Abstract
Sea ice, one of the most dominant barriers to Arctic shipping, has decreased dramatically over the past four decades. Arctic maritime transport is hereupon growing in recent years. To produce a long-term assessment of trans-Arctic accessibility, we systematically revisit the daily Arctic navigability with a view to the combined effects of sea ice thickness and concentration throughout the period 1979–2020. The general trends of Navigable Windows (NW) in the Northeast Passage show that the number of navigable days is steadily growing and reached 89±16 days for Open Water (OW) ships and 163±19 days for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships in the 2010s, despite high interannual and interdecadal variability in the NWs. More consecutive NWs have emerged annually for both OW ships and PC6 ships since 2005 because of the faster sea ice retreat. Since the 1980s, the number of simulated Arctic routes has continuously increased, and optimal navigability exists in these years of record-low sea ice extent (e.g., 2012 and 2020). Summertime navigability in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, on the other hand, varies dramatically due to changing sea ice conditions. This systematic assessment of Arctic navigability provides a reference for better projecting the future trans-Arctic shipping routes.
摘要
作为影响北极航运的关键要素之一,北极海冰在过去40年中显著减少,相应地,北极航运活动在近些年来也日益增加。为了对北极东北航道的历史可通航性进行系统评估,基于海冰厚度和密集度的协同作用视角,本文详细分析了1979-2020近40年来东北航道的逐日可通航性。尽管东北航道的通航窗口期存在较大的年际和年代际变化,但总体趋势表明东北航道的通航窗口长度在稳定增长:2010年以来,普通商船(OW)的平均通航窗口达到了89±16天,具有中等抗冰能力的商船(PC6)的平均通航窗口可达163±19天。由于海冰减少速度加快,2005年以来,OW船舶和PC6船舶每年都出现连续的通航窗口。结果显示,20世纪80年代以来,可通航的北极航线数量不断增加,航道的最佳通航能力出现在海冰面积创纪录低值的年份(如2012年和2020年);冰情状况变化可对东西伯利亚海和拉普捷夫海的夏季可通航性产生巨大影响。本研究可为预测未来的北极航运活动提供有益参考。
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
Data availability statement
PIOMAS sea ice data used in this study can be found at http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/model_grid.
References
Årthun, M., I. H. Onarheim, J. Dörr, and T. Eldevik, 2021: The seasonal and regional transition to an ice-free Arctic. Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090825, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12460.
Bekkers, E., J. F. Francois, and H. Rojas-Romagosa, 2018: Melting ice caps and the economic impact of opening the Northern Sea Route. The Economic Journal, 128, 1095–1127, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12460.
Bliss, A. C., and M. R. Anderson, 2018: Arctic sea ice melt onset timing from passive microwave-based and surface air temperature-based methods. J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos., 123, 9063–9080, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028676.
Brodzik, M. J., B. Billingsley, T. Haran, B. Raup, and M. H. Savoie, 2012: EASE-Grid 2.0: Incremental but significant improvements for earth-gridded data sets. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 1, 32–45, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi1010032.
Browse, J., K. S. Carslaw, A. Schmidt, and J. J. Corbett, 2013: Impact of future Arctic shipping on high-latitude black carbon deposition. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4459–4463, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50876.
Cao, Y. F., and Coauthors, 2022: Trans-Arctic shipping routes expanding faster than the model projections. Global Environmental Change, 73, 102488, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102488.
Chen, J. L., and Coauthors, 2020: Changes in sea ice and future accessibility along the Arctic Northeast Passage. Global and Planetary Change, 195, 103319, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103319.
Chen, J. L., and Coauthors, 2021: Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic. The Cryosphere, 15, 5473–5482, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-5473-2021.
Cohen, J., and Coauthors, 2014: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather. Nature Geoscience, 7, 627–637, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234.
Dawson, G., J. Landy, M. Tsamados, A. S. Komarov, S. Howell, H. Heorton, and T. Krumpen, 2022: A 10-year record of Arctic summer sea ice freeboard from CryoSat-2. Remote Sens. Environ., 268, 112744, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2021.112744.
