Abstract
The analysis of seismic hazards relies on the statistical analysis of historical seismic data and the instrumental seismic catalog to obtain the regional earthquake recurrence interval and earthquake probability. The accuracy of analysis thus depends strongly on the completeness of the seismic data used. However, available seismic catalogs are too short or incomplete for the reliable analysis of the statistical characteristics of earthquakes. If a long-term synthetic seismic catalog can be generated using a physics-based numerical simulation, and the simulation results match the crustal deformation, seismicity, and other observations, then such a synthetic catalog helps us to further understand the characteristics of seismic activity and analyze the regional seismic hazard. In this paper, taking the northeastern Tibetan Plateau as a case study, we establish a three-dimensional visco-elastoplastic finite-element model to simulate earthquake cycles and the spatiotemporal evolution of earthquakes on the model fault system and obtain a seismic catalog on a time scale of tens of thousands of years. On the basis that the model satisfies the regional geodynamics of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, we analyze seismicity on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau using the simulated synthetic earthquake catalog. The characteristics of earthquake recurrence at different locations and different magnitudes, and the long-term average probability of earthquake occurrence within the fault system on the northeastern Tibetan plateau are studied. The results are a reference for regional seismic hazard assessment and provide a basis for the physics-based numerical prediction of earthquakes.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Ben-Zion Y, Eneva M, Liu Y. 2003. Large earthquake cycles and intermittent criticality on heterogeneous faults due to evolving stress and seismicity. J Geophys Res, 108: ESE4–1
Burchfiel B C, Zhang P Z, Wang Y P, Zhang W Q, Song F M, Deng Q D, Molnar P, Royden L. 1991. Geology of the Haiyuan fault zone, Ningxia-Hui Autonomous region, China, and its relation to the evolution of the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau. Tectonics, 10: 1091–1110
Burrideg R, Knopoff L. 1967. Model and theoretical seismicity. Bull Seismol Soc Amer, 57: 341–371
Cavalié O, Lasserre C, Doin M P, Peltzer G, Sun J, Xu X, Shen Z K. 2008. Measurement of interseismic strain across the Haiyuan fault (Gansu, China), by InSAR. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 275: 246–257
Chen J. 2017. Seismic hazard modeling of the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Dissertation for Doctoral Degree. Beijing: Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration. 1–135
Chen M X. 2007. Elasticity and Plasticity (in Chinese). Beijing: Science Press
Chen Y T. 2009. Earthquake prediction: Retrospect and prospect (in Chinese). Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 1633–1658
Cornell C A. 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull Seismol Soc Amer, 58: 1583–1606
Deng Q D, Liao Y H. 1996. Paleoseismology along the range-front fault of Helan Mountains, north central China. J Geophys Res, 101: 5873–5893
El-Isa Z H, Eaton D W. 2014. Spatiotemporal variations in the b-value of earthquake magnitude-frequency distributions: Classification and causes. Tectonophysics, 615–616: 1–11
Field E H, Arrowsmith R J, Biasi G P, Bird P, Dawson T E, Felzer K R, Jackson D D, Johnson K M, Jordan T H, Madden C, Michael A J, Milner K R, Page M T, Parsons T, Powers P M, Shaw B E, Thatcher W R, Weldon R J, Zeng Y. 2014. Uniform California earthquake rupture forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3)—The time-independent model. Bull Seismol Soc Amer, 104: 1122–1180
Gan W J, Zhang P Z, Shen Z K, Niu Z J, Wang M, Wan Y G, Zhou D M, Cheng J. 2007. Present-day crustal motion within the Tibetan Plateau inferred from GPS measurements. J Geophys Res, 112: B08416
