Abstract
To develop scientific countermeasures, the impacts of climate change on cotton yield during 1961–2010 in three major cotton-producing regions of China were studied by using the available provincial data. The results indicate that (1) a rise in average temperature increased the cotton yield in most provinces of Northwest China and the Yellow River valley; however, the rise in average temperature decreased the cotton yield in the Yangtze River valley. Moreover, cotton production across the entire study region was reduced by approximately 0.1% relative to the average during 1961–2010. (2) A decrease in diurnal temperature range (DTR) reduced cotton yield in some provinces, while a beneficial DTR effect was observed in the other provinces. Changes in DTR resulted in an average decrease in production by approximatly 5.5% across the entire study region. (3) A change in the amount of precipitation increased the cotton yield in some provinces; however, it caused a decrease in other provinces. The decrease in average production due to the change in precipitation was approximately 1.1%. We concluded that the changes in temperature and precipitation decreased cotton yields in China, while beneficial effects of temperature and precipitation existed in the cotton-growing regions of Northwest China during 1961–2010.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles, news and stories from top researchers in related subjects.Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Chmielewski, F. M., and J. M. Potts, 1995: The relationship between crop yields from an experiment in southern England and long-term climate variations. Agr. Forest Meteor., 73, 43–66.
Committee of National Assessment Report on Climate Change, 2007: China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change. China Science Press, Beijing, 80–105. (in Chinese)
Data Sharing Infrastructure of Earth System Science (DSIESS), 2011: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences 2009. [Online]. Available: http://www.geodata.cn/ [25 November 2011]. (in Chinese)
Dhakhwa, G. B., and C. L. Campbell, 1998: Potential effects of differential day-night warming in global climate change on crop production. Climatic Change, 40, 647–667.
Ding Yihui, Ren Guoyu, Shi Guangyu, et al., 2006: National assessment report of climate change (I): Climate change in China and its future trend. Adv. Climate Change Res., 2, 3–8. (in Chinese)
Ding Yihui, Ren Guoyu, Zhao Zongci, et al., 2007: Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 24, 954–971.
Fang Cheng and B. A. Babcock, 2003: China’s cotton policy and the impact of China’s WTO accession and Bt cotton adoption on the Chinese and U.S. cotton sectors. Working Paper 03-WP-322, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011–1070.
Hsu, H. H., and F. Gale, 2001: “Regional Shifts in China’s Cotton Production and Use” in Cotton and Wool Situation and Outlook. Economic Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Washington D.C., 19–25.
IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. McCarthy, J. J., O. F. Canziani, N. A. Leary, et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1032 pp.
IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 996 pp.
Leopold, A. C., and P. E. Kriedemann, 1975: Plant Growth and Development. McGraw-Hill, New York, 545 pp.
Liu Binhui, Ming Xu, M. Henderson, et al., 2004: Taking China’s temperature: Daily range, warming trends, and regional variations, 1955–2000. J. Climate, 17, 4453–4462.
Liu Leilei, Wang Enli, Zhu Yan, et al., 2012: Contrasting effects of warming and autonomous breeding on single-rice productivity in China. Agr. Ecosyst. Environ., 149, 20–29.
Liu Yuan, Wang Enli, Yang Xiaoguang, et al., 2010: Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain, since 1980s. Global Change Biol., 16, 2287–2299.
Lobell, D. B., 2007: Changes in diurnal temperature range and national cereal yields. Agr. Forest Meteor., 145, 229–238.
Lobell, D. B., and J. I. Ortiz-Monasterio, 2007: Impacts of day versus night temperatures on spring wheat yields: A comparison of empirical and CERES model predictions in three locations. Agron. J., 99, 469–477.
Lobell, D. B., M. B. Burke, C. Tebaldi, et al., 2008: Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, 319, 607–610.
Lu Yanhui, Qiu Fei, Feng Hongqiang, et al., 2008: Species composition and seasonal abundance of pestiferous plant bugs (Hemiptera: Miridae) on Bt cotton in China. Crop Prot., 27, 465–472.
Matsui, T., and T. Horie, 1992: Effects of elevated CO2 and high temperature on growth and yield of rice. 2: Sensitive period and pollen germination rate in high temperature sterility of rice spikelets at flowering. Japan J. Crop Sci., 61, 148–149.
