Abstract
The main concentration of the present study is on the evaluation of some important reliability measures of a single-unit system considering arbitrary distributions for the random variables associated with failure and repair times, time to change of weather conditions, inspection time and arrival time of the server. The system operates under two weather conditions-normal and abnormal. The unit fails completely via partial failure. There is a single server who takes some time to arrive at the system. Server inspects the unit at its complete failure to see the feasibility of its repair while repair of the unit at partial failure is done without inspection. The unit works as new after repair at partial failure whereas unit is assumed as degraded after repair at complete failure. Inspection of the degraded unit is also conducted at its failure to examine the feasibility of repair. The degraded unit is replaced by new one if inspection reveals that its repair is not feasible to the system. Some measures of system effectiveness are obtained using semi-Markov and regenerative point technique. Giving particular values to various parameters and costs, the numerical results for mean time to system failure, availability and profit function are obtained considering exponential and Rayleigh distributions for all random variables.
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1 Introduction
The stochastic models of single-unit systems with different failure modes have been probed by the researchers at large scale due to their intrinsic reliability and common man’s affordability. The authors including Chander and Bansal (2005) and Malik (2008) studied single-unit systems under the assumptions that
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i
Environmental conditions remain static.
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ii
Unit has a constant failure rate.
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iii
Unit works as new after repair.
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iv
Server visits the system immediately when required.
But it is very difficult to keep the environmental conditions in the control which may fluctuate due to changing climate, voltage and other natural catastrophic. Also, hazard rates of many systems such as rotating shafts and valves are of linearly increased nature due to wear out under mechanical stress and so their failure times follow arbitrary distributions like Rayleigh distribution. Malik and Barak (2009) and Pawar et al. (2010) have obtained reliability measures of single-unit systems operating under different weather conditions with exponential distributions for failure and repair rates.
Further, the working capacity and efficiency of a unit after repair depend more or less on the standard of the repair mechanism exercised. If the unit is repaired by an ordinary server, it may work with reduced efficiency and so called a degraded unit. Malik et al. (2010) made cost analysis of a system with priority to repair subject to degradation. In addition to the above, it is not always possible for a server to visit the system immediately may because of his pre-occupations and in such a situation the server may take some time to arrive at the system (called arrival time).
While incorporating above ideas, in the present paper a reliability model for a single-unit system is developed considering arbitrary distributions for the random variables associated with failure and repair times, time to change of weather conditions, inspection time and arrival time of the server. The system operates under two weather conditions-normal and abnormal. The unit fails completely via partial failure. There is a single server who takes some time to arrive at the system. Server inspects the unit at its complete failure to see the feasibility of its repair while repair of the unit at partial failure is done without inspection. The unit works as new after repair at partial failure whereas unit is assumed as degraded after repair at complete failure. Inspection of the degraded unit is also conducted at its failure to examine the feasibility of repair. The degraded unit is replaced by new one if inspection reveals that its repair is not feasible to the system. Some measures of system effectiveness such as mean sojourn times, MTSF, availability, Busy period analysis of the server, expected number of visits by the server and profit function are obtained using semi-Markov and regenerative point technique. Giving particular values to various parameters and costs, the numerical results for MTSF, availability and profit function are obtained considering exponential and Rayleigh distributions for all random variables.
The possible transition states of the system model are shown in the following table.
S0 | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | S6 | S7 | S8 | S9 | S10 | S11 | S12 | S13 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N0 | Pwr | Fwi | Pur | Pwr | Fui | Fwi | Fur | D0 | Fwr | DFui | DFur | DFwi | DFwr |
All states (S0–S13) are regenerative. Thus E = {Si; 0 ≤ i ≤ 13}. The possible transition states along with transition rates for the model are shown in Fig. 1.
2 Transition probabilities and mean sojourn times
It can be observed that the epoch of entry into any of the states Si ∈ E are regenerative point. Let T 0(≡0), T 1, T 2, … denote the epochs at which the system enters any state Si ∈ E. Let X n denote the state visited at epoch T n +, i.e. just after transition at T n . Then {X n , T n } is a Markov-renewal process with state space E and
\( {\text{Q}}_{\text{ij}} ({\text{t}}) = \Pr \, \{ {\text{X}}_{\text{n + 1}} = {\text{ j}},{\text{ T}}_{\text{n + 1}} - {\text{T}}_{\text{n}} \, \le {\text{ t }}|{\text{ X}}_{\text{n}} \, = {\text{ i}}\} \, \)is the semi-Markov kernel over E.
The transition probability matrix of embedded Markov-chain is
\( {\text{p}} = ({\text{p}}_{\text{ij}} ) = ({\text{Q}}_{\text{ij}} \left( \infty \right) = {\text{Q}}(\infty )) \) with non-zero elements.
