Introduction

Exercise intensity domains have been defined based upon their distinct metabolic profiles (Gaesser and Poole 1996). The moderate intensity domain consists of work rates at or below the lactate threshold (LT). The heavy domain includes work rates above LT, but at or below critical power (CP). The severe intensity domain encompasses work rates above CP in which maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) can be elicited. In fact, in the severe domain VO2 continues to increase over time until VO2max is attained (Poole et al. 1988; Hill et al. 2002). Therefore, it is not possible for a subject to perform a constant work rate that provides a VO2 equivalent to a particular percentage of the VO2max. This means that VO2max is not associated with a unique work rate, rather it is attained over a range of work rates. While the same value of VO2 (i.e., VO2max) is achieved regardless of exercise intensity within this domain, the time to achieve VO2max (TAVO2max) is inversely related to exercise intensity (Margaria et al. 1965; Hill et al. 2002).

Several studies have shown TAVO2max is shorter at higher intensities for both cycling (Margaria et al. 1965; Hill et al. 2002) and running exercises (Hill et al. 1997; Billat et al. 2000). Thus, there should be a unique exercise intensity within the severe domain, at which VO2max would be achieved momentarily at the point of fatigue or maintained for a few seconds. However, few studies have specifically sought to characterize VO2 responses within this exercise domain with regard to the lowest exercise duration (T LOW) or the highest intensity (I HIGH) at which the VO2max can still be reached. Recently, Hill et al. (2002) and Hill and Stevens (2005) have described in intensities within the severe intensity domain a linear relationship between TAVO2max and its respective time to exhaustion (T lim), in active individuals. In the work of Hill et al. (2002), using TAVO2max expressed as a function of T lim, it was possible to estimate T LOW (ET LOW) (the unique T lim at which VO2max is achieved at the point of fatigue, where, i.e., TAVO2max = T lim, see the upper panel in Fig. 1). The power associated with ET LOW, was considered as an estimative of I HIGH (EI HIGH), by using the two-parameter hyperbolic power–T lim relationship (see the lower panel in Fig. 1), so called of Critical Power model (CP model) (Morton 2006). However, the authors did not directly validate the estimates by testing participants at and above their EI HIGH. Thus, the actual assessment of I HIGH and T LOW from the VO2 responses during the several short constant-load exercises performed at different intensities (a gold standard value) still remains to be done.

Fig. 1
figure 1

Estimation of the lowest exercise duration (ET LOW) and the highest exercise intensity (EI HIGH) at which VO2max can be attained. In the upper panel, ET LOW (80 s) was estimated by solving for the time for which T lim was equal to TAVO2max, represented as the point of intersection between the T lim and TAVO2max regression line (solid line) and the line of identity (dashed line). In the lower panel, EI HIGH was estimated as the intensity associated with ET LOW, by using the two-parameter hyperbolic power–time relationship (solid line). Triangle is the highest exercise intensity (I HIGH = 435 W) and its respective duration (72 s) at which VO2max was attained, when directly determined. Data from a representative participant. See text for details

The advantages of using such models are based on the usefulness of a test protocol (e.g., 2–4 constant-load tests to establish simultaneously the relationships between power–T lim and TAVO2max–T lim) that provides an estimate of both, the lowest and the highest exercise intensity at which VO2max can be reached, along with other parameters of CP model, as the measurements of aerobic and anaerobic capacity. It would therefore be useful if a valid and reliable means of establishing these exercise intensities are available in a single test protocol.

