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A Bayesian Network Approach to Identity Climate Teleconnections Within Homogeneous Precipitation Regions in Ecuador

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Information and Communication Technologies of Ecuador (TIC.EC) (TICEC 2019)

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 1099))

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Abstract

Reliable precipitation predictions require an understanding of climate teleconnections over precipitation. In Ecuador, these teleconnections were studied with correlation methods, but multivariate studies with several climatic indexes simultaneously has been less study. The objective of this work is to carry out a multivariate study using Bayesian networks to identify the influence of climate indexes in homogenous precipitation regions in Ecuador. The climate teleconnections, defined as the correlation between precipitation satellite data and climate indexes, as well as the regionalization of seasonality of precipitation were used to learn a Bayesian network in R software. It was characterized the structure and strength of the relationship between the teleconnections and the precipitation. Additionally, three types of belief propagation were used: regions to climate index, climate index to regions, and interactions between indexes. This was useful to determine whether the influence of a climate index is homogeneous throughout the country or varies by region, as well as to identify interactions between different indexes. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding of precipitation in Ecuador, and to promote making evidence-based water resource decisions.

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Acknowledgements

This study has been financed by the Corporación Ecuatoriana para el Desarrollo de la Investigación y la Academia (CEDIA) through the project CEPRA XII “Spatial representation of climatic teleconnections in the precipitation of Ecuador”.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Carrera de Ingeniería de Sistemas y Telemática, Facultad de Ciencias de la Administración, Universidad del Azuay, 01.01.981, Cuenca, Ecuador

    Renato Ávila

  2. Universidad del Azuay, 01.01.981, Cuenca, Ecuador

    Daniela Ballari

Authors
  1. Renato Ávila
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  2. Daniela Ballari
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Daniela Ballari .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. ESPE, 171-5-23, Universidad de las Fuerzas Armadas, Sangolqui, Ecuador

    Efrain Fosenca C

  2. Dept de Ciencias de la Compu y Elect, Universidad Técnica Particular, Loja, Ecuador

    Germania Rodríguez Morales

  3. Escuela de Ciencias de la Computación, Universidad del Azuay, Cuenca, Ecuador

    Marcos Orellana Cordero

  4. Mz 55, Villa 4, University of Guayaquil, Guayaquil, Ecuador

    Miguel Botto-Tobar

  5. Universidad del Azuay, Cuenca, Ecuador

    Esteban Crespo Martínez

  6. Universidad del Azuay, Cuenca, Ecuador

    Andrés Patiño León

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Ávila, R., Ballari, D. (2020). A Bayesian Network Approach to Identity Climate Teleconnections Within Homogeneous Precipitation Regions in Ecuador. In: Fosenca C, E., Rodríguez Morales, G., Orellana Cordero, M., Botto-Tobar, M., Crespo Martínez, E., Patiño León, A. (eds) Information and Communication Technologies of Ecuador (TIC.EC). TICEC 2019. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1099. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-35740-5_2

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