By probabilistic arguments, the non-zero elements pij are
where p01 means that probability of the normal unit is partially failed at time t.
All other transition probabilities can be explained in the same manner and given by
It can be easily verified that
The mean sojourn times μi in the state Si are given by
Also,
3 Reliability and mean time to system failure
Let ϕi(t) be the c.d.f of first passage time from the regenerative state Si to a failed state. Regarding the failed state as absorbing state, we have the following recursive relation for ϕi(t):
where Sj is an un-failed regenerative state to which the given regenerative state Si can transit and Sk is a failed state to which the state Si can transit directly.
Taking LST of above relations (5) and solving for \(\phi _{0}^{{**}} \)(s), we have
The reliability of the system model can be obtained by taking inverse LT of (6)
MTSF is given by
where N1 = (μ0 + μ1)(1 − p34p43) + p13(μ3 + p34μ4), D1 = 1 − p34p43 − p13p30.
4 Steady state availability
Let Ai(t) be the probability that the system is in up state at instant ‘t’ given that the system entered regenerative state Si at t = 0. The recursive relations for Ai(t) are given as
where Sj is any successive regenerative state to which the regenerative state Si can transit and Mi(t)’s obtained as
Taking LT of relations (8) and solving for A *0 (s). The steady state availability can be determined as
where
5 Busy period analysis
Let Bi(t) be the probability that the server is busy in repairing the unit at an instant ‘t’ given that the system entered regenerative state Si at t = 0. The recursive relations for Bi(t) are given as
where Sj is any successive regenerative state to which the regenerative state Si can transit and Wi(t) can be obtained as
Taking LT of relations (11) and solving for B *0 (s). The busy period of the server can be determined as.
where
and D2 has already mentioned.
6 Expected number of visits by the server
Let Ni (t) be the expected number of visits by the server in (0, t] given that the system entered the regenerative state Si at t = 0, we have the following recurrence relations for Ni(t):
where Sj is any regenerative state to which the given regenerative state Si transits.
Taking LST of the relation (14) and solving for \( \text N_{0}^{**} \)(s). The expression for expected number of visits per unit time is given by
where
and D2 has already mentioned.
7 Profit analysis
Any manufacturing industry is basically a profit making organization and no organization can survive for long without minimum financial returns for its investment. There must be an optimal balance between the reliability aspect of a product and its cost. The major factors contributing to the total cost are availability, busy period of server and expected number of visits by the server. The cost of these individual items varies with reliability or mean time to system failure. In order to increase the reliability of the products, we would require a correspondingly high investment in the research and development activities. The production cost also would increase with the requirement of greater reliability.
The revenue and cost function leads to the profit function of a firm/organization, as the profit is excess of revenue over the cost of production. The profit function in time t is given by
P(t) = expected revenue in (0, t] − expected total cost in (0, t]
In general, the optimal policies can more easily be derived for an infinite time span or compared to a finite time span. The profit per unit time, in infinite time span is expressed as
i.e. profit per unit time = total revenue per unit time − total cost per unit time. Considering the various costs, the profit equation is given as
where P profit per unit time incurred to the system, K0 revenue per unit up time of the system, A0 total fraction of time for which the system is operative, K1 cost per unit time for which server is busy, B0 total fraction of time for which the server is busy, K2 cost per visit by the server, N0 expected number of visits per unit time for the server.
8 Results and discussion
To show the importance of results and characterize the behavior of MTSF, availability and profit of the system, here we assume that failure times of units, time of change of weather conditions, repair times of the units, inspection times and arrival time of the server as Weibull distributed with two parameters. Probability density function of Weibull distribution with two parameters is given by
where b and λ are positive constants and are known as shape and scale parameters respectively. From the properties of Weibull distribution, If b = 0, it become the exponential distribution and when b = 1, it becomes the Rayleigh distribution.
Let
For particular values to various parameters and costs, the numerical results for MTSF, availability and profit function are obtained by considering exponential and Rayleigh distributions for all random variables associated with failure, weather conditions, inspection, waiting time of the server and repair times as shown in Tables 1, 2 and 3.
Table 1 depicts that MTSF keeps on increasing with the increase of normal weather rate (β1) and repair rate (θ1) of the partially failed unit. However, there is a sudden decrease in the value of MTSF with the increase of failure rate (r2) of the partially unit and abnormal weather rate (β). From Tables 2 and 3, it is observed that availability and profit of the system increase with the increase of normal weather rate (β1) for fixed values of other parameters including K0 = 5,000, K1 = 500 and K2 = 50. And, their values decrease as failure rate (r2) of the partially unit and abnormal weather rate (β) increase. It can also be seen that availability and profit of the system increase with the increase of repair rate (θ1) of the partially failed unit and by interchange the values of probabilities of feasibility of repair or replacement of failed degraded unit (i.e. p1 and q1).