Dijkstra, E. W., 1959: A note on two problems in connexion with graphs. Numerische Mathematik, 1, 269–271, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01386390.
Eguíluz, V. M., J. Fernández-Gracia, X. Irigoien, and C. M. Duarte, 2016: A quantitative assessment of Arctic shipping in 2010–2014. Scientific Reports, 6, 30682, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep30682.
Farré, A. B., and Coauthors, 2014: Commercial Arctic shipping through the Northeast Passage: Routes, resources, governance, technology, and infrastructure. Polar Geography, 37, 298–324, https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2014.965769.
Gunnarsson, B., 2021: Recent ship traffic and developing shipping trends on the Northern Sea Route—Policy implications for future arctic shipping. Marine Policy, 124, 104369, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.104369.
Gunnarsson, B., and A. Moe, 2021: Ten years of international shipping on the Northern Sea Route: Trends and challenges. Arctic Review, 12, 4–30, https://doi.org/10.23865/arctic.v12.2614.
Hauser, D. D. W., K. L. Laidre, and H. L. Stern, 2018: Vulnerability of Arctic marine mammals to vessel traffic in the increasingly ice-free Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 115, 7617–7622, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1803543115.
IPCC, 2021: Summary for policymakers. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, V. Masson-Delmotte et al., Eds., Cambridge University Press.
Ji, M., G. C. Liu, Y. W. He, Y. Li, and T. Li, 2021: Analysis of sea ice timing and navigability along the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2000 to 2019. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 9, 728, https://doi.org/10.3390/JMSE9070728.
Khon, V. C., I. I. Mokhov, and V. A. Semenov, 2017: Transit navigation through Northern Sea Route from satellite data and CMIP5 simulations. Environmental Research Letters, 12, 024010, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5841.
Khon, V. C., I. I. Mokhov, M. Latif, V. A. Semenov, and W. Park, 2010: Perspectives of Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage in the twenty-first century. Climatic Change, 100, 757–768, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9683-2.
Kwok, R., 2018: Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, and multiyear ice coverage: Losses and coupled variability (1958–2018). Environmental Research Letters, 13, 105005, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aae3ec.
Labe, Z., G. Magnusdottir, and H. Stern, 2018: Variability of Arctic sea ice thickness using PIOMAS and the CESM large ensemble. J. Climate, 31, 3233–3247, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0436.1.
Lasserre, F., and S. Pelletier, 2011: Polar super seaways? Maritime transport in the Arctic: An analysis of shipowners’ intentions Journal of Transport Geography, 19, 1465–1473, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2011.08.006.
Lei, R. B., H. J. Xie, J. Wang, M. Leppäranta, I. Jónsdóttir, and Z. H. Zhang, 2015: Changes in sea ice conditions along the Arctic Northeast Passage from 1979 to 2012. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 119, 132–144, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2015.08.004.
Li, X. Y., N. Otsuka, and L. W. Brigham, 2021a: Spatial and temporal variations of recent shipping along the Northern Sea Route. Polar Science, 27, 100569, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2020.100569.
Li, X. K., A. H. Lynch, D. A. Bailey, S. R. Stephenson, and S. Veland, 2021b: The impact of black carbon emissions from projected Arctic shipping on regional ice transport. Climate Dyn., 57, 2453–2466, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05814-9.
Li, X. K., S. R. Stephenson, A. H. Lynch, M. A. Goldstein, D. A. Bailey, and S. Veland, 2021c: Arctic shipping guidance from the CMIP6 ensemble on operational and infrastructural timescales. Climatic Change, 167, 23, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03172-3.
Liang, H. J., and J. Su, 2021: Variability in sea ice melt onset in the Arctic northeast passage: Seesaw of the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea. J. Geophys. Res.: Oceans, 126, e2020JC016985, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016985.