Gao M T. 2015. GB18306-2015 “The Ground Motion Parameter Zoing Map of China” Promote and Implement the Teaching Material (in Chinese). Beijing: Standards Press of China
Gaudemer Y, Tapponnier P, Meyer B, Peltzer G, Guo S M, Chen Z T, Dai H G, Cifuentes I. 1995. Partitioning of crustal slip between linked, active faults in the eastern Qilian Shan, and evidence for a major seismic gap, the ‘Tianzhu gap’, on the western Haiyuan Fault, Gansu (China). Geophys J Int, 120: 599–645
Geller R J. 1997. Earthquake prediction: A critical review. Geophys J Int, 131: 425–450
Geller R J, Jackson D D, Kagan Y Y, Mulargia F. 1997. Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science, 275: 1616
Grant R A, Halliday T, Balderer W P, Leuenberger F, Newcomer M, Cyr G, Freund F T. 2011. Ground water chemistry changes before major earthquakes and possible effects on animals. Int J Environ Res Public Health, 8: 1936–1956
Gutenberg B, Richter C F. 1944. Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bull Seismol Soc Amer, 34: 185–188
Hagiwara T, Rikitake T. 1967. Japanese Program on Earthquake Prediction: A prediction program now under way in Japan succeeds in longrange forecast of the Matsushiro earthquakes. Science, 157: 761–768
Hagiwara Y. 1974. Probability of earthquake occurrence as obtained from a Weibull distribution analysis of crustal strain. Tectonophysics, 23: 313–318
Hu Y X. 2001. GB18306-2001 “The Ground Motion Parameter Zoing Map of China” Promote and Implement the Teaching Material (in Chinese). Beijing: Standards Press of China
Huang F Q, Zhang X D, Cao Z X, Li J P, Li S H. 2017. The roadmap of numerical earthquake prediction in China (in Chinese). Rec Dev World Seismol, (4): 3–10
Institute of Geology, China Earthquake Administration and Ningxia Bureau of China Earthquake Administration. 1990. Active Haiyuan Fault Zone Monopraph, Special Publications on Active Fault Studies in China (in Chinese). Beijing: Seismological Press
Jiang C S, Wu Z L. 2008. Retrospective forecasting test of a statistical physics model for earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 51: 1401–1410
Jordan T H, Chen Y T, Gasparini P, Madariage R, Main I, Marzocchi W, Papadopoulos G. 2011. Operational earthquake forecasting-state of knowledge and guidelines for utilization. Ann Geophys, 54: 351–391
Kagan Y Y. 2002. Seismic moment distribution revisited: I. Statistical results. Geophys J Int, 148: 520–541
Kagan Y Y, Jackson D D. 1991. Seismic gap hypothesis: Ten years after. J Geophys Res, 96: 21419–21431
Kanamori H, Anderson D L. 1975. Theoretical basis of some empirical relations in seismology. Bull Seismol Soc Amer, 65: 1073–1095
Kisslinger C. 1975. Processes during the Matsushiro, Japan, earthquake swarm as revealed by leveling, gravity, and spring-flow observations. Geology, 3: 57–62
Li Q S, Liu M, Zhang H. 2009. A 3-D viscoelastoplastic model for simulating long-term slip on non-planar faults. Geophys J Int, 176: 293–306
Lin A M, Hu J M, Gong W B. 2015. Active normal faulting and the seismogenic fault of the 1739 M≈8.0 Pingluo earthquake in the intracontinental Yinchuan Graben, China. J Asian Earth Sci, 114: 155–173
Liu B C, Yuan D Y, He W G, Liu X F. 1992. Risk analysis of strong earthquakes in west end of Haiyuan fault (in Chinese). Northwestern Seismol J, Suppl: 49–56
Liu-Zeng J, Klinger Y, Xu X W, Lasserre C, Chen G, Chen W, Tapponnier P, Zhang B. 2007. Millennial recurrence of large earthquakes on the Haiyuan fault near Songshan, Gansu Province, China. Bull Seismol Soc Amer, 97: 14–34
Luo G, Liu M. 2010. Stress evolution and fault interactions before and after the 2008 Great Wenchuan earthquake. Tectonophysics, 491: 127–140
Luo G, Liu M. 2012. Multi-timescale mechanical coupling between the San Jacinto fault and the San Andreas fault, southern California. Lithosphere, 4: 221–229
