Abstract
The last decade has witnessed an increase in the application of historical records (historical and documentary) in developing a more complete understanding of high-magnitude flood frequency; but little consideration has been given to the additional information that documentary accounts contain, particularly relating to flood seasonality. This paper examines the methods and approaches available in long-term flood seasonality analysis and applies them to the River Ouse (Yorkshire) in Northern England since AD 1600. A detailed historical flood record is available for the City of York consisting of annual maxima flood levels since AD 1877, with documentary accounts prior to this. A detailed analysis of long-term flood seasonality requires confidence in the accuracy and completeness of flood records; as a result the augmented flood series are analysed using three strategies: firstly, considering all recorded floods since AD 1600; secondly, through detailed analysis of the more complete record since AD 1800; and finally, applying a threshold to focus on high-magnitude flood events since AD 1800. The results identify later winter flooding, particularly in the second half of the twentieth century, with a notable reduction in summer flood events at York during the twentieth century compared to previous centuries. Flood generating mechanisms vary little between the periods considered, with a general pattern of stability in the ratio of floods incorporating a snowmelt component.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Alexander LV, Tett SFB, Jónsson T (2005) Recent observed changes in severe storms over the United Kingdom and Iceland. Geophys Res Lett 32:L13704. doi:10.1029/2005GL022371
Archer DR (1992) Land of singing waters: rivers and great floods of Northumbria. Spredden Stocksfield Northumberland, 217 pp
Archer DR (2007) The use of flow variability analysis to assess the impact of land use change on the paired Plynlimon catchments. J Hydrol 347:487–496
Barriendos M, Rodrigo FS (2006) Study of historical flood events on Spanish rivers using documentary data. Hydrol Sci J 51:765–783
Benito G, Thorndycraft VR (2005) Palaeoflood hydrology and its role in applied hydrological sciences. J Hydrol 313:3–15
Benito G, Lang M, Barriendos M, Llasat MC, Francés F, Ouarda T, Thorndycraft VR, Enzel Y, Bardossy A, Coeur D, Bobée B (2004) Use of systematic, palaeoflood and historical data for the improvement of flood risk estimation: review of scientific methods. Nat Hazards 31:623–643
Black AR (1992) Seasonality of flooding in Scottish Rivers. Unpublished PhD thesis, University of St. Andrews
Black AR, Law F (2004) Development and utilization of a national web-based chronology of hydrological events. Hydrol Sci J 49:237–246
Black AR, Werritty A (1997) Seasonality of flooding: a case study of North Britain. J Hydrol 195:1–25
Böhm O, Wetzel K-F (2006) Flood history of the Danube tributaries Lech and Islar in the Alpine foreland of Germany. Hydrol Sci J 51:784–798
Böhm R, Jones PD, Hiebl J, Frank D, Brunetti M, Maugeri M (2010) The early instrumental warm-bias: a solution for long central European temperature series 1760–2007. Clim Chang 101:41–67
Bradley R, Jones P (1992) Climate since AD 1500. Routledge, London, 679 pp
Brázdil R, Glaser R, Pfister C, Dobrovolný P, Antoine J-M, Barriendos M, Camuffo D, Deutsch M, Enzi S, Guidoboni E, Kotyza O, Rodrigo FS (1999) Flood events of selected European rivers in the sixteenth century. Clim Chang 43:239–285
Brázdil R, Dobrovolný P, Elleder L, Kakos V, Kotyza O, Kvíitoó V, Macková J, Müller M, Štekl J, Tolasz R, Valášek H (2005) Historical and recent floods in the Czech Republic (in Czech). Masarykova Univerzita, Éeský hydrometeorologický ústav, Brno, 370 pp
Brázdil R, Kundzewicz ZW, Benito G (2006) Historical hydrology for studying flood risk in Europe. Hydrol Sci J 51:739–764
Brázdil R, Demarée GR, Deutsch M, Garnier E, Kiss A, Luterbacher J, Macdonald N, Rohr C, Dobrovolný P, Koláø P, Chromá K (2010) European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’. Theor Appl Climatol 100:163–189
Brooks CEP, Glasspoole J (1928) British floods and droughts. Ernest Benn London, p 157
