Abstract
A regional air quality model was used to quantify the effect of temperature, humidity, mixing depth, and background concentrations on ozone (O3) and airborne particulate matter during three air quality episodes in California. Increasing temperature with no change in absolute humidity promoted the formation of O3 by +2 to +9 ppb K−1 through increased reaction rates. Increasing temperature with no change in relative humidity increased predicted O3 concentrations by +2 to +15 ppb K−1 through enhanced production of hydroxyl radical combined with increased reaction rates. Increasing mixing depth promoted the formation of O3 in regions with an over-abundance of fresh NO emissions (such as central Los Angeles) by providing extra dilution. Increasing temperature with no change in absolute humidity reduced particle water content and promoted the evaporation of ammonium nitrate at a rate of −3 to −7 μg m−3 K−1. Increasing temperature with no change in relative humidity maintained particle water content and moderated ammonium nitrate evaporation rates to a maximum value of −3 μg m−3 K−1 during warmer episodes and increased ammonium nitrate condensation by +1.5 μg m−3 K −1 during colder episodes. Increasing mixing depth reduced the concentration of primary particulate matter but increased the formation of secondary particulate matter in regions with an over-abundance of fresh NO emissions. O3 transported into California from upwind areas enhanced the formation of particulate nitrate by promoting the formation of N2O5 and HNO3 at night. A 30 ppb increase in background O3 concentrations (roughly doubling current levels) increased maximum PM2.5 concentrations by +7 to +16 μg m−3 even when temperature was simultaneously increased by +5 K with no change in absolute humidity (most unfavorable conditions for nitrate formation).
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Explore related subjects
Discover the latest articles, news and stories from top researchers in related subjects.Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Aw J, Kleeman MJ (2003) Evaluating the first-order effect of intraannual temperature variability on urban air pollution. J Geophys Res – Atmospheres 108(D12)4365
Carter WPL (1990) A detailed mechanism for the gas-phase atmospheric reactions of organic-compounds. Atmos Environ, A Gen Topics 24(3):481–518
Duffy PB, Arritt RW, Coquard J, Gutowski W, Han J, Iorio J, Kim J, Leung LR, Roads J, Zeledon E (2006) Simulations of present and future climates in the western United States with four nested regional climate models. J Climate 19(6):873–895
Fraser MP, Kleeman MJ, Schauer JJ, Cass GR (2000) Modeling the atmospheric concentrations of individual gas-phase and particle-phase organic compounds. Environ Sci Technol 34(7):1302–1312
Fredenslund A, Gmehling J, Rasmussen P (1977) Vapor–liquid equilibrium using UNIFAC. Elsevier, New York
Griffin RJ, Dabdub D, Seinfeld JH (2002a) Secondary organic aerosol – 1. Atmospheric chemical mechanism for production of molecular constituents. J Geophys Res – Atmospheres 107(D17)
Griffin RJ, Dabdub D, Kleeman MJ, Fraser MP, Cass GR, Seinfeld JH (2002b) Secondary organic aerosol 3. Urban/regional scale model of size- and composition-resolved aerosols. J Geophys Res – Atmospheres 107(D17):AAC5/1–AAC5/14
Griffin RJ, Dabdub D, Seinfeld JH (2005) Development and initial evaluation of a dynamic species-resolved model for gas phase chemistry and size-resolved gas/particle partitioning associated with secondary organic aerosol formation. J Geophys Res 110(D5)
Held T, Ying Q, Kaduwela A, Kleeman M (2004) Modeling particulate matter in the San Joaquin Valley with a source-oriented externally mixed three-dimensional photochemical grid model. Atmos Environ Part, A Gen Topics 38(22):3689–3711
Held AE, Ying Q, Kleeman MJ, Schauer JJ, Fraser MP (2005) A comparison of the UCD/CIT air quality model and the CMB source-receptor model for primary airborne particulate matter. Atmos Environ Part, A Gen Topics 39:2281–2297
Hogrefe C, Lynn B, Civerolo K, Ku JY, Rosenthal J, Rosenzweig C, Goldberg R, Gaffin S, Knowlton K, Kinney PL (2004) Simulating changes in regional air pollution over the eastern United States due to changes in global and regional climate and emissions. J Geophys Res 109(D22)