In this way, some important aspects might be highlighted with regard to these two models utilized by Hill et al. (2002) for estimating T LOW and I HIGH. It can be hypothesized that the linear relationship between TAVO2max and T lim would be dependent on both, the speed of the VO2 response, and the relationship between relative exercise intensity (e.g., percentage of VO2max) and its respective T lim. As TAVO2max is determined by VO2 kinetics, the individuals with faster VO2 kinetics would be expected to achieve VO2max faster, and therefore, would have a lower TAVO2max. Additionally, differences in T lim at a given relative intensity might also to modify the linearity and slope of relationship between TAVO2max and T lim. Some studies have reported that aerobic training may accelerates VO2 kinetics and increase T lim during cycling exercise at the intensity associated with VO2max (Caputo et al. 2003; Caputo and Denadai 2004; Messonnier et al. 2004). Thus, it is likely that aerobic training status may influence the relationship between TAVO2max and T lim, and hence the estimative of T LOW.

Regarding the CP model, extrapolation of the relationship to high exercise intensities requires that an infinitely high power output can be sustained for a very short time. Clearly, this requirement is not met in nature, and the two-parameter CP model may break down when T lim is too low (e.g., T lim = ET LOW, see the lower panel in Fig. 1) (Bosquet et al. 2006; Hopkins et al. 1989; Morton 1996). Bosquet et al. (2006) have shown that critical velocity (extension of power–T lim to velocity–T lim model) determined by two-parameter hyperbolic model overestimated the real performance of exercise lasting ∼136 s. In this way, as EI HIGH is obtained from CP model by using ET LOW, it is likely that the two-parameter CP model shows a limitation to estimate EI HIGH when lower ET LOW values are utilized. As stated above, the higher the aerobic fitness, the lower TAVO2max, and consequently, the lower ET LOW. In this scenario, it can be hypothesized that aerobic fitness level can differently affect the validity of these two models for estimating T LOW and I HIGH.

Therefore, the main purpose of the present study was to verify the validity of the linear relationship between TAVO2max and T lim to estimate T LOW and of the CP model to estimate I HIGH, by direct determining I HIGH and T LOW. The second aim was to test the hypothesis that both, TAVO2max and T lim relationship and CP model might be affected by aerobic training status through a cross-sectional analysis. Since endurance runners exercising on cycle-ergometer show a moderate aerobic fitness (Caputo and Denadai 2004), they were studied as an intermediate aerobic fitness group between trained and untrained subjects.

Methods

Subjects

Ten untrained males (U) (24.4 ± 3.3 year; 74.4 ± 11.8 kg; 175.3 ± 5.4 cm), thirteen endurance cyclists (EC) (25.6 ± 4.5 year; 67.9 ± 7.2 kg; 175.6 ± 5.1 cm), 11 endurance runners (ER) (27.2 ± 8.9 year; 64.6 ± 5.9 kg; 173.1 ± 5.6 cm) volunteered their written informed consent to participate in the study. The study was performed according to the Declaration of Helsinki and the protocol was approved by the São Paulo State University’s Ethics Committee. ER had been competing for 4.2 ± 2.3 year and EC for 9.7 ± 4.3 year. Mean training distances (km) a week were 105 ± 34 for ER and 403 ± 145 for EC. The current 5 km time trials for ER were 1,025 ± 76 s. The subjects were asked not to train hard during the last 2 days before each test and to report to the laboratory at least 3 h after the last meal. The individuals in U group might be involved in recreational activities (e.g., soccer, jogging, and tennis) but all have not been engaged in any form of aerobic training.

Experimental design

Subjects visited the laboratory for three stages of experimentation. (1) An incremental test to determine VO2max and the intensity associated with the achievement of VO2max (IVO2max), (2) second stage involved three laboratory sessions to determine VO2 kinetics (TAVO2max), T lim, CP model parameters, ET LOW and EI HIGH, with the subjects performing in random order constant work rate transitions from rest to one of three exercise intensities: 95, 100, 110% IVO2max. (3) The third stage involved the determination of I HIGH and T LOW from two to four constant work rate tests to exhaustion. All tests were performed at the same time of day (±2 h) to minimize the effects of diurnal biological variation on the results (Carter et al. 2002). Subjects performed only one test on any given day and the tests were each separated by ≥48 h but completed within a period of 3–4 weeks.

