Summary
Increasing uncertainty about economic and social developments is a definitive feature of globalization in advanced economies. However, increasing uncertainty does not impact all regions, states, organizations or individuals in the same way. There are institutional settings and social structures, historically grown and country-specific, that determine the degree to which people are affected by rising uncertainty. This paper develops a multilevel theoretical framework and summarizes the main empirical results from the first phase of the international research project GLOBALIFE. There is empirical evidence that youth in all countries are clearly exposed to more uncertainty in the course of globalization. Yet uncertainty is unequal, with risk accumulating in certain groups, generally those at the bottom. Uncertainty impacts family formation, with those in more precarious positions more likely to postpone or forgo partnership and parenthood. Youth develop rational responses to this uncertainty, which we identified in the form of diverse behavioral strategies. A notable result is that young men and women are affected and respond differently to uncertainty, resulting in an unmistakable gender-specific strategy, particularly in the male-breadwinner societies. We show overwhelming support for the expectation that nation-specific institutions serve to shield or funnel this uncertainty in unique ways and to particular groups of youth.
Zusammenfassung
Globalisierung, Ungewissheit und Wandel in Lebensläufen Jugendlicher und junger Erwachsener
Zunehmende Flexibilitätserfordemisse und wachsende Unsicherheiten bezüglich ökonomischer und sozialer Entwicklungen sind ein wesentliches Merkmal des Globalisierungsprozesses in modernen Gesellschaften. Diese Unsicherheiten betreffen aber nicht alle Regionen, Staaten, Organisationen und Individuen in derselben Weise. Historisch gewachsene, länderspezifische Institutionen und soziale Strukturen kanalisieren diese Prozesse und bestimmen die Intensität, in der die Individuen den wachsenden globalen Unsicherheiten ausgesetzt sind. Der vorliegende Beitrag entwickelt eine Mehrebenen-Theorie für diese Prozesse und fasst die ersten empirischen Ergebnisse des GLOBALIFE-Projekts, das sich zunächst mit den Effekten der Globalisierung auf den Übergang vom Jugendlichen zum Erwachsenen beschäftigt hat, kurz zusammen. Die international vergleichende Studie liefert insbesondere Belege dafür, dass vor allem Jugendliche und junge Erwachsene den Veränderungen durch den Globalisierungsprozess besonders stark ausgesetzt sind. Wachsende Unsicherheiten werden vor allem auf sie abgewälzt und Flexibilisierungsbestrebungen gehen insbesondere zu ihren Lasten. Dabei kumulieren diese Risiken bei den benachteiligten Gruppen, die sich am wenigsten wehren können. Vermittelt über die wachsenden Unsicherheiten in den Beschäftigungsverhältnissen ergeben sich auch indirekte Wirkungen für die Familienbildung. Junge Leute mit befristeten Beschäftigungsverhältnissen, Teilzeitarbeit oder anderen prekären Arbeitsverhältnissen entwickeln neue Strategien, schieben ihre Familienbildung deutlich auf, optieren vermehrt für nicht-eheliche und damit flexiblere Partnerschaften oder verzichten sogar ganz auf Kinder. In diesem Zusammenhang zeigen sich auch deutliche geschlechtsspezifische Unterschiede, vor allem in den Ländern mit eher traditionellem Familiensystem.
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Mills, M., Blossfeld, HP. Globalization, uncertainty and changes in early life courses. ZfE 6, 188–218 (2003). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11618-003-0023-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11618-003-0023-4