Abstract
In some previous papers a probabilistic methodology was introduced to estimate a spatial index of risk of groundwater quality degradation, defined as the conditional probability of exceeding assigned thresholds of concentration of a generic chemical sampled in the studied water system. A crucial stage of this methodology was the use of geostatistical techniques to provide an estimation of the above-mentioned probability in a number of selected points by crossing spatial and temporal information. In this work, spatial risk values were obtained using alternatively stochastic conditional simulation and disjunctive kriging. A comparison between the resulting two sets of spatial risks, based on global and local statistical tests, showed that they do not come from the same statistical population and, consequently, they cannot be viewed as equivalent in a statistical sense. At a first glance, geostatistical conditional simulation may appear to represent the spatial variability of the phenomenon more effectively, as the latter tends to be smoothed by DK. However, a close examination of real case study results suggests that disjunctive kriging is more effective than simulation in estimating the spatial risk of groundwater quality degradation. In the study case, the potentially ‘harmful event’considered, threatening a natural ‘vulnerable groundwater system,’ is fertilizer and manure application.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles, news and stories from top researchers in related subjects.Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
AA.VV. (1996). Vulnerabilità naturale e rischio di inquinamento delle acque sotterranee nella Pianura Padana. In G. Giuliano (Ed.), Rapporti dell’Istituto di Ricerca Sulle Acque (pp. 145). Roma: Irsa — CNR.
Armstrong, M., & Dowd, P. A. (1993). (Eds.) Geostatistical simulation. London: Kluwer.
Barelli, G., Marino, L., & Pagotto, A. (1990). (Eds.) Caratterizzazione idraulica degli acquiferi. Studi sulla vulnerabilità degli acquiferi 2. In Quaderni di tecniche di protezione ambientale — Protezione delle acque sotterranee (pp. 15–26). Bologna: Pitagora.
Claiborne, H. C., & Gera, F. (1974). Potential containement failure mechanisms and their consequencies at a radioactive waste repository in bedded salt in New Mexico. In Oak Ridge National Laboratory Report ORNL-TM-4639.
Colombetti, A., Gelmini, R., & Zavatti, A. (1980). La conoide del fiume Secchia: modalità di alimentazione e rapporti col fiume (Province di Modena e Reggio Emilia). In Quad. Ist. Ric. Acque (p. 51). Roma: Irsa — CNR.
DLgs N. 152/99. Disposizioni sulla tutela delle acque dall’inquinamento e recepimento della direttiva 91/271/CEE concernente il trattamento delle acque reflue urbane, e della direttiva 91/676/CEE relativa alla protezione delle acque dall’inquinamento provocato dai nitrati provenienti da fonti agricole. Suppl. ord. G.U. del 29/5/1999.
Geovariances (2001) — ISATIS, Software manual, release 3.5.3. Geovariances Ecole des Mines de Paris, France.
Giuliano, G., Pellegrini, M., & Zavatti, A. (1995). (Eds.) Esempi di carte di vulnerabilità a scala regionale: La Pianura Padana, le province di Parma, Reggio Emilia e Modena. Studi sulla vulnerabilità degli Acquiferi. In Quaderni di tecniche di protezione ambientale — Protezione delle acque sotterranee (Vol.2). Bologna: Pitagora.
Goovaerts, P. (1997). Geostatistics for natural resources evaluation. New York: Oxford University Press.
Isaaks, E. H., & Srivastava, R. M. (1989). An introduction to applied geostatistics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Journel, A. G., & Huijbregts, Ch. J. (1978). Mining geostatistics. London: Academic.
Krajewski, S. A., & Gibbs, B. L. (1993). A variography primer — Special Publication n.8. Boulder, CO: Gibbs.
Lin, Y. P., Chang, T. K., Shih, C. W., & Tseng C. H. (2002). Factorial and indicator kriging methods using a geographic information system to delineate spatial variation and pollution sources of soil heavy metal. Environmental Geology, 42, 900–909.
Lin, Y. P., Chang, T. K., & Teng, T. P. (2001). Characterization of soil lead by comparing sequential Gaussian simulation, simulated annealing and kriging methods. Environmental Geology, 41, 189–199.
Matheron, G. (1970). The theory of regionalised variables and its application. In Les Cahiers du Centre de Morphol. Mathemat. de Fointainebleau (pp. 211). Paris: Ecole des Mines.
Ott, W. R. (1995). Environmental statistics and data analysis. Boca Raton, FL: CRC.
Paltrinieri, N., & Pellegrini, M. (1990). (Eds.) Comportamento idrodinamico dell’acquifero. Studi sulla vulnerabilità degli acquiferi, 2. In Quaderni di tecniche di protezione ambientale — Protezione delle acque sotterranee (pp. 9–14) Bologna: Pitagora.
Passarella, G., & Caputo, M. C. (2006). A methodology for space-time classification of groundwater quality. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 115(1–3), 95–117.
Passarella, G., Vurro, M., D’Agostino, V., Giuliano, G., & Barcelona, M. J. (2002). A probabilistic methodology to assess the risk of groundwater quality degradation. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 79, 57–74.
Raspa, G. (2000). Il ruolo della geostatistica nella modellizzazione ambientale. In Aspetti applicativi delle tecniche geostatistiche alle acque sotterranee — Quad. Ist. Ric. Acque 114. Roma: Irsa — CNR.
Rivoirad, J. (1994). Introduction to disjunctive kriging and non-linear geostatistics. Oxford: Clarendon.
Stein, A., Brouwer, J., & Bouma, J. (1997). Methods for comparing spatial variability patterns of milliet yield and soil data. Soil Science and Society American Journal, 61, 861–870.
Thompson, A. F. B., Ababou, R., & Gelhar, L. W. (1989). Implementation of three-dimensional turning bands random field generator. Water Resources Research, 25(10), 2227–2243.
Varnes, D. J. (1984). Commision on landslides and other mass-movements-IAEG. Landslide hazard zonation: A review of principles and practices. Paris: The UNESCO Press.
Vicari, L., & Zavatti, A. (1990). (Eds.) Idrochimica, Studi sulla Vulnerabilità degli Acquiferi, 2. In Quaderni di tecniche di protezione ambientale — Protezione delle acque sotterranee (pp. 27–72). Bologna: Pitagora.
Visentini, M. (1935). Ricerche sulle acque sotterranee nell’alta Pianura Modenese fra Secchia e Panaro. Roma: Min. LL.PP. Serv. Idrograf. del Po.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Barca, E., Passarella, G. Spatial evaluation of the risk of groundwater quality degradation. A comparison between disjunctive kriging and geostatistical simulation. Environ Monit Assess 137, 261–273 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-007-9758-3
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-007-9758-3