Abstract
Variability in precipitation at scales from 1 to 10 days was investigated with the use of the time series measured at Prague-Sporilov (the Czech Republic) between 1994 and 2001. Variability was detected by the method of absolute difference in precipitation between two adjacent discrete time periods. The results indicated a general increase in precipitation variability at all investigated scales within the 8-yr observational period. The variability patterns also showed quasi-seasonal variations. The summer wetter season proved to be the most variable. The analysis was accomplished by the investigations of precipitation variability at a monthly scale based on a century-long historical time record. On a longer time perspective, precipitation variability exhibits a general increase interrupted by quasi-decadal oscillations. The range of quasi-decadal variability has become more pronounced after about 1950, the fact that hints the possibility of further intensification of the hydrologic cycle. An obtained significant correlation between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) activity and precipitation variability implies that the NAO may account for a large fraction of precipitation variability. Higher NAO-index values tend to be associated with low variability. The variability investigations may have a certain implication for climate change assessments both at the local scales as well as associated with the build-up of greenhouse gases.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Bodri, L.: 2004, ‘Tendencies in variability of gridded temperature and precipitation in Hungary (during the period of instrumental record)’, IDÕJÁRÁS (in press).
Bodri, L. and Cermak, V.: 2000, ‘Prediction of extreme precipitation using a neural network: Application to summer flood occurrence in Moravia’, Adv. Eng. Soft. 31, 311–321.
Bodri, L. and Cermak, V.: 2001, ‘Neural network prediction of monthly precipitation: Application to summer flood occurrence in two regions of Central Europe’, Stud geoph et geod 45, 155–167.
Bodri, L. and Cermak, V.: 2003, ‘High frequency variability in recent climate and the North Atlantic Oscillation’, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 74, 33–40.
Bornstein, R. and LeRoy, M.: 1990, ‘Urban barrier effects on convective and frontal thunderstorms. Extended Abstracts, Fourth Conference on mesoscale processes, Boulder, CO’, Am. Meteor. Soc. 120–121.
Bornstein, R. and Lin, Q.: 2000, ‘Urban heat islands and summertime convective thunderstorms in Atlanta: Three case studies’, Atmos. Environ. 34, 507–516.
Bradley, R. S., Diaz, H. F., Eischeid, J. K., Jones, P. D., Kelly, P. M., and Goodess, C. M.: 1987, ‘Precipitation fluctuations over Northern Hemisphere land areas since the mid-19th century’, Science 237, 171–177.
Cermak, V., Safanda, J., Kresl, M., Dedecek, P., and Bodri, L.: 2000, ‘Recent climate warming: Surface air temperature series and geothermal evidence’, Studia geoph et geod 44, 430–441.
Changnon, S. A. (ed.): 1981, METROMEX: A Review and Summary. Meteor Monogr No 40, American Meteoriological Society, pp. 181.
Colombo, A. F., Etkin, D., and Karney, B. W.: 1999, ‘Climate variability and frequency of extreme temperature events for nine sites across Canada: Implications for power usage’, J. Clim. 12, 2490–2502.
Daly, J. T.: 2000, ‘Hot-lanta ... lives up to its name’, Univ. Georgia. Res. Report 297, 7–12.
Datsenko, N. M., Shabalova, M. V., and Sonechkin, D. M.: 2001, ‘Seasonality of multidecadal and centennial variability in European temperatures: The wavelet approach’, J. Geophys. Res. 106, 12449–12461.
Dixon, P. G. and Mote, T. L.: 2003, ‘Patterns and causes of Atlanta's urban heat island-initiated precipitation’, J. Appl. Meteorol. 42, 1273–1284.
Haggard, W. H., Bilton, T. H., and Crutcher, H. L.: 1973, ‘Maximum rainfall from tropical cyclone systems which cross the Appalachians’, J. Appl. Meteor. 12, 50–61.
Heino, R., Brázdil, R., Forland, E., Tuomenvirta, H., Alexandersson, H., Beniston, M., Pfister, C., Rebetez, M., Rosenhagen, G., Rösner, S., and Wibig, J.: 1999, ‘Progress in the study of climatic extremes in Northern and Central Europe’, Clim. Change 42, 151–181.
Hennessy, K. J. and Pittock, A. B.: 1995, ‘Greenhouse warming and threshold temperature events in Victoria, Australia’, Int. J. Climatol. 15, 591–612.
