAS, 2011. Print, p. 6.
- 34.
Ibid., 3.
- 35.
Ibid., 6.
- 36.
Ibid., 7.
- 37.
- 38.
Gehrold and Tietze, Far From Altruistic, 7.
- 39.
MIT, “Where does Senegal export to? (2006),” MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity, 2019. URL: https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/sitc/export/sen/show/all/2006/. Compare “Where does Senegal export to? (2016),” MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity. Available at https://oec.world/en/visualize/tree_map/sitc/export/sen/show/all/2016/.
- 40.
China Africa Research Initiative, “Loan Data,” Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 2020. URL: http://www.sais-cari.org/data.
- 41.
This claim presents an interesting case of indirect contagion, which could be the subject of future research, i.e., to discern the role played by the switch of one country onto the subsequent countries in its vicinity. We may hypothesize at this early stage, however, that in sight of the lack of linear procession of switches, this may not be a factor.
- 42.
“Regime survival compelled a tactical shift: recognising Beijing would bring myriad short- and longer-term advantages. President Déby stood to be empowered by aid, investment and military assistance from a permanent UN Security Council member. China was also the key international economic partner, political patron and important military ally of Sudan; its support could empower N’Djamena in its then proxy war with Khartoum” (Dittgen and Large, 2013: 1).
- 43.
French, Howard W. and Polgreen, L., “China, Filling a Void, Drills for Riches in Chad,” New York Times, 2007 (August 13). URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/13/world/africa/13chinaafrica.html.
- 44.
Dittgen, Romain and Large, Daniel, “Refining Relations: Chad’s Growing Links with China,” Johannesburg: South African Institute of International Affairs, 2012, 2.
- 45.
Ibid., 2.
- 46.
Ibid., 3.
- 47.
Ibid.
- 48.
Ibid.
- 49.
China Africa Research Initiative, “Loan Data,” Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 2020. URL: http://www.sais-cari.org/data.
- 50.
Schellhase, John, “China’s Chad Courtship,” The Diplomat, 2012 (June 26). URL: https://thediplomat.com/2012/06/chinaschadcourtship/.
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People’s Republic of China, “China and Chad,” 2013. URL: http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zzjg_663340/fzs_663828/gjlb_663832/chad_663944.
- 52.
Azevedo, Mario J. and Decalo, Samuel, Historical Dictionary of Chad Fourth Edition, New York and London: Rowman and Littlefield, 2018, 273.
- 53.
Yan, Alice, “Taiwan losing out in ‘diplomatic war’ with Beijing as Sao Tome severs ties with island,” South China Morning Post, 21 December 2016.
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French, Howard W. and Polgreen, L. (2007) “China, Filling a Void, Drills for Riches in Chad,” New York Times. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/13/world/africa/13chinaafrica.html, p. 5.
- 55.
Mweninguwe, Raphael, “Malawi-China Diplomatic Ties: 10 Years On,” The Diplomat, 2017 (September), https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/malawichinadiplomaticties10yearson/.
- 56.
Tenthani, Raphael, “Malawians go to polls Tuesday in closest-ever polls,” Afrique en ligne, 2009 (May 17). URL: https://web.archive.org/web/20090520160717/http://www.afriquejet.com/news/africa-news/malawians-go-to-polls-tuesday-in-closest-ever-polls-2009051727821.html.
- 57.
Taylor, China and Africa, 53.
- 58.
Taylor, China and Africa, 53.
- 59.
Ramzy, Austin, “China Resumes Diplomatic Relations With Gambia, Shutting Out Taiwan,” New York Times, 2016 (March 19). URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/19/world/asia/chinagambiataiwandiplomaticrelations.html.
- 60.
Ramzy, Austin, “China Resumes Diplomatic Relations With Gambia, Shutting Out Taiwan,” New York Times, 2016 (March 19). https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/19/world/asia/chinagambiataiwandiplomaticrelations.html.
- 61.
Blanchard, Ben and Wu, J.R., “With Gambia move, China ends diplomatic truce with Taiwan,” Reuters. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-gambia-idUSKCN0WJ1DT.
- 62.
Available at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=GM (Last accessed: 12 November 2019).
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Available at https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG?locations=GM (Last accessed: 12 November 2019).
- 64.
Cham, Fatou, “Gambia: Free Trade Between Gambia, China,” AllAfrica, 2017. URL: https://allafrica.com/stories/201707251066.html.
- 65.
Southerland, Matthew, “As Chinese Pressure on Taiwan Grows, Beijing Turns Away from Cross-Strait ‘Diplomatic Truce’,” U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, 2017.
- 66.
Quoted in Sutherland, “As Chinese pressure.”
- 67.
Bax, PG, Simon, G, Dlamini, L, “Chinese Billions Fail to Sway Taiwan’s Last Two Allies in Africa,” Bloomberg, 2017. URL: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-24/chinese-billions-fail-to-sway-taiwan-s-last-two-allies-in-africa.
- 68.
Bax et al., “Chinese Billions Fail to Sway.”
- 69.
Quoted in Southerland, “As Chinese Pressure on Taiwan Grows.”
- 70.
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Asia by Africa, “Saying no to China.”
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Cabestan, J-P, “Burkina Faso: Between Taiwan’s active public diplomacy and China’s business attractiveness,” South Africa n Journal of International Affairs 23(4), 2017, 495–519.
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Ndzendze, B. (2022). China Vs. Taiwan in Africa: The Role of Democracy and Electoral Competitiveness. In: Abidde, S.O. (eds) China and Taiwan in Africa. Africa-East Asia International Relations. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-95342-3_13
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