Procedures

Materials

All exercise testing was conducted on a mechanically braked cycle ergometer (Monark 828E, Stockholm, Sweden). Pedal frequency was maintained at a constant 70 rpm for all cycle tests. Throughout the tests, the respiratory and pulmonary gas-exchange variables were measured using a breath-by-breath portable gas analyzer (Cosmed K4b2, Rome, Italy). These analyzers have previously been validated over a wide range of exercise intensities (McLaughlin et al. 2001). Before each test, the O2 and CO2 analysis systems were calibrated using ambient air and a gas of known O2 and CO2 concentration according to the manufacturer’s instructions, while the K4b2 turbine flowmeter was calibrated using a 3-l syringe (Cosmed K4b2, Rome, Italy). Heart rate (HR) was also monitored throughout the tests (Polar, Kempele, Finland). Breath-by-breath VO2 and HR data were reduced to 15 s stationary averages in the incremental test for VO2max determination (Data Management Software, Cosmed, Rome, Italy).

Incremental tests

Subjects performed incremental exercise (3-min stages) to volitional exhaustion to determine VO2max and IVO2max. The untrained subjects began the test at 35 W, runners at 70 W and the cyclists at 140 W, with increases in power of 35 W at each stage. At the end of each stage without interrupting the protocol an earlobe capillary blood sample was collected. Each subject was encouraged to give a maximum effort. The VO2max was defined as the highest 15 s VO2 value reached during the incremental test. All subjects fulfilled at least two of the following three criteria for VO2max: (1) respiratory exchange ratio (RER) greater than 1.1; (2) a blood lactate concentration greater than 8 mM; and (3) peak HR at least equal to 90% of the age-predicted maximal (Taylor et al. 1955). The IVO2max was defined as the power output at which VO2max occurred (Faina et al. 1997).

Constant power tests

The subjects subsequently performed a series of constant work rate transitions at the three exercise intensities (95, 100, 110% IVO2max) on separate days. The exercise protocol began with a 10 min warm-up at 50% IVO2max followed by 5 min rest, after which the subjects were instructed to perform the required intensity until they were unable to maintain the fixed intensity. At the start of cycling exercise, the subjects pedaled against zero resistance, until a pedal cadence of 70 rpm was reached, at that point, the pre-selected work rate was imposed and timing began. The test was terminated when the subject could not maintain a cadence of >67 rpm despite of verbal encouragement. T lim was measured to the nearest second. The transition from rest to exercise took <5 s. During the constant work rate tests the peak of VO2 (VO2peak) was defined as the highest 15 s average value.

Determination of CP

Individual values for power–T lim from the constant work rate tests were fit to the hyperbolic model, using iterative nonlinear regression procedures on Microcal Origin 6.0 (Northampton, MA, USA):

$$ T_{{{\text{Lim}}}} = {\text{AWC}} \cdot ({\text{power}} - {\text{CP}})^{{ - 1}} . $$
(1)

Values were derived for two parameters: CP, which is the power asymptote of the relationship, and AWC, which is the area bounded by CP, the x-axis, and any point on the power–time curve, and which represents the anaerobic work capacity (Barker et al. 2006). Regressions were also performed using the mathematically equivalent linear power–T −1lim and work–T lim relationships. The parameters estimates (CP and AWC) were not significantly different between the mathematical models. Thus, for each participant, the parameter estimate generated using the hyperbolic model was used as the criterion measure (EC, SEE = 5.3 ± 5.7 and R 2 = 0.98 ± 0.03; ER, SEE = 4.6 ± 3.1 and R 2 = 0.97 ± 0.02; U, SEE = 6.0 ± 4.2 and R 2 = 0.98 ± 0.02).