Lindsay, R., and A. Schweiger, 2015: Arctic sea ice thickness loss determined using subsurface, aircraft, and satellite observations. The Cryosphere, 9, 269–283, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-269-2015.
Lindsey, R., and M. Scott, 2020: Climate Change: Arctic sea ice summer minimum. https://Climate.gov. September, 8. [Available online at https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-arctic-sea-ice-summer-minimum].
Lindstad, H. E., and G. S. Eskeland, 2016: Environmental regulations in shipping: Policies leaning towards globalization of scrubbers deserve scrutiny. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 47, 67–76, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.05.004.
Liu, M. J., and J. Kronbak, 2010: The potential economic viability of using the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative route between Asia and Europe. Journal of Transport Geography, 18, 434–444, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.08.004.
Liu, X.-H., L. Ma, J.-Y. Wang, Y. Wang, and L.-N. Wang, 2017: Navigable windows of the Northwest Passage. Polar Science, 13, 91–99, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2017.02.001.
Lynch, A. H., C. H. Norchi, and X. K. Li, 2022: The interaction of ice and law in Arctic marine accessibility. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 119, e2202720119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2202720119.
McCallum, J., 1996: Safe Speed in Ice: An Analysis of Transit Speed and Ice Decision Numerals. Ottawa, ON, Canada: Ship Safety Northern (AMNS) Transport Canada. ENFOTEC Technical Services Inc., GeoInfo Solutions Ltd. [Available online at http://www.geoinfosolutions.com/projects/Safeice.pdf.]
Melia, N., K. Haines, and E. Hawkins, 2016: Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 9720–9728, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069315.
Miller, A. W., and G. M. Ruiz, 2014: Arctic shipping and marine invaders. Nature Climate Change, 4, 413–416, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2244.
Min, C., Q. H. Yang, D. K. Chen, Y. J. Yang, X. Y. Zhou, Q. Shu, and J. P. Liu, 2022: The emerging Arctic shipping corridors. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2022GL099157, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL099157.
Mudryk, L. R., J. Dawson, S. E. L. Howell, C. Derksen, T. A. Zagon, and M. Brady, 2021: Impact of 1, 2 and 4 °C of global warming on ship navigation in the Canadian Arctic. Nature Climate Change, 11, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01087-6.
Notz, D., and SIMIP Community, 2020: Arctic sea ice in CMIP6. Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086749, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749.
Parkinson, C. L., 2014: Spatially mapped reductions in the length of the Arctic sea ice season. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4316–4322, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060434.
Ricker, R., S. Hendricks, L. Kaleschke, X. Tian-Kunze, J. King, and C. Haas, 2017: A weekly Arctic sea-ice thickness data record from merged CryoSat-2 and SMOS satellite data. The Cryosphere, 11, 1607–1623, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-11-1607-2017.
Rogers, T. S., J. E. Walsh, T. S. Rupp, L. W. Brigham, and M. Sfraga, 2013: Future Arctic marine access: Analysis and evaluation of observations, models, and projections of sea ice. The Cryosphere, 7, 321–332, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-321-2013.
Schøyen, H., and S. Bråthen, 2011: The Northern Sea Route versus the Suez Canal: Cases from bulk shipping. Journal of Transport Geography, 19, 977–983, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2011.03.003.
Schweiger, A., R. Lindsay, J. L. Zhang, M. Steele, H. Stern, and R. Kwok, 2011: Uncertainty in modeled Arctic sea ice volume. J. Geophys. Res.: Oceans, 116, C00D06, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007084.
Schweiger, A. J., K. R. Wood, and J. L. Zhang, 2019: Arctic sea ice volume variability over 1901–2010: A model-based reconstruction. J. Climate, 32, 4731–4752, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0008.1.
Smith, L. C., and S. R. Stephenson, 2013: New Trans-Arctic shipping routes navigable by midcentury. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 110, E1191–E1195, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1214212110.
Stephenson, S. R., and L. C. Smith, 2015: Influence of climate model variability on projected Arctic shipping futures. Earth’s Future, 3, 331–343, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015EF000317.