Luo G, Liu M. 2018. Stressing rates and seismicity on the major faults in eastern Tibetan Plateau. J Geophys Res-Solid Earth, 123: 10968–10986
Ma Z J, Gao Q H, Chen J Y, Gao X L. 2007. Development of cause of disaster reduction and integrated reduction of disasters. J Nat Disaster, 16: 1–6
Min W, Zhang P Z, Deng Q D. 2000. Primary study on regional paleoearthquake recurrence behavior (in Chinese). Acta Seismol Sin, 22: 163–170
Montgomery D R, Manga M. 2003. Streamflow and water well responses to earthquakes. Science, 300: 2047–2049
Nuannin P, Kulhanek O, Persson L. 2005. Spatial and temporal b value anomalies preceding the devastating off coast of NW Sumatra earthquake of December 26, 2004. Geophys Res Lett, 32: L11307
Pan H, Gao M T, Xie F R. 2013. The earthquake activity model and seismicity parameters in the new seismic hazard map of China (in Chinese). Technol Earthq Disaster Prevention, 8: 11–23
Pang Y J, Cheng H H, Zhang H, Shi Y L. 2019. Numerical analysis of the influence of lithospheric structure on surface vertical movements in Eastern Tibet (in Chinese). Chin J Geophys, 62: 1256–1267
Parsons T. 2007. Forecast experiment: Do temporal and spatial b value variations along the Calaveras fault portend M=4.0 earthquakes? J Geophys Res, 112: B03308
Press F, Brace W F. 1966. Earthquake prediction. Science, 152: 1575–1584
Rabeh T, Miranda M, Hvozdara M. 2009. Strong earthquakes associated with high amplitude daily geomagnetic variations. Nat Hazards, 53: 561–574
Robinson R, Benites R. 1996. Synthetic seismicity models for the Wellington Region, New Zealand: Implications for the temporal distribution of large events. J Geophys Res, 101: 27833–27844
Rong Y, Jackson D D. 2002. Earthquake potential in and around China: Estimated from past earthquakes. Geophys Res Lett, 29: 27–1–27–4
Schorlemmer D, Wiemer S. 2005. Earth science: Microseismicity data forecast rupture area. Nature, 434: 1086
Shi Y L, Sun Y Q, Luo G, Dong P Y, Zhang H. 2018. Roadmap for earthquake numerical forecasting in China—Reflection on the tenth anniversary of Wenchuan earthquake (in Chinese). Chin Sci Bull, 63: 1865–1881
Sun Y Q, Luo G. 2018. Spatial-temporal migraton of earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau: Insights from a finite element model (in Chinese). Chin J Geophys, 61: 2246–2264
Sun Y Q, Luo G, Yin L, Shi Y L. 2019. Migration probability of big earthquakes and segmentation of slip rates on the fault system in northeastern Tibetan Plateau (in Chinese). Chin J Geophys, 62: 1663–679
Tapponnier P, Molnar P. 1977. Active faulting and tectonics in China. J Geophys Res, 82: 2905–2930
The Research Group on Active Fault System around Ordos Massif, SSB. 1988. Active Fault System Around Ordos Massif (in Chinese). Beijing: Seismological Press
Turcotte D L, Schubert G. 1982. Geodynamics: Applications of Continuum Physics to Geological Problems. New York: John Wiley & Sons. 450
Utsu T. 1984. Estimation of parameters for recurrence models of earthquakes. Bull Earthquake Res Inst, Univ Tokyo, 59: 53–66
van Dinther Y, Gerya T V, Dalguer L A, Mai P M, Morra G, Giardini D. 2013. The seismic cycle at subduction thrusts: Insights from seismothermo-mechanical models. J Geophys Res-Solid Earth, 118: 6183–6202
Wang H Y, Gao R, Yin A, Xiong X S, Kuang C Y, Li W H, Huang W Y. 2012. Deep structure geometry features of Haiyuan fault and deformation of the crust revealed by deep seismic reflection profiling (in Chinese). Chin J Geophys, 55: 3902–3909
Wang Y P, Song F M, Li Z Y, You H C, An P. 1990. Study on recurrence intervals of great earthquakes in the late Quaternary of Xiangshan-Tianjingshan fault zone in Ningxia (in Chinese). Earthquake Res Chin, 6: 15–24
Ward S N. 1992. An application of synthetic seismicity in earthquake statistics: The Middle America Trench. J Geophys Res, 97: 6675–6682
Wen X Z. 1998. Assessment of time-dependent seismic hazards on segments of active fault, and its problems (in Chinese). Chin Sci Bull, 43: 1457–1466