VO2 kinetics

For each exercise transition, breath by breath VO2 responses were fit to the following equation using iterative nonlinear regression procedures on Microcal Origin 6.0 (Fig. 2):

$$ V{\text{O}}_{2} (t) = V{\text{O}}_{{2{\text{b}}}} + A{\text{ }}{\left( {1 - {\text{e}}^{{ - (t/\tau )}} } \right)} $$
(2)

where VO2 (t) is oxygen uptake at time t, VO2b is the pre-exercise VO2; A is the asymptotic amplitude, and τ is the time constant of VO2 kinetics (defined as the time required to attain 63% of the A). Occasional errant breath values were deleted from the data set if they fell more than four standard deviations outside the mean 30-s periods (Ozyener et al. 2001). The VO2 was assumed to have essentially reached its maximal value when the value of (1 − e−(t/τ)) from Eq. 2 was 0.99, (i.e., when t = 4.6 × τ) and it was assumed that the VO2 was projecting to VO2max. Therefore, for each test, TAVO2max, was defined as 4.6 × τ. Time maintained at VO2max (TMVO2max), was determined by subtraction of the TAVO2max from T lim. We have showed that confidence intervals for τ estimation, which is based on oxygen uptake amplitude and the standard deviation of breath-by-breath fluctuations (Lamarra et al. 1987) were between ±2 and 5 s for one transition eliciting VO2max in groups with different aerobic fitness levels (Caputo and Denadai 2004).

Fig. 2
figure 2

Modeling of breath-by-breath VO2 response to severe exercise (from top to bottom) at 95, 100 and 110% IVO2max, respectively, for a representative subject, including the corresponding residual plots. Dashed line represents VO2max obtained during incremental test. The curves were fitted by a mono-exponential function

Estimation of ET LOW and EI HIGH

Linear regression techniques using Microcal Origin 6.0 were employed to describe individually the relationship between the TAVO2max and T lim. With TAVO2max expressed as a function of T lim, it was possible to solve for the unique T lim, at which VO2max might hypothetically be achieved momentarily at the exhaustion (ET LOW), i.e., when TAVO2max = T lim. EI HIGH was calculated using Eq. 1, utilizing ET LOW instead of T lim (Fig. 1).

Determination of T LOW and I HIGH

Subsequently, to determine directly I HIGH and T LOW, the subjects performed 2–4 further constant work rate tests to exhaustion. The work rate of the first test corresponded to EI HIGH. If during the first constant work rate test VO2max could be reach or maintained, further subsequent constant work rate tests at a 5% higher work rate were performed on separate days until VO2max could not be reached. If during the first constant work rate test VO2max could not be reach or maintained, further constant work rate tests were conducted with subsequently reduced work rate (5%). The I HIGH was defined for each subject as the highest power output at which the highest 15-s VO2 average determined from rolling averages of 5-s samples was equal or higher than VO2max (averaging the highest VO2 values from incremental and constant work rate tests) minus one typical error of measurement (TEM) (Fig. 3). TEM for VO2max was calculated as the SD of the change score in the highest VO2 values obtained during incremental and constant work rate tests divided by √2 (Hopkins 2000). T LOW was T lim performed at I HIGH. Additionally, in order to test the validity of CP model for predicting a given exercise intensity or duration, predictions of I HIGH and T LOW were also calculated using CP model from the actual T LOW and I HIGH [i.e., predicted I HIGH = AWC × T −1LOW  + CP or predicted T LOW = AWC × (I HIGH − CP)−1].

Fig. 3
figure 3

Determination of I HIGH and T LOW for the same subject represented in Fig. 1. Individual data points are 5-s average values. VO2max − TEM is VO2max average from incremental and constant work rate tests minus one typical error of measurement (TEM). T LOW is the time to fatigue. Note that only in the upper panel (137% IVO2max) the highest 15-s VO2 value (open circle) was equal or higher than VO2max − TEM, satisfying the criterion for I HIGH determination

Statistics

Data are presented as mean ± SD. Normality of the distribution was checked by the Shapiro–Wilk’s test. The effects of both aerobic training status (all variables) and exercise intensity (T lim and TAVO2max) were tested using one-way ANOVA, with Scheffé (training status) and Tukey (exercise intensity) post-hoc tests where appropriate. Student’s paired t test and Pearson correlation coefficients were used to test the validity of the models for estimating I HIGH and T LOW. In addition, the typical error of estimate (TEE) was calculated (Hopkins, 2000). Significance was set at P ≤ 0.05.

