Abstract
In this paper, we develop a unique time-varying forecasting model for dynamic demand of medical resources based on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) influenza diffusion model. In this forecasting mechanism, medical resources allocated in the early period will take effect in subduing the spread of influenza and thus impact the demand in the later period. We adopt a discrete time-space network to describe the medical resources allocation process following a hypothetical influenza outbreak in a region. The entire medical resources allocation process is constructed as a multi-stage integer programming problem. At each stage, we solve a cost minimization sub-problem subject to the time-varying demand. The corresponding optimal allocation result is then used as an input to the control process of influenza spread, which in turn determines the demand for the next stage. In addition, we present a comparison between the proposed model and an empirical model. Our results could help decision makers prepare for a pandemic, including how to allocate limited resources dynamically.
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Ming Liu is currently an associate professor in Department of Management Science and Engineering, School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology. He received his Ph.D. in System Engineering from Southeast University in 2010. His research interests include issues related to OM in healthcare logistics. He has published over 20 papers in international journals such as International Journal of Systems Science, International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information and Control, Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, etc. He is a member of POMS and Systems Engineering Society of China.
Zhe Zhang is currently a lecturer in Department of Management Science and Engineering, School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology. She received her Ph.D. in management science and engineering from Sichuan University in 2012. Her research interests include issues related to scheduling with limited resources. She has published over 10 papers in international journals such as International Journal of Civil Engineering, Journal of Scheduling, Transport, etc.
Ding Zhang is a professor in School of Business, State University of New York, Oswego. He received his B.S. from University of Science & Technology of China, his M.S. from Tsinghua University, and his Ph.D. from University of Massachusetts at Amherst in 1997. His research interests include transportation assignment modeling, supply chain economy, regional planning, multi criteria decision making and game theory.
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Liu, M., Zhang, Z. & Zhang, D. A dynamic allocation model for medical resources in the control of influenza diffusion. J. Syst. Sci. Syst. Eng. 24, 276–292 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-015-5276-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11518-015-5276-y