INTRODUCTION

According to experts, “the transition to a new system of environmentally friendly energy supply using a large number of renewable sources in combination with energy storage and large power plants, including nuclear, still necessary to ensure a stable electricity supply, requires a completely different approach…” [1]. At the same time, experts argue that green hydrogen can be considered as a universal source of energy and in the future for a complete transition from traditional to renewable energy sources (RESs) and the displacement of hydrocarbons as energy sources [2], which affects the distribution system of energy resources, thereby dictating a revision of the power system management mechanisms as a whole.

Within the current geopolitical circumstances, energy security (ES), as an element of ensuring energy independence, is more important than ever. This factor is of key importance in the economies of countries, providing access to reliable energy sources, including both traditional and renewable ones [3].

The concept of “energy security” is interpreted quite differently and covers broader aspects of economic and political discussions related to energy supply [4]. The most common definition is the following: energy security – ensuring uninterrupted access to energy resources for current and subsequent generations at affordable prices. Despite some differences in wording, other interpretations include three basic concepts: “energy interests,” “energy threats,” and “energy protection.”

For example, as noted in the Doctrine of Energy Security of the Russian Federation, “… ensuring energy security is carried out in peacetime, in emergency situations, during mobilization, and in wartime” [5].

According to expert data, the energy sector can be divided into several interdependent clusters and nodes that together constitute the foundation of the state system. If any segment is missing, then the state is forced to adapt to other regional and transnational players, making several geopolitical concessions [6].

In the Doctrine of Energy Security of the Russian Federation [7], since global energy security is the ultimate global public good, to achieve it it is necessary to take into account the following priority factors related to both foreign economic and foreign policy, as well as internal challenges:

— Slowdown in the growth of global demand for energy resources and changes in its structure.

— Increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the global fuel and energy balance.

— A sharp aggravation of the military-political situation (interstate relations).

— Making incorrect long-term investment decisions in conditions of high uncertainty in global energy markets.

— Discrepancy between the capabilities of the fuel and energy complex and the needs of socio-economic development.

— High level of depreciation of fixed production assets of organizations of the fuel and energy complex, low efficiency of use, and insufficient rates of renewal of these assets.

— Adverse and dangerous natural phenomena, environmental changes leading to disruption of normal functioning and destruction of infrastructure and facilities of the fuel and energy complex.

— The need to import hydrocarbon fuels.

— The growing need for ongoing investment along the entire energy chain.

— Excessive politicization of the energy sector.

The relevance of the energy security policy problem is based on the general social significance of energy, which consists of four main aspects of its use by the socio-economic system [6]:

(1) Functioning, i.e., ensuring basic human needs and energy supply for economic activities.

(2) Maintaining the existing level of infrastructure of modern society.

(3) Use of energy to ensure growth of population, capital, and consumption.

(4) Ensuring the dynamics of changes in economic infrastructure, technical progress, and growth in labor productivity.

Systematic monitoring of the country’s energy security level allows one to make informed decisions in the field of security. For this purpose, it is necessary to improve the methodology for assessing ES, which in turn helps to increase the effectiveness of measures to prevent threats.

RATIONALE FOR THE CHOICE OF COUNTRIES FOR REVIEW OF METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE LEVEL OF ENERGY SECURITY

The article discusses methods for assessing the level of economic security in the United States, Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

Considering the leading position of the United States as the second largest producer and consumer of energy in the world, as well as a leader in natural gas production [9], coal reserves, oil production and consumption, and production and export of petroleum products [9], it is necessary to analyze the methodology used in this country and a mechanism for assessing the level of energy security.

Russia ranks second in the world after the United States in terms of total primary energy reserves, according to estimated data [10]. Despite the recent decline in energy exports [11]. Against the backdrop of military-political actions, issues of territorial planning in the field of energy, the functioning of the information system of the fuel and energy complex, as well as issues of security of fuel and energy facilities still remain relevant. It is also worth taking into account Uzbekistan’s dependence on Russian gas, in 2023, a transit supply of gas through Kazakhstan via the Central Asia Center (CAC) pipeline was confirmed to cover the energy consumption deficit in the country during the winter period [12]. The above facts prove the need to consider the methodology for assessing the level of energy security in the Russian Federation.

