Abstract
Global climate change and its regional manifestation will result in significant impacts in the European North. However, in order to determine the consequences of such impacts, a holistic, integrated assessment is needed. This paper sets the stage for the remainder of this volume by describing an attempt to derive such an assessment for the Barents Sea Region through the EU-funded BALANCE project. The paper explains some of the major methodologies employed in the study. It also provides insight into major results obtained and attempts to answer a number of overarching questions. It will be shown that climate change does present a significant threat to environmental and societal integrity in the study region. However, it will also be shown that stakeholders regard other drivers of future changes (economical, political developments) at least as equally important for their personal lives.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
ACIA (2005) Arctic climate impact assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 1042
Berlin K (1999) The use of WebGIS in the EU-project BASIS (in German). In: Strobl J, Blaschke T (eds) Proceedings of Angewandte Geographische Informationsverarbeitung XI, Salzburg
Berlin K, Piepel C (1999) Development of extension functionalities for the ArcView Internet Map Server data administration (in German). In: Proceedings of 14th ESRI European User Conference 1999. ESRI Geoinformatik GmbH, Kranzberg
Blyth E, Clark D, Finch J, Callaghan T, Wolf A, Dankers R, Rees G, Danks F, Goettel H, Jacob D, Zöckler C Modelling coarse-scale snow patterns to assess snow-impacts on flora and fauna in Northern Europe. Submitted to Polar Research
Chapman WL, Walsh JE (1993) Recent variations of sea ice and air temperature in high latitudes. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 74(1):33–47
Cohen SJ (ed) (1997) Mackenzie Basin Impact Study: final report, Atmospheric Environment Service. Environment Canada, Downsview
Cornellisen JHC, Callaghan TV, Alatalo JM, Hartley AE, Hik DS, Hobbie SE, Press MC, Robinson CH, Shaver GR, Phoenix GR, Gwynn Jones D, Jonasson S, Sonesson M, Chapin III FS, Molau U, Lee JA (2001) Global change and arctic ecosystems: is lichen decline a function of increases in vascular plant biomass? J Ecol 89:984–994
Giorgi F, Hewitson B, Christensen J, Hulme M, Storch HV, Whetton P, Jones R, Mearns L, Fu C (2001) Regional climate information – evaluation and projections. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) IPCC, climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. University Press, Cambridge
Gjøsæter H, Dalpadado P, Hassel A (2002) Growth of Barents Sea capelin (Mallotus villosus Müller) in relation to zooplankton abundance. ICES J Mar Sci 59:959–967
Harding RJ, Lloyd CR (1998) Fluxes of water and energy at three high latitude tundra sites in Svalbard. Nord Hydrol 29:267–284
Holland MM, Bitz CM (2003) Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models. Clim Dyn 21:221–232
Houghton JJ, Meiro Filho LG, Callander BA, Harris N, Kattenberg A, Maskell K (eds) (1996) Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Contribution of Working Group I to the second assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. University Press, Cambridge
Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) (2001) IPPC, climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. University Press, Cambridge
Jacob D (2001) A note to the simulation of annual and inter-annual variability of water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Meteorol Atmos Phys 77(1–4):61–73
Jacob D, Podzun R (1997) Sensitivity studies with the regional climate model REMO. Meteorol Atmos Phys 63:119–129
Kozlov MV, Barcan VS (2000) Environmental contamination in the central part of the Kola Peninsula: history, documentation, and perception. Ambio 29:512–517
Kozlov MV, Haukioja E, Bakhtiarov AV, Stroganov DN, Zimina SN (2000) Root vs canopy uptake of heavy metals by birch in an industrially polluted area: contrasting behaviour of nickel and copper. Environ Pollut 107:413–420
Kozlov MV, Zvereva EL, Niemelä P (2001) Shoot fluctuating asymmetry: a new and objective stress index in Norway spruce (Picea abies). Can J For Res 31:1289–1291
Kuhry P (1994) Proceedings of the Working Group on Global Change meeting in Stockholm, Sweden (October 1994). IASC Global Change Programme Office at the Arctic Centre, Rovaniemi
Kuhry P, Lange MA (1997) Assessing the consequences of global changes for the Barents region: the Barents Sea Impact Study (BASIS). In: Cohen SJ (ed) Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) final report, Atmospheric Environment Services. Environment Canada, Downsview
Lange MA (1999) Global climate models and climate impact research: two different worlds? In: Cattle H (ed) Proceedings of Workshop on Arctic Regional Climate Modelling, Bracknell, UK, 1999, WMO, World Climate Research Programmes, C2.1–C2.6
Lange MA (2000a) The challenges of integrated regional climate impact studies. North 11(1):12–14
Lange MA (2000b) Integrated global change impact assessments. In: Nuttal M, Callaghan TV (eds) The Arctic: environment, people, policy. Harwood Academic, Amsterdam
Lange MA, BASIS consortium (2003) The Barents Sea Impact Study (BASIS): methodology and first results. Cont Shelf Res 23:1673–1694
Lange MA, Bartling B, Grosfeld K (eds) (1999) Global changes and the Barents Sea Region: proceedings of the first International BASIS Research Conference, St. Petersburg, Russia, February 22–25, 1998, University of Münster, Germany
Layton IG (2000) Trends and prospects within the forest sector in Norrbotten and the Arkhangelsk Oblast. In: Axensten P, Weissglas G (eds) Nuclear risks, environment and development co-operation in the north of Europe, proceedings of the Apatity conference, 19–23 June 1999, CERUM Northern Studies, Umeå, Sweden, pp 129–138
Layton IG, Pashkevich A (2000) Forest-Sector Case Studies - comparisons between the Northern Dvina and the Pite river basins (GERUM, Geographical Reports Umeå). Department of Social and Economic Geography, Umeå University, Umeå
Layton IG, Wiberg U (2000) Global change and the northern forest industry. North 11(1):15–18