Camuffo D, Cocheo C, Enzi S (2000) Seasonality on instability phenomena (hailstorms and thunderstorms) in Padova, Northern Italy, from archive and instrumental sources since AD 1300. Holocene 10:635–642
Climent-Soler D, Holman IP, Archer DR (2009) Application of flow variability analysis to identify impacts of agricultural land-use change on the River Axe, southwest England. Hydrol Res 40:380–393
Cunderlik JM, Ouarda TBMJ, Bobee B (2004) Determination of flood seasonality from hydrological records. Hydrol Sci J 49:511–526
Dawson AG, Hickey K, Holt T, Elliott L, Dawson S, Foster IDL, Wadhams P, Jonsdottir I, Wilkinson J, McKenna J, Davis NR, Smith DE (2002) Complex North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index signal of historic North Atlantic storm-track changes. Holocene 12:363–369
Dennis IA, Macklin MG, Coulthard TJ, Brewer PA (2003) The impact of the October–November 2000 floods on contaminant metal dispersal in the River Swale catchment, North Yorkshire, UK. Hydrol Process 17:1641–1657
Dobrovolný P, Moberg A, Brázdil R, Pfister C, Glaser R, Wilson R, van Engelen A, Limanówka D, Kiss A, Halíącková M, Macková J, Riemann D, Luterbacher J, Böhm R (2010) Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for Central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD 1500. Clim Change 101:69–107
Drake F (1736) Eboracum (the history and antiques of the city of York). Bowyer, London
European Communities (2000) The Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC)
Hanna E, Cappelen J, Allan R, Jónsson T, Le Blancq F, Lillington T, Hickey K (2008) New insights into North European and North Atlantic surface pressure variability, storminess, and related climatic change since 1830. J Climate 21:6739–6766
Glaser R, Stangl H (2003) Historical floods in the Dutch Rhine Delta. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 3:605–613
Glaser R, Riemann D, Schönbein J, Barriendos M, Brázdil R, Bertolin C, Camuffo D, Deutsch M, Dobrovolný P, van Engelen A, Enzi SJ, Halíèková M, Koenig S, Kotyza O, Limanówka D, Macková J, Sghedoni M, Martin B, Himmelsbach I (2010) The variability of European floods since AD 1500. Clim Change 101:235–256
Holden J, Adamson JK (2002) The Moor House long-term upland temperature record: new evidence of recent warming. Weather 57:19–127
Jacobeit J, Nonnenmacher M, Philipp A (2006) Atmospheric circulation dynamics linked with prominent discharge events in Central Europe. Hydrol Sci J 51:946–965
Jenkinson AF, Collinson FP (1977) An initial climatology of gales over the North Sea. Meteorological Office Bracknell
Kundzewicz ZW, Robson AJ (2004) Change detection in hydrological records—a review of the methodology. Hydrol Sci J 49:7–19
Lamb HH (1972) British Isles weather types and a register of daily sequence of circulation patterns, 1861–1971. Geophysical Memoir 116 HMSO London, 85 pp
Lamb HH (1995) Climate, history and the modern world, 2nd edn. Routledge, London
Lamb HH, Frydendahl K (1991) Historic storms of the North Sea, British Isles and Northwest Europe, Cambridge University Press, 204 pp
Longfield SA, Macklin MG (1999) The influence of recent environmental change on flooding and sediment fluxes in the Yorkshire Ouse basin. Hydrol Process 13:1051–1066
Macdonald N (2004) The application of historical flood information in reassessing flood frequency in Britain. Unpublished PhD thesis, University of Dundee
Macdonald N (2006) An underutilized resource: historical flood chronologies a valuable resource in determining periods of hydro-geomorphic change. In: Rowan JS, Duck RW, Werritty A (eds) IAHS/ICCE International Symposium on Sediment Dynamics and the Hydromorphology of Fluvial Systems. IAHS Publ. 306:120–127
Macdonald N, Black AR (2010) Reassessment of flood frequency using historical information for the River Ouse, York, UK. Hydrol Sci J 55 (7): 1152–1162
Macdonald N, Black AR, Werritty A, McEwen LJ (2006) Historical and pooled flood frequency analysis for the River Tay at Perth, Scotland. Area 38:34–46
Macdonald N, Phillips ID, Bale G (2010) Spatial and temporal variability of flood seasonality in Wales. Hydrol Process 24:1806–1820
Macklin MG, Rumsby BT (2007) Changing climate and extreme floods in the British uplands. Trans Inst British Geogr 32:169–186