The Republic of Belarus is the only country in whose energy efficiency assessment methodology there is an indicator that takes into account the share of renewable energy sources in the overall energy balance of the state, which is of no small importance against the backdrop of recent global reforms in the energy sector and long-term strategic documents for achieving carbon neutrality and low-carbon development [13].

As experts note, “The Republic of Armenia, despite the complete absence of fossil energy reserves, is one of the most energy-rich CIS countries, moreover, a state with a growing potential for electricity exports, thanks to a competent attitude to the resource capabilities formed back in the Soviet period and policies aimed at the use of modern efficient and energy-saving technologies,” in connection with which it is advisable to consider its methodology for assessing energy efficiency [14].

The energy infrastructures of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic are closely connected with the infrastructure of the Republic of Uzbekistan, since they are members of the United Energy System of Central Asia, which requires consideration of energy policies in these countries. Also, consideration of the methodology of energy security in Kazakhstan is interesting because, in connection with the sovereignty of regions in the country in recent years, issues of energy security and economic feasibility are not linked [15].

REVIEW OF EXISTING METHODOLOGIES FOR ASSESSING THE LEVEL OF ENERGY SECURITY IN THE UNITED STATES AND SOME CIS COUNTRIES

Methodology for Assessing the Level of Energy Security in the United States

The Global Energy Institute’s (GEI) 2020 United States Energy Security Risk Index includes the most recent historical and forecast data to assess the current and future state of United States energy security risks [16]. The index consists of 37 various energy security risk indicators in nine categories: world fuels; fuel import; energy costs; price and market volatility; energy consumption intensity; electricity sector; transport sector; environment; basic science; and energy research and development.

The index covers the historical period from 1970 to 2019 and the forecast period until 2040. The GEI includes four sub-indices that identify the main areas of risk to United States energy security: geopolitical, economic, reliability, and environmental. Each of the 37 indicators is mapped to one or more of these four sub-indices. These sub-indices are weighted (30% for geopolitical and economic indicators, 20% for reliability and environmental protection) and combined to obtain an overall index score [17, 18].

The index is designed to define and use the concept of risk: a lower index score indicates a lower risk of energy security, and a higher score indicates a higher risk. When evaluating results, it is important to understand that the index necessarily moves on an open scale.

To give a relative sense of the potential danger, the index score for 1980, a particularly bad year for the United States (and global) security risks, was set at 100. Thus, index scores approaching or exceeding 100 imply a very high degree of risk.

Methodology Used to Develop the United States Energy Security Risk Index

The GEI’s ultimate goal in developing the United States Energy Security Risk Index was to use existing data and projections to develop indicators that collectively describe geopolitical, economic, reliability, and environmental risks that measure the risk to the overall United States Energy Security in a single index. Reducing such a multifaceted concept as United States economic security to a single number was a serious problem. The index was compiled on the basis of just over three dozen individual indicators measuring energy security in various aspects. The index uses historical and forecast data covering the period from 1970, before energy efficiency first became a major concern of the American public, through 2040, using “business as usual” forecasts from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Selection and Justification of Indicators

Before selecting indicators, the first task was to establish some criteria that would ensure that the data used had several important characteristics. Therefore, the data for each indicator had to be:

“Reasonable”

Data must meet common sense expectations

“Trustworthy”

The data source must be well recognized and authoritative

“Available”

The data had to be easily accessible and publicly available

“Transparent”

Data output and manipulations with them must be understandable

“Full”

The data record should extend back a reasonable period of time, preferably back to 1970

“Promising”

Historical data must be clearly consistent with forecast data extending to 2040, if available

“Updated”

Historical data had to be revised every year, adding a new historical year and preparing new forecasts

The selected indicators were clustered around nine broad types of indicators that represent and balance some of the key and often competing aspects of energy security.

Using these categories as guides, 37 individual indicators were selected and developed, covering a wide range of energy supply, energy end-uses, operations, and environmental emissions. Three to six indicators were selected for each indicator category (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1.
figure 1

A comprehensive structure for constructing an index of US energy security risks [16].

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Due to the fact that “the United States plans to commission 35 GW of solar and wind power plants in 2023,” due to investment incentives in accordance with the Inflation Reduction Act [19], it is advisable to take into account the above indicator in the United State energy security risk assessment system.

Methodology for Assessing the Level of Energy Security in the Russian Federation

In 2019, the Russian Federation adopted the “Energy Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation,” which states that indicators of the state and threats to energy security must be developed, justified, and approved for all levels: individual, object-by-object, territorial, systemic, and federal (national) energy security [20].