Nicholls, N., 1997: Increased Australian wheat yield due to recent climate trends. Nature, 387, 484–485.
Parry, M. L., C. Rosenzweig, A. Iglesias, et al., 2004: Effects of climate change on global food production under SRES emissions and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ. Change, 14, 53–67.
Peng Shaobing, Huang Jianliang, J. E. Sheehy, et al., 2004: Rice yields decline with higher night temperature from global warming. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 101, 9971–9975.
Qian Shuan, Chen Hui, and Wang Liangyu, 2007: Operational prediction method of nationwide cotton development stages. J. Appl. Meteor. Sci., 18, 539–547. (in Chinese)
Qin Dahe, Ding Yihui, Su Jilan, et al., 2005: Assessment of climate and environment changes in China (I): Climate and environment changes in China and their projection. Adv. Climate Change Res., 1, 4–9. (in Chinese)
Ryan, M. G., 1991: Effects of climate change on plant respiration. Ecol. Appl., 1, 157–167.
Schlenker, W., and M. J. Roberts, 2009: Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 106, 15594–15598.
Schmidhuber, J., and F. N. Tubiello, 2007: Global food security under climate change. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 19703–19708.
Sheehy, J. E., P. L. Mitchell, and A. B. Ferrer, 2006: Decline in rice grain yields with temperature: Models and correlations can give different estimates. Field Crops Res., 98, 151–156.
Tao Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Y. Hayashi, et al., 2003: Changes in agricultural water demands and soil moisture in China over the last half-century and their effects on agricultural production. Agr. Forest Meteor., 118, 251–261.
Tao Fulu and M. Yokozawa, 2005: Risk analyses of rice yield to seasonal climate variability in China. J. Agr. Meteor., 60, 885–887.
Tao Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Xu Yinlong, et al., 2006: Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China, 1981–2000. Agr. Forest Meteor., 138, 82–92.
Tao Fulu, M. Yokozawa, Liu Jiyuan, et al., 2008a: Climate-crop yield relationships at provincial scales in China and the impacts of recent climate trends. Climate Res., 38, 83–94.
Tao Fulu, Y. Hayashi, Zhang Zhao, et al., 2008b: Global warming, rice production, and water use in China: Developing a probabilistic assessment. Agr. Forest Meteor., 148, 94–110.
Tao Fulu, Zhang Zhao, Zhang Shuai, et al., 2012: Response of crop yields to climate trends since 1980 in China. Climate Res., 54, 233–247.
Tao Fulu, Zhang Zhao, Shi Wenjiao, et al., 2013: Single rice growth period was prolonged by cultivars shifts, but yield was damaged by climate change during 1981–2009 in China, and late rice was just opposite. Global Change Biol., 19, 3200–3209.
Tao Fulu, Zhang Zhao, Xiao Dengpan, et al., 2014: Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China, 1981–2009. Agr. Forest Meteor., 91–104, 189–190.
The Ministry of Agriculture of the People’s Republic of China, 2009: New China’s Agricultural Statistics for 60 Years. China Agriculture Press, Beijing, 303–305. (in Chinese)
Wei Fengying, 2007: Statistics Technology of Diagnose and Forecast of Modern Climate. China Meteorological Press, Beijing, 50–70. (in Chinese)
Yang, W., Peng Shaobing, R. C. Laza, et al., 2008: Yield gap analysis between dry and wet season rice crop grown under high-yielding management conditions. Agron. J., 100, 1390–1395.
Zhang Fuchun, 1987: Chinese Agricultural Phenology Atlas. Science Press, Beijing, 134–178. (in Chinese)
Zhang Tianyi, Zhu Jiang, and R. Wassmann, 2010: Responses of rice yields to recent climate change in China: An empirical assessment based on long-term observations at different spatial scales (1981–2005). Agr. Forest Meteor., 150, 1128–1137.
Zhang Tianyi and Huang Yao, 2012: Impacts of climate change and interannual variability on cereal crops in China from 1980 to 2008. J. Sci. Food Agr., 92, 1643–1652.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund (GYHY201206022), Transgenic Major Project (2012ZX08013010), and “948” Program (2011-G19).
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Chen, C., Pang, Y., Pan, X. et al. Impacts of climate change on cotton yield in China from 1961 to 2010 based on provincial data. J Meteorol Res 29, 515–524 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-4082-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-4082-7