Houghton, J. T., Callander, B. A., and Varney, S. K. (eds.): 1992, Climate Change 1992. The Supplementary Report to Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. Report prepared for the IPCC Working Group I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 200.
Houghton, J. T., Meira Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.): 1996, ‘Climate Change 1995’, The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 572.
Hulme, M.: 1992, ‘A 1951–80 global land precipitation climatology for the evaluation of General Circulation Models’, Clim. Dyn. 7, 57–72.
Hulme, M., Osborn, T. J., and Johns, T. C.: 1998, ‘Precipitation sensitivity to global warming. Comparison to observations with HadCM2 simulations’, Geophys. Res. Letts. 25, 3379–3382.
Hurrell, J. W.: 1995, ‘Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional temperatures and precipitation’, Science 269, 676–679.
Hurrell, J. W. and van Loon, H.: 1997, ‘Decadal variations in climate associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation’, Clim. Change 36, 301–326.
Jones, P. D., Jonsson, T., and Wheeler, D.: 1997, ‘Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and south-west Iceland’, Int. J. Climatol. 17, 1433–1450.
Kakos, V.: 1983, ‘Hydrometeorologicky rozbor povodni na Vltave v Praze za obdobni 1873 az 1982’, Meteorologicke zprávy 36, 171–181 (in Czech).
Kakos, V.: 1997, ‘Hydrometeorologicka analyza historicke povodne v roce 1897 ve vztahu ke katastrofalnim zaplavam v Cechach na zacatku zari 1890 a na Morave v cervenci 1997’, Meteorologicke zprávy 50, 191–196 (in Czech).
Kalvová, J. and Nemešová, I.: 1997, ‘Projections of climate change for the Czech Republic’, Clim. Change 36, 41–64.
Karl, T. R., Knight, R. W., and Plummer, N.: 1995, ‘Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the twentieth century’, Nature 377, 217–220.
Karl, T. R. and Knight, R. W.: 1998, ‘Secular trends of precipitation amount, frequency, and intensity in the United States’, Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 79, 231–241.
Karl, T. R., Nicholls, N., and Ghazi, A.: 1999, ‘CLIVAR/GCOS/WMO workshop on indices and indicators for climate extremes. Workshop summary’, Clim Change 42, 3–7.
Kattenberg, A., Giorgi, F., Grassl, H., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Stouffer, R. J., Tokioka, T., Weaver, A. J., and Wigley, T. M. L.: 1996, ‘Climate models: Projections of future climate’, in Houghton, J. T., MeiroFilho, L. G., Callendar, B. A., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.), Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 285–357.
Katz, R. W. and Brown, B. G.: 1992, ‘Extreme events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages’, Clim Change 21, 289–302.
Kelly, P. M. and Jones, P. D.: 1999, ‘Spatial patterns of variability in the global surface air temperature data set’, J. Geophys. Res. 104, 24, 237–24,256.
Kendall, M. G. and Stuart, A.: 1967, ‘The Advanced Theory of Statistics’, Vol. 2. Inference and Relationship, Griffin, London, pp. 690.
Kyselý, J.: 2002, ‘Temporal fluctuations in heat waves at Prague-Klementinum, the Czech Republic, from 1901–97, and their relationships to atmospheric circulation’, Int. J. Climatol. 22, 33–50.
Lo, C. P., Quattrochi, D. A., and Luvall, J. C.: 1997, ‘Application of high-resolution thermal infrared remote sensing and GIS to assess the urban heat island effect’, Int. J. Remote. Sens. 18, 287–304.
McGuffie, K., Henderson-Sellers, A., Holbrook, N., Kothavala, Z., Balachova, O., and Hoekstra, J.: 1999, ‘Assessing simulations of daily temperatures and precipitation variability with global climate models for present and enhanced greenhouse climates’, Int. J. Climatol. 19, 1–26.
Mearns, L. O., Giorgi, F., McDaniel, L., and Shields, C.: 1995, ‘Analysis of daily variability of precipitation in a nested regional climate model: Comparison with observations and doubled CO2 results’, Global Planet Change 10, 55–78.
Meskó, A.: 1984, ‘Digital Filtering’, Acad Kiadó, Budapest, pp. 636.