According to experts, increasing international efforts to implement climate policy and accelerate the transition to a green economy stands out as a particular challenge: Russia “considers it unacceptable to consider these issues from a biased point of view, infringing on the interests of energy producing states and deliberately ignoring such aspects of sustainable development as ensuring universal access to energy and the development of clean hydrocarbon energy technologies” [21].

The Doctrine of Energy Security of Russia provides six concepts that characterize different levels of energy security: global; national; systemic (survivability); regional; object (corporate); local (individual).

Currently, in the Russian Federation there are several approaches to assessing energy security: various methodologies have been developed by scientists; one of them was proposed by specialists from the Institute of Economics, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, the peculiarity of which is the use of the indicative analysis method [19]. Table 1 contains a list of indicators and their threshold values used within this methodology.

Table 1.   Indicators that determine the level of energy security of the Russian Federation [21]
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It should be noted that in the methodology of the Institute of Economics, Ural Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, energy efficiency indicators are tied to boiler and furnace fuel. In addition, this methodology separates financial, economic, and environmental indicators into a separate block. The same group of scientists developed energy security indicators for the Chelyabinsk oblast [21], presented in Table 2.

Table 2.  Indicators that determine the level of energy security in the Chelyabinsk oblast of the Russian Federation [21]
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According to Table 2, the methodology for assessing the level of energy security in the Chelyabinsk oblast does not include certain blocks of indicators. The main feature of this methodology is its emphasis on the electric power system: out of 21 indicators, 11 cover the electricity sector, 4 cover the heat power sector, and 6 cover the energy sector as a whole. Due to the fact that Russia plans to increase the share of renewable energy sources in the country’s energy balance by 10 times, from the current 1 to 10% in 2040 [22], it is worth noting that both methodologies must include an indicator of the share of renewable energy sources in the country’s overall energy balance.

Methodology for Assessing the Energy Security Level of the Republic of Belarus

The existing methodology for assessing the level of energy security in the Republic of Belarus was approved in the “Concept of Energy Security of the Republic of Belarus by Resolution of the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Belarus No. 1084 of December 23, 2015.” [13]. The methodology contains 4 blocks, including a total of 11 indicators (Table 3). According to the Concept, “Energy security is a state of protection of citizens, society, the state, and the economy from threats of shortages in meeting their energy needs with economically available energy resources of acceptable quality, and from threats of disruption of uninterrupted energy supply.”

Table 3.  Indicators that determine the level of energy security of the Republic of Belarus and their calculation methods [13]
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The Republic of Belarus has adopted the third edition of the Energy Security Concept, which indicates the continuous improvement of the methodology for its assessment. The concept, in addition to the methodology for calculating indicators, includes forecasting the values of the main indicators until 2035, assessing threats, and principles for ensuring energy security. As noted in Table 1, the main focus of the Concept is on the block “Reliability of supplies, redundancy, processing, and distribution of fuel and energy resources.”

As stated above, the methodology for assessing the level of energy efficiency of the Republic of Belarus takes into account the share of renewable energy sources in the country’s energy balance, and also on the basis of this methodology, the authors made an attempt to assess the level of energy efficiency of the Republic of Uzbekistan, as a result of which it was revealed that, subject to the adoption of threshold values for the integral assessment of sustainable energy development state for the Republic of Belarus, the state of the economic security of the Republic of Uzbekistan is at a high level (0.610) [23].

Methodology for Assessing the Level of Energy Security of the Republic of Armenia

By Decision of the Government of the Republic of Armenia No. 50 dated December 22, 2011, “Concept for ensuring energy security of the Republic of Armenia” [24]. In this document, energy supply is defined as a set of political, economic, legal, organizational, methodological, and other measures that ensures high-quality and reliable energy supply at economically reasonable prices to meet the needs of the state on a daily basis, as well as in emergency situations and during war [25]. Since in this definition, energy security is considered as a set of measures, we can conclude that the basic document provides, first of all, for the regulation of management processes in the energy system: political, economic, social, legal, etc.

This document focuses on identifying and analyzing both external and internal threats to the country’s energy security. However, there is a lack of detailed methodology for assessing this safety [24].