Wesnousky S G. 1994. The Gutenberg-Richter or characteristic earthquake distribution, which is it? Bull Seismol Soc Amer, 84: 1940–1959
Wiemer S, Wyss M. 2000. Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan. Bull Seismol Soc Amer, 90: 859–869
Wolfram S. 1984. Cellular automata as models of complexity. Nature, 311: 419–424
Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities. 1988. Probabilites of large earthquakes occurring in California on the San Andereas fault. U S Geol Surv, Open-File Report
Wyss M. 2015. Testing the basic assumption for probabilistic seismichazard assessment: 11 failures. Seismol Res Lett, 86: 1405–1411
Xiao J, He J. 2015. 3D finite-element modeling of earthquake interaction and stress accumulation on main active faults around the northeastern Tibetan Plateau edge in the past ≈100 years. Bull Seismol Soc Amer, 105: 2724–2735
Yi G X, Wen X Z, Xu X W. 2002. Study on recurrence behaviors of strong earthquakes for several entireties of active fault zones in Sichuan- Yunnan region (in Chinese). Earthq Res Chin, 18: 267–276
Yin L, Luo G, Sun Y Q. 2018. Middle-lower crust flow and crustal deformation: Insights from a finite element modeling (in Chinese). Chin J Geophys, 61: 3933–3950
Zang S X, Qiang Wei R, Liu Y G. 2005. Three-dimensional rheological structure of the lithosphere in the Ordos block and its adjacent area. Geophys J Int, 163: 339–356
Zhang G M, Zhang X D, Wu R H, Jiang Z S, Liu J, Zhang Y X, Li G, Li M X. 2005. Retrospect of earthquake forecast and prospect (in Chinese). Rec Dev World Seismol, 5: 39–53
Zhang P Z, Molnar P, Burchfiel B C, Royden L, Wang Y P, Deng Q D, Song F M, Zhang W Q, Jiao D C. 1988. Bounds on the Holocene slip rate of the Haiyuan fault, north-central China. Quat Res, 30: 151–164
Zhang P Z, Min W, Deng Q D, Mao F Y. 2005. Paleoearthquake rupture behavior and recurrence of great earthquakes along the Haiyuan fault, northeastern China. Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci, 48: 364–375
Zhang P Z, Deng Q D, Zhang Z Q, Li H B. 2013. Active faults, earthquake hazards and associated geodynamic processes in continental China (in Chinese). Sci China Earth Sci, 43: 1607–1620
Zhao Y L, Qian F Y. 1994. Geoelectric precursors to strong earthquakes in China. Tectonophysics, 233: 99–113
Zheng W J, Zhang P Z, He W G, Yuan D Y, Shao Y X, Zheng D W, Ge W P, Min W. 2013. Transformation of displacement between strike-slip and crustal shortening in the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau: Evidence from decadal GPS measurements and late Quaternary slip rates on faults. Tectonophysics, 584: 267–280
Zhou S Y. 2008. Seismicity simulation in western Sichuan of China based on the fault interactions and its implication on the estimation of the regional earthquake risk (in Chinese). Chin J Geophys, 51: 165–174
Zhu A Y, Zhang D N, Jiang C S. 2016. Numerical simulation of the segmentation of the stress state of the Anninghe-Zemuhe-Xiaojiang faults. Sci China Earth Sci, 59: 384–396
Zhu S B, Zhang P Z. 2013. FEM simulation of interseismic and coseismic deformation associated with the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. Tectonophysics, 584: 64–80
Zilio L D, Van D Y, Gerya T V, Pranger C C. 2018. Seismic behaviour of mountain belts controlled by plate convergence rate. Earth Planet Sci Lett, 482: 81–92
Acknowledgements
We thank three anonymous reviewers for the constructive suggestions. This work was supported by China Earthquake Science Experiment Project, CEA (Grant No. 2019CSES0112), and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41574085, 41974107, 41590865 & U1839207).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Sun, Y., Luo, G., Hu, C. et al. Preliminary analysis of earthquake probability based on the synthetic seismic catalog. Sci. China Earth Sci. 63, 985–998 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-019-9582-9
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-019-9582-9