Results

Incremental tests

The mean values for VO2max determined in the incremental test for ER were lower than EC and higher than U (Table 1). There were no significantly differences (P = 0.31) for IVO2max between U (231 ± 45 W) and ER (257 ± 40 W), but both were lower (P < 0.001) than EC (348 ± 30 W).

Table 1 The highest VO2 values (ml kg 1 min 1) obtained in the different tests for untrained (U), runners (ER) and cyclists (EC)

Responses to the constant power tests

T lim and TAVO2max obtained during constant work rate tests at 95, 100 and 110% IVO2max are presented in Fig. 4. T lim values at 95% IVO2max for EC were similar (P > 0.20) to ER and U. However, U showed lower (P = 0.04) values compared to ER. There were no differences for T lim at 100 and 110% IVO2max between the groups. For ER and U groups, TAVO2max at 95, 100, 110% IVO2max were not different (P > 0.09), but higher compared to EC (P < 0.03). With regard to exercise intensity, TAVO2max were longer in the lower power tests in U (P < 0.05). However, in EC and ER TAVO2max were different only between 95 and 110% IVO2max (P < 0.02).

Fig. 4
figure 4

Graphic representation of the relationship between T lim and TAVO2max. ET LOW was determined by solving for the time for which T lim = TAVO2max, represented here as the point of intersection of the T lim and TAVO2max regression lines with the line of identify. The dotted line is the line of identify; solid line represents the regression equation for each group. Filled triangle represents U, filled circle represents ER, filled square represents EC. The regression equation is represented on legend for each group. Data are mean ± SD. *Significant difference for T lim between U and ER

CP parameters

The mean value for CP was not different (P = 0.08) between U (182 ± 52 W) and ER (222 ± 34 W), but higher (P < 0.001) for EC (299 ± 30 W). The mean value for AWC was not different (P > 0.07) between the three groups (U = 17.4 ± 3.4 kJ; ER = 14.9 ± 2.8 kJ; EC = 19.7 ± 6.7 kJ).

Validity of the proposed models

The mean values for actual, estimated and predicted I HIGH and T LOW are reported in Table 2. There were no differences for I HIGH (W) between U and ER (P = 0.18), but both were lower (P < 0.001) compared to EC. When IHIGH was expressed as percentage of IVO2max there were no differences between EC and ER (P = 0.29), but U was lower compared to EC (P = 0.02). T LOW were lower (P < 0.001) in EC, but similar between U and ER (P = 0.18). EI HIGH was similar (P > 0.17) and significantly correlated with I HIGH only in U (r = 0.87, P = 0.01) and ER (r = 0.61, P = 0.04). The CP model also overestimated the predicted I HIGH only for EC (P = 0.04). We found significant correlations between the bias (EI HIGH − I HIGH) and ET LOW for all groups (U = −0.85, P = 0.02; ER = −0.83, P = 0.002; EC = −0.59, P = 0.03) (Fig. 5). For each group, the mean correlation between TAVO2max and T lim were of 0.84 ± 0.2, 0.85 ± 0.2 and 0.85 ± 0.2 for U, ER and EC, respectively. See Fig. 4 for a graphical representation of these relationships for each group. EI HIGH and T LOW were different only for U (P = 0.03), however, they were not significantly correlated for all groups.