Mitchell, J. F. B. and Jones, T. C.: 1997, ‘On the modification of global warming by sulfate aerosols’, J. Clim. 10, 245–267.
Moberg, A., Jones, P. D., Barriendos, M., Bergström, H., Camuffo, D., Cocheo, C., Davies, T. D., Demarée, C., Martin-Vide, J., Mangeri, M., Rodriguez, R., and Verhoeve, T.: 2000, ‘Day-to-day temperature variability trends in 160- to 275-year-long European instrumental records’, J. Geophys. Res. 105, 22,849–22,868.
Morris, C. J. G., Simmonds, I., and Plummer, N.: 2001, ‘Quantification of the influences of wind and cloud on the nocturnal urban heat island of a large city’, J. Appl. Meteor. 40, 169–182.
Mullen, L.: 1999, ‘Welcome to the thunder dome: Atlanta's urban heat alters weather patterns’, NASA Science News. Available online at http://science.nasa.gov/newhome/headlines/essd26apr99_l.htm
New, M. G., Hulme, M., and Jones, P. D.: 1999, ‘Representing 20th century space-time climate variability I: Development of a 1961–1990 mean monthly terrestrial climatology’, J. Clim. 12, 829–856.
New, M., Todd, M., Hulme, M., and Jones, P.: 2001, ‘Precipitation measurements and trends in the twentieth century’, Int. J. Clim. 21, 1899–1922.
Nicholls, N.: 2001, ‘The insignificance of significance testing’, Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 82, 981–986.
Nicholls, N., Gruza, G. V., Jouzel, J., Karl, T. R., Ogallo, L. A., and Parker, D. E.: 1996, ‘Observed climate variability and change’, in Houghton, J. T., MeiroFilho, L. G., Callendar, B. A., Kattenberg, A., and Maskell, K. (eds.), Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 133–192.
Ohashi, Y. and Kida, H.: 2002, ‘Local circulations developed in the vicinity of both coastal and inland urban areas: A numerical study with a mesoscale atmospheric mode’, J. Appl. Meteorol. 41, 30–45.
Rebetez, M.: 1996, ‘Public expectation as an element of human perception of climate change’, Clim. Change 32, 495–509.
Rebetez, M.: 2001, ‘Changes in daily and nightly day-to-day temperature variability during the twentieth century for two stations in Switzerland’, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 69, 13–21.
Rodwell, M. J., Rowell, D. P., and Folland, C. K.: 1999, ‘Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climate’, Nature 398, 320–323.
Ropelewski, C. F., Janowiak, J. E., and Halpert, M. S.: 1985, ‘The analysis and display of real time surface climate data’, Montly Weather Rev. 113, 1101–1106.
Schönwiese, C. D., Grieser, J., and Trömel, S.: 2003, ‘Secular change of extreme monthly precipitation in Europe’, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 75, 245–250.
Shabalova, M. V. and Weber, S. L.: 1998, ‘Seasonality of low-frequency variability in early-instrumental European temperatures’, Geophys. Res. Lett. 25, 3858–3862.
Shabalova, M. V. and Van Engelen, A. F. V.: 2003, ‘Evaluation of a reconstruction of winter and summer temperatures in the Low Countries, AD 764-1998’, Clim. Change 58, 219–242.
Shepherd, J. M., Pierse, H., and Negr, A. J.: 2002, ‘Rainfall modification by major urban areas: Observations from spaceborne rain radar on the TRMM satellite’, J. Appl. Meteorol. 41, 689–701.
Thompson, D. W. J. and Wallace, J. M.: 2000, ‘Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability’, J. Clim. 13, 1000–1016.
Thompson, D. W. J., Wallace, J. M., and Hegerl, G. C.: 2000, ‘Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends’, J. Clim. 13, 1018–1036.
Wetherald, R. T. and Manabe, S.: 2002, ‘Simulation of hydrologic changes associated with global warming’, J. Geophys. Res. 107, ACL7.1–15 (doi:10.1029/2001JD001195).
Wilks, D. S. and Riha, S. J.: 1996, ‘High-frequency climatic variability and crop yields’, Clim. Change 32, 231–235.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Bodri, L., Cermak, V. & Kresl, M. Trends in Precipitation Variability: Prague (The Czech Republic). Climatic Change 72, 151–170 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5370-0
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5370-0