From Tables 1, 2 and 3, it is observed that the behavior for MTSF, availability and profit of the system is same for both the distributions.
9 Conclusion
The numerical results for MTSF, availability and profit function are obtained considering exponential and Rayleigh distributions for several random variables associated with failure time, repair time, change of weather conditions, inspection time and arrival time of the server as shown respectively in Tables 1, 2 and 3. It is observed that a single-unit system has more values of MTSF if random variables follow exponential distribution rather than Rayleigh distribution. But availability of such a system is more in case random variables are Rayleigh distributed. Table 3 indicates that single-unit system is more profitable with exponential distribution for random variables. However, a single-unit system will be more profitable with Rayleigh distribution if β = 0.3.
Abbreviations
- E:
-
Set of regenerative states
- N0/D0 :
-
The unit is operative in Normal/Degraded mode
- p1/q1 :
-
Probability that repair of degraded unit is feasible/not feasible
- p2/q2 :
-
Probability that repair of complete failed unit is feasible/not feasible
- Pur/Pwr :
-
Unit is partially failed and under repair/waiting for repair
- Fui/Fwi/Fur/Fwr :
-
Unit is completely failed and under inspection/waiting for inspection/under repair/waiting for repair
- DFui/DFwi/DFur/DFwr :
-
Degraded unit is failed and under inspection/waiting for inspection/under repair/waiting for repair
- f1(t)/F1(t), f2(t)/F2(t), f3(t)/F3(t):
-
p.d.f./c.d.f. for failure time distribution of normal unit, partially failed unit, degraded unit
- g(t)/G(t), g1(t)/G1(t) g2(t)/G2(t):
-
p.d.f./c.d.f. for repair time distribution of normal unit after complete failure, partial failure, degraded unit
- w(t)/W(t):
-
p.d.f./c.d.f. for arrival time of the server
- z(t)/Z(t), z1(t)/Z1(t):
-
p.d.f./c.d.f. for time to change of weather conditions form normal to abnormal, abnormal to normal
- h1(t)/H1(t):
-
pdf/cdf for inspection time of the degraded unit
- h2(t)/H2(t):
-
pdf/cdf for inspection time of the complete failed unit
- qij(t)/Qij(t):
-
pdf/cdf for first passage time from regenerative state i to a regenerative state j or to a failed state j without visiting any other regenerative state in (0, t]
- mij :
-
The conditional mean sojourn time in regenerative state Si when system is to make transition into regenerative state Sj. Mathematically, it can be written as \( m_{ij} = E(\mathop T\nolimits_{ij} ) = \int\limits_{0}^{\infty } {td[Q_{ij} (t)] = - q_{ij}^{{ *^{\prime}}} (0)} \), where T ij is the transition time from state Si to Sj Si, Sj ε E
- μ i :
-
The mean Sojourn time in state Si this is given by \( \upmu_{i} = E(\mathop T\nolimits_{i} ) = \int\limits_{0}^{\infty } {P(T_{i} > t)dt = \sum\limits_{j} {m_{ij} } } \), where T i is the sojourn time in state Si
- Mi(t):
-
Probability that the system initially up in the regenerative state Si at time t without passing through any other regenerative state
- Wi(t):
-
Probability that the server is busy at an instant t, given that the system entered into the regenerative state Si at t = 0
- ®/©:
-
Symbol of Laplace Stieltjes Convolution/Laplace convolution
- **|*:
-
Symbols for Laplace Stieltjes Transform (LST)/Laplace transform (LT)
References
Chander S, Bansal RK (2005) Profit analysis of single-unit reliability models with repair at different failures modes. Proc. INCRSE IIT Kharagpur, India, pp 577–587
Malik SC (2008) Reliability modeling and profit analysis of a single-unit system with inspection by a server who appears and disappears randomly. Pure Appl Math Sci LXVII(1–2):135–146
Malik SC, Barak MS (2009) Reliability and economic analysis of a system operating under different weather conditions. J Proc Natl Acad Sci 79(Pt II):205–213
Malik SC, Kadyan MS, Kumar J (2010) Cost-analysis of a system under priority to repair and degradation. Int J Stat Syst 5(1):1–10
Pawar D, Malik SC, Bahl S (2010) Steady state analysis of an operating system with repair at different levels of damages subject to inspection and weather conditions. Int J Agricult Stat Sci 6(1):225–234
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The authors are thankful to the reviewers for their valuable comments that led to an improved presentation of the paper.
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Kadyan, M.S., Promila & Kumar, J. Reliability modeling of a single-unit system with arbitrary distributions subject to different weather conditions. Int J Syst Assur Eng Manag 5, 313–319 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-013-0168-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s13198-013-0168-3