Houghton JT et al. (ed) 2001 Climate change: the scientific basis. Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Jacobson MZ (1999) Effects of soil moisture on temperatures, winds, and pollutant concentrations in Los Angeles. J Appl Meteorol 38(5):607–616
Kim BM, Teffera S, Zeldin MD (2000) Characterization of PM2.5 and PM10 in the South Coast Air Basin of southern California: Part 1 – Spatial variations. J Air Waste Manage Assoc 50(12):2034–2044
Kleeman MJ, Cass GR (2001) A 3D Eulerian source-oriented model for an externally mixed aerosol. Environ Sci Technol 35(24):4834–4848
Kleeman MJ, Cass GR, Eldering A (1997) Modeling the airborne particle complex as a source-oriented external mixture. J Geophys Res – Atmospheres 102(Sep 20):21355–21372
Kleeman MJ, Hughes LS, Allen JO, Cass GR (1999) Source contributions to the size and composition distribution of atmospheric particles: Southern California in September 1996. Environ Sci Technol 33(23):4331–4341
Kleeman MJ, Ying Q, Kaduwela A (2005) Control strategies for the reduction of airborne particulate nitrate in California’s San Joaquin Valley. Atmos Environ 39(29):5325–5341
Klonecki A, Levy H (1997) Tropospheric chemical ozone tendencies in CO-CH4-NOy-H2O system: their sensitivity to variations in environmental parameters and their application to a global chemistry transport model study. J Geophys Res 102(D17):21221–21237
Kusik CL, Meissner HP (1978) Electrolyte activity coefficients in inorganic processing. Fund Asp Hydrometallurgical Processes AIChE Symposium Series 74:14–20
Langner J, Bergstrom R, Foltescu V (2005) Impact of climate change on surface ozone and deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe. Atmos Environ 39(6):1129–1141
Leung LR, Qian Y, Bian XD, Washington WM, Han JG, Roads JO (2004) Mid-century ensemble regional climate change scenarios for the western United States. Clim Change 62(1–3):75–113
Liao H, Chen WT, Seinfeld JH (2006) Role of climate change in global predictions of future topospheric ozone and aerosols. J Geophys Res 111:D12304
Mickley LJ, Jacob DJ, Field BD, Rind D (2004) Effects of future climate change on regional air pollution episodes in the United States. Geophys Res Lett 31(24):L24103
Murazaki K, Hess P (2006) How does climate change contribute to surface ozone change over the United States? J Geophys Res 111(D5)
Mysliwiec MJ, Kleeman MJ (2002) Source apportionment of secondary airborne particulate matter in a polluted atmosphere. Environ Sci Technol 36(24):5376–5384
Odum JR, Hoffmann T, Bowman F, Collins D, Flagan RC, Seinfeld JH (1996) Gas/particle partitioning and secondary organic aerosol yields. Environ Sci Technol 30(8):2580–2585
Pandis SN, Harley RA, Cass GR, Seinfeld JH (1992) Secondary organic aerosol formation and transport. Atmos Environ, A Gen Topics 26(13):2269–2282
Prather M, Gauss M, Berntsen T, Isaksen I, Sundet J, Bey I, Brasseur G, Dentener F, Derwent R, Stevenson D, Grenfell L, Hauglustaine D, Horowitz L, Jacob D, Mickley L, Lawrence M, von Kuhlmann R, Muller JF, Pitari G, Rogers H, Johnson M, Pyle J, Law K, van Weele M, Wild O (2003) Fresh air in the 21st century? Geophys Res Lett 30(2)
Pun BK, Griffin RJ, Seigneur C, Seinfeld JH (2002) Secondary organic aerosol – 2. Thermodynamic model for gas/particle partitioning of molecular constituents. J Geophys Res – Atmospheres 107(D17)
Sillman S, Samson FJ (1995) Impact of temperature on oxidant photochemistry in urban, polluted rural and remote environments. J Geophys Res 100(D6):11497–11508
VanCuren RA, Cahill TA (2002) Asian aerosols in North America: frequency and concentration of fine dust. J Geophys Res 107(D24)
Vingarzan R (2004) A review of surface ozone background levels and trends. Atmos Environ 38(21):3431–3442
Ying Q, Kleeman MJ (2006) Source contributions to the regional distribution of secondary particulate matter in California. Atmos Environ 40(4):736–752
Ying Q, Kleeman M (2007) Verification of a source-oriented external mixture air quality model during a severe photochemical smog event. Atmos Environ, A Gen Topics 41:1521–1538
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Kleeman, M.J. A preliminary assessment of the sensitivity of air quality in California to global change. Climatic Change 87 (Suppl 1), 273–292 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9351-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9351-3