Scientists such as A.A. study the issues of ES of the Republic of Armenia. Markarov, V.S. Davtyan [25] and K. Karapetyan [26]. Their research is devoted to areas of strengthening the energy security of the Republic of Armenia but is not based on a quantitative assessment of the current state of the energy security. Since Armenia intends to choose the path of low-carbon development to diversify the energy system in order to ensure energy efficiency in the country (according to the country’s development strategy, by 2025 it is planned to achieve the following indicators: 50% of electricity generation from nuclear power plants (NPPs), 20% from solar power plants (SPPs), and 15% from thermal power plants (TPPs)) [27], in the methodology for assessing the level of energy efficiency of the Republic of Armenia it is also recommended to include an indicator of the share of RESs in the overall energy balance of the state.

Methodology for Assessing the Level of Energy Security of the Republic of Kazakhstan

According to UN experts, “The goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 in the countries of Central Asia must be considered while ensuring energy efficiency and creating environmentally friendly jobs” [28].

In the Republic of Kazakhstan there is also no methodology approved at the state level for assessing the level of energy security of the country. However, in the “Kazakhstan-2050” Strategy, out of ten global challenges of the 21st century, energy security ranks fifth.

R.M. Mustafina conducted a study of the state of energy security in the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2006, using the indicative analysis method. The study covered the following indicators:

— Change in energy consumption per capita.

— Change in energy consumption per capita in the domestic sector.

— Share of own sources in the total volume of energy production.

— Change in the share of regional enerfy production relative to the country’s total production.

— Change in the share of regional energy consumption relative to the total consumption in the country.

— Share of the largest power plant in the region’s energy system.

According to the authors [31], threats to energy security at the present stage of the country’s development are threats to the processes of economic transformation, since instability in the provision of energy security can have a negative impact on the ongoing fundamental transformations of the country’s economy, thereby slowing them down, or significantly increasing the costs of solving the assigned tasks. One of the crises and quite significant phenomena that threatens the energy supply is the energy wastefulness of the republic’s economy.

A. Elibaeva also dealt with issues of the energy security of Kazakhstan in the aspect of sustainable development [32]. This scientist interprets the concept of energy security as follows: energy security, considered in the economic security system as one of its main elements, implies the optimal use of limited resources and the use of environmentally friendly nature, energy, and material-saving technologies, including the extraction and processing of raw materials, the creation of an environmentally acceptable products, minimization, recycling, and destruction of waste.

The following key indicators of energy independence are noted in [32]:

— Sufficiency and availability of primary energy to meet the needs of the country’s economy.

— Productivity of equipment for converting primary energy into other types of energy for each of them.

— Productivity of transport infrastructure for the transportation of each type of energy (primary and/or converted).

— Environmental acceptability of the processes of extraction, transformation, and consumption of various types and forms of energy.

Methodology for Assessing the Level of Energy Security of the Kyrgyz Republic

The “Concept of Energy Development of the Kyrgyz Republic for the Period up to 2030” presents an analysis of the situation in the field of energy security based on the main indicators: achievements and problems [33]. The methodology for assessing the level of energy security is discussed in more detail in the works of V.M. Kasymova [34]. The concept of energy development of the Kyrgyz Republic defines energy supply as the minimum necessary condition for the functioning and strategic development of the fuel and energy complex, as well as the entire socio-economic policy of the state.

According to the Concept, energy security is influenced by external and internal factors. External factors include: natural (depletion of natural resources), climatic (global warming, natural disasters); geopolitical (dependence on imports of fuel and energy resources, discriminatory actions of individual states, etc.), and macroeconomic (unstable global fuel price environment, lack of investment, etc.). Internal factors include the irrational structure of the fuel and energy balance, financial destabilization due to the crisis of non-payments, pricing and tariff policies taking into account socially vulnerable segments of the population, a lack of investment and depreciation of fixed assets, a high level of energy intensity of the economy and a decrease in its competitiveness, a sharp reduction in the volume of geological exploration, and the lack of reserves, such as industrial reserves, low level of environmental protection activities and environmental safety, failure to comply with the terms of international agreements to minimize the impact of the fuel and energy complex on the environment, etc. Key indicators of energy security of the Kyrgyz Republic are presented in Table 4.

Table 4.   Key indicators of economic security of the Kyrgyz Republic [34]
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As can be seen from Table 4, the methodology for assessing the level of energy security of the Kyrgyz Republic pays significant attention to the electricity sector. What distinguishes this methodology is the inclusion of a sociological block and a block focused on consumers of electricity and heat.