Mariussen Å, Heen K (1999) Dependency, uncertainty and climate change: the case of fishing. In: Lange MA, Bartling B, Grosfeld K (eds) Proceedings of the first International BASIS Research Conference, St. Petersburg, Russia, February 22–25, 1998, Institute for Geophysics, University of Münster, Germany
Nakicenovic N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, Gaffin S, Gregory K, Grübler A, Jung TY, Kram T, La Rovere EL, Michaelis L, Mori S, Morita T, Pepper W, Pitcher H, Price L, Raihi K, Roehrl A, Rogner H-H, Sankovski A, Schlesinger ME, Shukla P, Smith S, Swart R, Van Rooijen S, Viktor N, Dadi Z (2000) IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Polyakov IV, Alekseev GV, Bekryaev RV, Bhatt U, Colony RL, Johnson MA, Karklin VP, Makshtas AP, Walsh D, Yulin AV (2002) Observationally based assessment of polar amplification of global warming. Geophys Res Lett 29(18):1878, DOI 10.1029/2001GL011111
Slagstad D, McClimans TA (2005) Modeling the ecosystem dynamics of the Barents sea including the marginal ice zone: I. Physical and chemical oceanography. J Mar Syst 58(1–2):1–18
Slagstad D, Wassmann P (1997) Climatic change and carbon flux in the Barents Sea: 3-D simulations of ice-distribution, primary production and vertical export of particulate organic carbon. Mem Natl Inst Polar Res 51:119–141
Slagstad D, Downing K, Carlotti F, Hirche H-J (1999) Modelling the carbon export and air-sea flux of CO2 in the Greenland Sea. Deep-Sea Res Part 2 Top Stud Oceanogr 46:1511–1530
Smit B, Pilifosova O (2001) Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity. In: McCarthy JJ, Canziani OF, Leary NA, Docken DJ, Whitre KS (eds) Climate change 2001: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
Vitebsky P (1999) The role of the social sciences in environmental research in the Barents region. In Lange MA, Bartling B, Grosfeld K (eds) Proceedings of the first International BASIS Research Conference, St. Petersburg, Russia, February 22–25, 1998, Institute for Geophysics, University of Münster, Germany
Wassmann P, Ratkova TN, Andreassen I, Vernet M, Pedersen G, Rey F (1999) Spring bloom development in the marginal ice zone and the central Barents Sea. Mar Ecol 20(3/4):321–346
Weller G, Anderson PA (eds) (1998) Implications of global change in Alaska and the Bering Sea Region. Proceedings of a workshop, June 1997. Center for Global Change and Arctic System Research, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Weller G, Lange MA (eds) (1999) Impacts of global climate change in the arctic regions - report from a workshop on the impacts of global change. International Arctic Science Committee, Oslo
Wiberg U (1999) Socio-economic aspects of forestry and climate change. In: Lange MA, Bartling B, Grosfeld K (eds) Proceedings of the first International BASIS Research Conference, St. Petersburg, Russia, February 22–25, 1998, Institute for Geophysics, University of Münster, Germany
Zvereva EL, Kozlov MV (2000) Bud removal alleviates negative effects of pollution on quality of Salix borealis for an insect herbivore. Basic Appl Ecol 1:171–176
Zvereva EL, Kozlov MV (2001) Effects of pollution induced habitat disturbance on willow response to simulated herbivory. J Ecol 89:21–30
References to papers from this volume
Bernard L, Ostländer N (2008) Assessment of climate change vulnerability in the Arctic using geoinformation services in spatial data infrastructure. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9346-0
Dankers R, Middelkoop H (2008) River discharge and freshwater runoff to the Barents Sea under present and future climate conditions. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9349-x
Eide A (2008) An integrated study of possible economic effects of global warming on the Barents Sea cod fisheries. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9338-0
Ellingsen IH, Dalpadado P, Slagstad D, Loeng H (2008) Impact of present variability and future climatic change on the biological production in the Barents Sea. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9369-6
Göttel H, Alexander J, Keup-Thiel E, Rechid D, Hagemann S, Blome T, Wolf A, Jacob D (2008) Influence of changed vegetation fields on regional climate simulations in the Barents Sea Region. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9341-5
Huse G, Ellingsen I (2008) Capelin migrations and climate change – a modelling analysis. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9347-z
Keskitalo C (2008) Vulnerability and adaptive capacity in forestry in northern Europe: the case of Sweden. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9337-1
Kozlov MV (2008) Losses of birch foliage due to insect herbivory along geographical gradients in Europe: a climate driven pattern? DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9348-y
Lundmark, L Pashkevich A, Jansson B, Wiberg U (2008) Effects of climate change and extreme events on forest communities in the European north. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9343-3
Rees WG, Stammler FM, Danks FS, Vitebsky P (2008) Vulnerability of European reindeer husbandry to global change. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9345-1
Roderfeld H, Blyth E, Dankers R, Ellingsen I, Huse G, Slagstad D, Wolf A, Lange M (2008) Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea region. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9350-4
Wolf A, Callaghan TV, Larson K (2008a) Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9342-4
Wolf A, Blyth E, Harding R, Jacob D, Keup-Thiel E, Göttel H, Callaghan TV (2008b) Sensitivity of an ecosystem model to hydrology and temperature. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9339-z
Zöckler C, Miles L, Fish L, Wolf A, Rees G, Danks F (2008) Potential impact of climate change and reindeer density on tundra indicator species in the Barents Sea Region. DOI 10.1007/s10584-007-9344-2
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Lange, M.A. Assessing climate change impacts in the European north. Climatic Change 87, 7–34 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9336-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9336-2