Table 2 Actual, estimated and predicted values for the lowest exercise time (T LOW) and the highest absolute and relative intensity (I HIGH) at which the VO2max is reached for untrained (U), runners (ER) and cyclists (EC)
Fig. 5
figure 5

Relationships between ET LOW and the difference between EI HIGH and I HIGH (bias) for U (a), for ER (b), and for EC (c). Solid line represents the regression equation

The typical error of estimative (TEE) suggests a low validity of the models to estimate ET LOW for U (15.6%) and ER (13.8%) but not for EC (7.2%). Higher values of TEE for ET LOW suggested a very low validity of the TAVO2max and T lim relationship (15.3, 21.5 and 30.1% for U, ER and EC, respectively). The mean variability of the highest VO2 obtained in incremental and constant work rate tests (95, 100, 110% IVO2max) were not different between U [4.2 (0.5 − 8.4)%], ER [4.3 (1.6 − 6.8)%] and EC [3.4 (1.4 − 6.6)%], but there was a high variability within each group.

Discussion

The main finding of this investigation was that the aerobic training status affects the validity of both TAVO2max and T lim relationship and CP model for estimating I HIGH (W), as the validity becoming progressively lower in individuals with higher aerobic fitness. However, the relationship between the TAVO2max and T lim was not valid to estimate ET LOW, irrespective of aerobic training status.

Effects of training status

The severe-intensity domain is characterized by the attainment of VO2max. Several studies have stated that VO2max is achieved faster at higher intensities (Margaria et al. 1965; Billat et al. 2000; Hill et al. 2002; Hill and Stevens 2005). Indeed, there was a decrease of TAVO2max, at higher intensities for U group. However, for ER and EC there was an intensity effect only between the two extremes, 95 and 110% IVO2max. It is important to note that at 95% IVO2max the VO2 rises slowly towards its maximal value by the occurrence of slow component (Gaesser and Poole 1996; Billat et al. 2000; Ozyener et al. 2001). Despite of mathematical modeling employed in this study do not characterize the different phases of VO2 kinetics (fast and slow phases), several studies analyzing separately both overall response (MRT) and each phase of VO2 kinetics showed that the slower overall VO2 responses were associated with the higher slow components amplitudes (Burnley et al. 2000; MacDonald et al. 1997). Hence, the slower overall VO2 response at 95% IVO2max might be responsible for the differences found on TAVO2max between 95 and 110% IVO2max. Moreover, the slow component seems to be reduced by aerobic training (Casaburi et al. 1987; Russell et al. 2002; Ocel et al. 2003), which might also provide an explanation for the difference found between 95 and 100% IVO2max that was only apparent for U. Thus, our data confirms that in the severe-intensity domain, TAVO2max is reduced at higher intensities irrespective of the specificity of training. Additionally, it seems that these differences are attenuated by an increase in aerobic fitness level.

To our knowledge, this study is the first to determine directly the lowest exercise duration and the highest constant exercise intensity at which the VO2max can still be reached during cycling. EC showed higher I HIGH (451 W) and lower T LOW (117 s) compared to ER (319 W and 170 s) and U (269 W and 209 s), and both I HIGH and T LOW were not different between ER and U (Table 2). However, differences were not found between EC (130%) and ER (124%) for relative I HIGH (expressed as a percentage of IVO2max). At other intensities (95, 100 and 110% IVO2max), there was an effect of specific aerobic training on VO2 kinetics (TAVO2max), which also decreased T LOW for a similar I HIGH (IVO2max%) between EC and ER. Furthermore, for ER the transfer of training effects seems to disappear during high-intensity exercise, as observed for TAVO2max, I HIGH and T LOW. Thus, adjustments induced by specific aerobic training seem to be required to the best interplay between caption, delivery and O2 utilization allowing VO2max be attained quickly, in just ∼2 min of commencement of exercise. Resolution of the determinants of exercise tolerance and their relationships to the VO2max is of great importance for high-intensity aerobic training elaboration, in order to further increase the aerobic energy release mainly in highly trained athletes, likely sparing anaerobic substrates and prolonging exercise tolerance (Laursen and Jenkins 2002). Future research could to test the applicability and effectiveness of I HIGH and T LOW for prescribing high-intensity aerobic training.