The Republic of Kazakhstan and the Kyrgyz Republic are part of the United Energy System of Central Asia and have not only a common energy space, but also a common space of water resources, which dictates the need to consider indicators related to the availability of both energy and water resources.

Table 5 presents a comparison of indicators for assessing the level of energy security for the countries considered in the blocks identified by the authors based on the study of methods. In the case of the Republic of Armenia, due to the lack of indicators, the potential connection of external and internal threats with indicators presented in other methodologies was considered. In the Republic of Kazakhstan, due to the small number of indicators in the presented methods, they were considered as a single method.

Table 5.   Comparison of indicators for assessing the level of energy security in the United States and in some CIS countries
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It is worth noting that the largest number of coincidences in indicators in some CIS countries falls on the blocks of resource availability of the fuel and energy supply system, as well as on the block of reliability of electricity supply.

Development of a Draft Methodology for Assessing the Level of Energy Security of the Republic of Uzbekistan

According to expert data, “Uzbekistan is one of the few countries in the world that fully provides itself with energy efficiency from its own resources” [35]. The country has formed an institutional infrastructure in the field of energy policy, established goals, and ways to painlessly achieve carbon neutrality in accordance with global regulatory documents (UNFCCC, Paris Climate Agreement).

Uzbekistan is the most populous among all the Central Asian countries reviewed above and is one of the world’s largest producers of natural gas, annually producing about 60 billion m3. Since the early 2000s, Uzbekistan has exported 10–15 billion m3 natural gas annually and, in addition to domestic oil production, additionally imports crude oil for its refineries [36]. It is worth noting that the residential sector is the largest consumer with a share of almost 40%, while the industrial, transport, and services sectors account for approximately 20% each. This fact explains the relatively high final consumption of electrical energy of 54 000 million kW h. The country also strives to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and increase the share of renewable energy sources in the country’s overall energy balance to 40% by 2030, in connection with which it is planned to install 5 GW of solar power plants, 3 GW of wind power plants by 2025 [37–39].

Uzbekistan is a member of significant international communities and programs in the field of energy, such as Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), Electric Power Council of the Commonwealth of Independent States, SCO, CAWEP, USAID, WB, etc., which are aimed at creating conditions to improve energy security at the regional level and in beneficiary countries. Also, the main task of the above organizations and programs in general is to strengthen stability and economic security in a wide area, develop economic and energy partnerships, and manage the process of globalization in the field of sustainable development [40].

In the EAEU, Uzbekistan is still an observer and an active trading partner of the organization’s member countries. In this context, it should be noted that the status and level of the state’s energy security are strongly influenced by international relations with close neighbors, which determine the prospects for the development of the region’s energy infrastructure. Thus, the Turkmenistan–Uzbekistan–Kazakhstan-China gas pipeline (2010) has become a serious factor in energy security in Central Asia (CA), which aims to “…increase the energy self-sufficiency and security of the Central Asian countries” [41].

Subsidies provided by the government of Uzbekistan to the gas sector are holding back the development of renewable energy sources. Low domestic gas prices do not allow for high incomes and limit the possibilities of reinvestment in the development of renewable energy sources. Gas subsidies make renewable energy sources unattractive for private investors due to the high cost of renewable energy sources, as well as low gas prices.

According to the strategy “Uzbekistan–2030” [42] “… the basis for the transition to a green economy in the country will be an increase in the use of renewable energy. At the same time, it is expected that the capacity of power plants based on renewable energy sources will be increased to 40%,” which dictates the need to consider it as a separate indicator of the state’s energy efficiency.

Despite the fact that systematic studies to assess the level of energy efficiency using an indicative approach for the Republic of Uzbekistan have not been carried out, the influence of individual elements or components of the fuel and energy complex on the level of energy efficiency of the country has been studied both within the framework of various international programs and projects (CAWEP—Central Asia Water-Energy Programm, OSCE Program “Increasing energy security in Central Asia”, USAID “Power the future” program, etc.), and scientists such as R.A. Zahidov. [43, 44], G.Zh. Allaeva [45], D.G. Umarov [46], etc.