Macklin MG, Taylor MP, Hudson-Edwards KA, Howard AJ (2000) Holocene environmental change in the Yorkshire Ouse basin and its influence on river dynamics and sediment fluxes to the coastal zone. In: Shennan I, Andrews J (eds) Holocene land–ocean interaction and environmental change around the North Sea, vol 166. Geological Society London Special Publications, pp 87–96
Marsh TJ, Hannaford J (2007) The summer 2007 floods in England and Wales—a hydrological appraisal. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford, p 32
Marsh TJ, Lees ML (2003) Hydrological data UK: hydrometric register and statistics 1996–2000. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Wallingford Oxon
McEwen LJ (1987) Sources for establishing a historic flood chronology (pre-1940) within Scottish river catchments. Scott Geogr Mag 103:132–140
McEwen LJ (2006) Flood seasonality and generating conditions in the Tay catchment, Scotland from 1200 to present. Area 38:47–64
McEwen LJ, Werritty A (2007) ‘The Muckle Spate of 1829’: the physical and societal impact of a catastrophic flood on the River Findhorn, Scottish Highlands. Trans Inst British Geogr 32:66–89
Meteorological Office (2002) UK Annual Rainfall web-site, Accessed 2002. http://www.met-office.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/images/RainAnnual6190.gif
Mudelsee M, Börngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grünewald U (2003) No upward trends in the occurrence of extreme floods in central Europe. Nature 425:166–169
Mudelsee M, Börngen M, Tetzlaff G, Grünewald U (2004). Extreme floods in central Europe over the past 500 years: Role of cyclone pathway “Zugstrasse Vb”. J Geophys Res 109:D23101
O’Connell PE, Beven KJ, Carney JN, Clements RO, Ewen J, Fowler H, Harris GL, Hollis J, Morris J, O’Donnell GM, Packman JC, Parkin A, Quinn PF, Rose SC, Shepherd M, Tellier S (2005) Review of impacts of rural land use and management on flood generation: Impact study report. DEFRA, R& D Technical Report FD2114/TR Defra Flood Management Division London, 142 pp
Parent E, Bernier J (2003) Bayesian POT modelling for historical data. J Hydrol 274:95–108
Petts GE, Morales-Chaves Y, Sadler JP (2006) Linking hydrology and biology to assess the water needs of river ecosystems. Hydrol Process 20:2247–2251
Rocque J (1750) A plan of the City of York. In: Murray H (1997) Scarborough, York and Leeds: the town plans o John Cossins 1697–1743. Yorkshire Architectural and York Archaeological Society Ebor Press, York, p 53
Rumsby BT, Macklin MG (1994) Channel and floodplain response to recent abrupt climate change: the Tyne basin, Northern England. Earth Surf Processes Landf 19:499–515
Schroeder H (1851) The Annals of Yorkshire from the earliest period to the present time, vol I. George Crosby and Co. Leeds, p 181
Starkel L (2002) Change in the frequency of extreme events as the indicator of climatic change in the Holocene (in fluvial systems). Quat Int 91:25–32
Stedinger JR, Cohn TA (1986) Flood frequency analysis with historical and palaeoflood information. Water Resour Res 22:785–793
Symons GR (1866) Symons’s monthly meteorological magazine. Edward Stanford London, pp 70–71
Symons GR (1893) British Rainfall 1892. Edward Stanford London, pp 117–119
Wheater H, Evans E (2009) Land use, water management and future flood risk. Land Use Policy 26:S251–S264
Widderington T (1662) Anaectra Eboracensia (some remains of the ancient city of York) Edited by Caine C (Rev.) 1897. CJ Clark London, p 116
Williams HB (1957) Flooding Characteristics of the River Swale. PhD Thesis Department of Civil Engineering University of Leeds, Leeds England
Yorkshire Water Authority (1980) Land Drainage Survey Part A, Appendix 2
Newspapers
London Gazette (1689) The Leeds Mercury, 24 October 1689; 2500:2
The Examiner (1831) The state of the country. The Examiner, London England, 20 February 1831; 1203:124–125
The Leeds Mercury (1888) The recent floods in Swaledale and Arkengarthdale. The Leeds Mercury, Leeds England, 7 August 1888; 15705:6
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Macdonald, N. Trends in flood seasonality of the River Ouse (Northern England) from archive and instrumental sources since AD 1600. Climatic Change 110, 901–923 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0117-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0117-6