Validity of the proposed models

The main aim of our study was to assess the validity of the ET LOW and EI HIGH estimates from the linear relationship between TAVO2max and T lim and from the CP model, concerning the aerobic training status. T LOW was higher than ET LOW only for U and no significant correlations between each other were observed for all groups. A possible limitation could be the reproducibility of T lim at high-intensity exercise, which might lead to the differences found between T LOW and ET LOW. However, some studies have reported that T lim is highly repeatable, with a difference of no more than 5% between trials performed within severe-intensity domain (Bishop and Jenkins 1995; Carter et al. 2006). This value is less than the 25% difference we have found between T LOW and ET LOW for U.

For EC, I HIGH was overestimated by EI HIGH. For U and ER, I HIGH was not different and significantly correlated with EI HIGH. In spite of the good correlation showed by U, EI HIGH could not be determined in three subjects due to: (1) large differences between TAVO2max values that increased the slope of linear regression, therefore, the line of regression could not cross the line of identify, or it crossed at an unphysiologically possible value; and (2) the TAVO2max value projected by monoexponential fit was higher than T lim. The impossibility to estimate EI HIGH in 30% of subjects for U group weakens the model proposed by Hill et al. (2002) specifically for this group. Taken together, these results suggest that aerobic training status affects the validity of the proposed models for estimating both ET LOW and EI HIGH, as the validity becoming lower with the increase of the aerobic fitness level.

Possible limitations of the relationship between TAVO2max and T lim

Analyzing the predictive model utilized to estimate ET LOW we could notice a training effect on the slope of linear regression between TAVO2max and T lim that resulted in lower ET LOW values compared to T LOW for U (Fig. 4). As stated above, this probably occurred in this group of lower aerobic fitness due to the higher effect of slow component (Casaburi et al. 1987; Russell et al. 2002; Ocel et al. 2003) and/or a lower T lim at 95% IVO2max. Some differences between actual and estimated variables may also be derived from model assumptions that are not fully convincing.

The first assumption is that TAVO2max decreases linearly at higher intensities until it approaches T lim. This is based upon the strength of the relationship between TAVO2max and T lim. Indeed, this relationship does not appear to be strong, with a mean correlation of 0.84 between the variables in our study. Furthermore, it is worth noting that TAVO2max presented by both ER and U at 110% IVO2max were already lower than T LOW. This adds even more disadvantage in using mathematical modeling to indirectly determine T LOW. In this way, the precision of ET LOW was also dependent upon the precision of the determination of TAVO2max. As TAVO2max was defined based on VO2 kinetics (i.e., 4.6 × τ), one possible source of error was the use of a mono-exponential model to fit VO2 response during exercise at 95% IVO2max, with the likely emergence of a slow component during the VO2 response (Gaesser and Poole 1996; Ozyener et al. 2001). Because the present study sought simply to determine TAVO2max (by overall VO2 response) and not to characterize the nature of the response, the use of this model seems appropriate (Fig. 2). Nonetheless, since the estimate of τ is associated with an error term, each value of TAVO2max also has an associated error term. Despite we have performed only one transition, the signal to noise ratio of data can be improved in higher VO2 amplitudes (Lamarra et al. 1987), therefore, the higher VO2 amplitude the smaller the confidence interval. In summary, some of these aspects can help to explain the lack of validity of the relationship between TAVO2max and T lim for estimating ET LOW.