In this context, it is worth noting [47], dedicated to finding ways to jointly develop the energy systems of Central Asia, taking into account the introduction of renewable energy sources, and solutions that promote the efficient use of water resources and the creation of peak power to compensate for the influence of renewable energy sources in order to effectively regulate power plants, while maintaining reliable communications with the UES of Kazakhstan and Russia. As the authors note, this will not only increase the reliability of the Central Asian connected power system, but will also remove, perhaps, the main problem in the form of a weak transit connection between the north and south of Kazakhstan, which is the main obstacle to the large-scale introduction of renewable energy sources in the energy system of Uzbekistan and in other energy systems of the energy interconnection.

Taking into account the above, as well as based on Table 5, the project “Methodology for assessing the energy security of the Republic of Uzbekistan” was proposed based on the following principles (Table 6):

Table 6.   Proposed “Methodology for assessing the energy security of the Republic of Uzbekistan”
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(1) When forming a set of indicators for assessing the level of energy security, priority was given to those that had the greatest number of matches in all the considered methods and demonstrated maximum representativeness in each block.

(2) Priority was given to significant problems or advantages of the state relative to its geostrategic location.

(3) Special attention was paid to the indicators: the environmental block, the block of consumers of electricity and heat, the social block, and indicators that were most important for the Republic of Uzbekistan were included.

The methodology for calculating the main indicators for assessing the level of energy security of the Republic of Uzbekistan is given in Table 7.

Table 7.   Proposed energy security indicators of the Republic of Uzbekistan and their calculation methods
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CONCLUSIONS

Thus, based on a critical and detailed analysis of existing methodologies for assessing the level of energy security in various countries of the world, such as the United States, the Russian Federation, and some CIS countries, a project “Methodology for assessing the level of energy security of the Republic of Uzbekistan” has been developed and proposed, taking into account the significant results of completed scientific and practical research and related regulations, as well as current policies in the energy sector of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

The proposed Methodology includes seven blocks of indicators with 29 indicators:

—Block of indicators “Energy independence.”

— Block of indicators “Diversification of suppliers and types of energy resources.”

— Block of indicators “Reliability of supplies, redundancy, processing, and distribution of fuel and energy resources.”

— Block of indicators “Reproduction of the general population.”

— Block of indicators “Energy efficiency of final consumption of fuel and energy resources and economic sustainability of the fuel and energy complex.”

— Block of indicators “Environmental efficiency of the fuel and energy complex.”

— Block of social indicators.

The proposed methodology displays indicators that are of high importance for the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan, such as “The ratio of the average annual volume of water used for technological needs by power plants to the existing water supply,” “Energy consumption in the construction sector,” “Level of automation and digitalization of electric power facilities,” “The level of attraction of workers to the energy sector,” “The level of growth in the number of specialists working in the energy sector,” “The effectiveness of R&D in the field of traditional and non-traditional energy (nuclear, hydrogen, renewable, low-carbon, etc.),” etc.

It should be noted that the indicators “The ratio of the average annual volume of water used for technological needs by power plants to the existing water supply” and “The effectiveness of R&D in the field of traditional and non-traditional energy (nuclear, hydrogen, renewable, low-carbon, etc.)” are used for the first time, and the indicator “ The ratio of the volume of primary energy production from renewable energy sources to the gross consumption of fuel and energy resources is taken into account only in the methodology for assessing the level of energy efficiency of the Republic of Belarus.

It is known that the problems of water supply to the energy sector, which act as a global threat to the overall energy security of the Republic of Uzbekistan, deserve careful study in connection with the UN “Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem” (NEXUS) task. It is obvious that the irrational use of water and energy resources leads to disasters and negative environmental consequences.

The proposed methodology is important for strengthening certain areas of energy development in the long term, and will also make it possible to indicate the share of renewable energy sources in the country’s overall energy balance in order to provide the population with stable, clean, and affordable energy, which is consistent with fulfilling obligations under the Paris Agreement on climate change and achieving the SDG-7 goals.

Increasing renewable energy capacity in Uzbekistan also provides for the regulation of energy prices in order to preserve traditional resources, and also contributes to the implementation of the political program, power plants based on renewable energy sources in the future will provide the opportunity to both export “clean” energy and become the dominant supplier of carbon-free energy in the Central Asian region.

Let us note that when implementing the proposed methodology for assessing energy efficiency, it is possible to obtain a transparent picture of the level of energy security in economic sectors, as a result of which we can identify strengths and weaknesses in various areas and prevent the expected negative results in a timely manner. Also, using this methodology, it is possible to predict energy scenarios with a stable and reliable indicator of electricity supply, which will lead to an increase in the country’s energy efficiency.