Abstract
Winter precipitation over eastern China displays remarkable interannual variability, which has been suggested to be closely related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study finds that ENSO impacts on eastern China precipitation patterns exhibit obvious differences in early (November–December) and late (January–February) winter. In early winter, precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO are characterized by a monopole spatial distribution over eastern China. In contrast, the precipitation anomaly pattern in late winter remarkably changes, manifesting as a dipole spatial distribution. The noteworthy change in precipitation responses from early to late winter can be largely attributed to the seasonally varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies. During the early winter of El Niño years, anticyclonic circulation anomalies appear both over the Philippine Sea and Kuroshio region, enhancing water vapor transport to the entirety of eastern China, thus contributing to more precipitation there. During the late winter of El Niño years, the anticyclone over the Philippine Sea is further strengthened, while the one over the Kuroshio dissipates, which could result in differing water vapor transport between northern and southern parts of eastern China and thus a dipole precipitation distribution. Roughly the opposite anomalies of circulation and precipitation are displayed during La Niña winters. Further analysis suggests that the seasonally-varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies are possibly related to the enhancement of ENSO-related tropical central-eastern Pacific convection from early to late winter. These results have important implications for the seasonal-to-interannual predictability of winter precipitation over eastern China.
摘 要
中国东部冬季降水呈现出显著的年际变化,被表明与厄尔尼诺–南方涛动(ENSO)密切相关。本研究发现,ENSO对中国东部降水模态的影响在前冬(11月–12月)和后冬(1月–2月)具有明显的差异。在前冬,与ENSO相关的降水异常在中国东部表现为一致型的空间分布特征。对比之下,后冬的降水异常模态发生明显的改变,表现为偶极型的空间分布。降水响应从前冬到后冬的显著变化,可主要归因于季节变化的黑潮反气旋性环流异常。在厄尔尼诺年前冬,菲律宾海和黑潮地区都呈现出反气旋性环流异常,促进水汽向整个中国东部的输送,从而导致了更多的降水。在厄尔尼诺年后冬,菲律宾海上的反气旋进一步增强,而黑潮地区的反气旋则消散,这导致中国东部的北部和南部地区之间的水汽输送存在差异,从而形成偶极型的降水分布;拉尼娜年则呈现出几乎相反的环流异常和相应的降水异常。进一步分析表明,季节变化的黑潮反气旋异常可能与厄尔尼诺相关的热带中东太平洋上的对流从前冬到后冬的增强有关。这些结果对于中国东部冬季降水的季节至年际可预测性具有重要意义。
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Data Availability Statement. The ERA5 dataset can be obtained from https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means?tab=form. HadISST data are available at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html. Monthly subsurface ocean temperature data is from https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysisoras5?tab=overview, CMAP precipitation data are derived from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.cmap.html. CMIP6 model data are available from the CMIP6 Search Interface at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6.
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We appreciate the valuable comments and suggestions provided by the editor and anonymous reviewers, which greatly enhanced the quality of the manuscript. This work is supported by the National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFF0801602). We acknowledge the High-Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology for their support of this work.
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• ENSO-associated precipitation anomalies exhibit different spatial patterns over eastern China in early and late winter. A monopole precipitation anomaly pattern is detected in early winter while the precipitation anomaly in late winter is characterized by a meridional dipole spatial distribution.
• The remarkable change in precipitation responses to ENSO from early to late winter can be largely attributed to the seasonally-varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies, possibly due to the enhancement of ENSO-associated tropical central-eastern Pacific convection from early to late winter.
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Different ENSO Impacts on Eastern China Precipitation Patterns in Early and Late Winter Associated with Seasonally-Varying Kuroshio Anticyclonic Anomalies
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Yan, J., Zhang, W., Hu, S. et al. Different ENSO Impacts on Eastern China Precipitation Patterns in Early and Late Winter Associated with Seasonally-Varying Kuroshio Anticyclonic Anomalies. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 41, 1691–1703 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3196-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3196-1