Possible limitations of the CP model

Some authors have indicated the limitation of the two-parameter CP model for estimating the intensity or T lim at high-intensity exercises (Hopkins et al. 1989; Morton 1996; Bosquet et al. 2006). Recently, Bosquet et al. (2006) have shown that critical velocity determined by two-parameter hyperbolic model overestimated the real performance for the exercise duration of ∼136 s. In the same way, in the present study the CP model overestimated both the estimated I HIGH (EI HIGH) and predicted I HIGH only for EC, presumably because the effect of reduced exercise duration on the estimates from CP model (Table 2; Fig. 6). For U and ER, the CP model estimated and predicted similar intensities for these variables. As expected, the similar value of ET LOW (compared to T LOW) in ER group, when inserted in the CP model, generated similar values between I HIGH and EI HIGH. Unexpectedly, the lower ET LOW for U also generated similar values between I HIGH and EI HIGH, even with the CP model not overestimating the intensity predicted from T LOW. This likely occurred due to a lower statistical power (type 2 error) as a result of small sample size and large coefficient of variation. Other aspect would be the factual limitation of the CP model for estimating the intensity for short exercise duration, as demonstrated by Bosquet et al. (2006) and in the present study by EC (Fig. 6). Despite this, the CP model did not overestimate EI HIGH for U and ER, but we found high significant negative correlations between the bias (EI HIGH − I HIGH) and ET LOW (Fig. 5), suggesting that the shorter the estimated time (ET LOW), the more the CP model overestimated the intensity (EI HIGH).

Fig. 6
figure 6

Representation demonstrating the potential limitation of the two-parameter hyperbolic CP model for estimating the intensity for short exercise duration. Note I HIGH lie outside of regressions lines as decreasing of exercise duration. The solid, the dashed, and the dashed dotted lines represent the regression equations from CP model (using only 95, 100, 110% IVO2max as predictive trials) for EC, ER, and U, respectively. Open triangle represents U, open circle represents ER, open square represents EC. See text for details

Possible limitations of the criterion for I HIGH determination

For the determination of I HIGH we assumed that a subject had reached VO2max when VO2 was equal or higher than VO2max (averaging the highest VO2 values from incremental and constant work rate tests) minus one TEM. Several studies have shown VO2max is reached at these intensities or similar duration in both running (Billat et al. 2000; Hill et al. 1997; Carter et al. 2006) and cycling (Hill et al. 2002; Caputo and Denadai 2004; Hill and Stevens 2005). This criterion was utilized for two reasons: (1) to individualize the day-to-day biological variability on VO2max values; (2) not to assume fixed values or fixed percentages of only one test, such as VO2max obtained in incremental test (VO2maxINC) minus 2.1 ml kg−1 min−1 (Billat et al. 1999), or 95% of VO2maxINC (Billat et al. 2000). The utilization of only one value of VO2max (e.g., VO2maxINC) minus a fixed value can only add to biological variability when used as a reference value for testing on different days, hence it will not be able “to offset” biological variation effect. In order to minimize this effect, it was utilized for each subject the mean of four VO2max values subtracted by its biological variability (i.e., one TEM). Therefore, our criterion seemed to obtain a more robust and individualized VO2max, increasing the accuracy of determining I HIGH and T LOW using only one transition. Nevertheless, other experimental designs could obtain a high precision to determine I HIGH and T LOW from averaging repeated bouts.

In conclusion, the present study has shown that the aerobic training status affects the validity of the proposed models for estimating both T LOW and I HIGH. The relationship between the TAVO2max and T lim was not valid to estimate ET LOW, irrespective of aerobic training status. This relationship appeared to be affected mainly by the slower VO2 response in the individuals with lower aerobic fitness, which resulted in the lower estimated ET LOW. The exercise intensity estimated from CP model seems to be dependent on exercise duration, suggesting that the model is indirectly affected by aerobic status, since actual and estimated T LOW are reduced via an increase in aerobic fitness. For participants in the present study, depending on the aerobic fitness, the highest intensity and the shortest duration that would permit attainment of VO2max were, respectively, 117–129% IVO2max and ∼2–3.5 min, on average. These variables might be interesting to prescribe high-intensity interval training, mainly in high trained athletes.