Stephenson, S. R., L. C. Smith, and J. A. Agnew, 2011: Divergent long-term trajectories of human access to the Arctic. Nature Climate Change, 1, 156–160, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1120.
Stephenson, S. R., L. W. Brigham, and L. C. Smith, 2014: Marine accessibility along Russia’s Northern Sea Route. Polar Geography, 37, 111–133, https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2013.845859.
Stephenson, S. R., W. S. Wang, C. S. Zender, H. L. Wang, S. J. Davis, and P. J. Rasch, 2018: Climatic responses to future trans-Arctic shipping. Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 9898–9908, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078969.
Tian-Kunze, X., L. Kaleschke, N. Maaß, M. Mäkynen, N. Serra, M. Drusch, and T. Krumpen, 2014: SMOS-derived thin sea ice thickness: Algorithm baseline, product specifications and initial verification. The Cryosphere, 8, 997–1018, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-997-2014.
Uotila, P., and Coauthors, 2019: An assessment of ten ocean reanalyses in the polar regions. Climate Dyn., 52, 1613–1650, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4242-z.
Wang, X. J., J. Key, R. Kwok, and J. L. Zhang, 2016: Comparison of Arctic sea ice thickness from satellites, aircraft, and PIOMAS data. Remote Sensing, 8, 713, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8090713.
Watts, M., W. Maslowski, Y. J. Lee, J. C. Kinney, and R. Osinski, 2021: A spatial evaluation of Arctic sea ice and regional limitations in CMIP6 historical simulations. J. Climate, 34, 6399–6420, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0491.1.
Wei, T., Q. Yan, W. Qi, M. H. Ding, and C. Y. Wang, 2020: Projections of Arctic sea ice conditions and shipping routes in the twenty-first century using CMIP6 forcing scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 15, 104079, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abb2c8.
Xiu, Y., C. Min, J. P. Xie, L. J. Mu, B. Han, and Q. H. Yang, 2021: Evaluation of sea-ice thickness reanalysis data from the coupled ocean-sea-ice data assimilation system TOPAZ4. J. Glaciol., 67, 353–365, https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2020.110.
Xiu, Y., H. Luo, Q. H. Yang, S. Tietsche, J. Day, and D. K. Chen, 2022: The challenge of Arctic sea ice thickness prediction by ECMWF on subseasonal time scales. Geophys. Res. Lett., 49, e2021GL097476, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097476.
Yu, M., P. Lu, Z. Y. Li, Z. J. Li, Q. K. Wang, X. W. Cao, and X. D. Chen, 2021: Sea ice conditions and navigability through the Northeast Passage in the past 40 years based on remote-sensing data. International Journal of Digital Earth, 14, 555–574, https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2020.1860144.
Yumashev, D., K. van Hussen, J. Gille, and G. Whiteman, 2017: Towards a balanced view of Arctic shipping: Estimating economic impacts of emissions from increased traffic on the Northern Sea Route. Climatic Change, 143, 143–155, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1980-6.
Zhang, J. L., and D. A. Rothrock, 2003: Modeling global sea ice with a thickness and enthalpy distribution model in generalized curvilinear coordinates. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 845–861, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<0845:MGSIWA>2.0.CO;2.
Zhou, X. Y., C. Min, Y. J. Yang, J. C. Landy, L. J. Mu, and Q. H. Yang, 2021: Revisiting Trans-Arctic maritime navigability in 2011–2016 from the perspective of sea ice thickness. Remote Sensing, 13, 2766, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13142766.
Acknowledgements
This is a contribution to the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), a flagship activity of the Polar Prediction Project (PPP), initiated by the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Thanks are given to the University of Washington for providing the PIOMAS sea ice data. We thank the insightful suggestions from two anonymous reviewers and the editor. We also acknowledge the computing resources on the supercomputer Ollie provided by Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research and computing resources provided by National Supercomputer Center in Guangzhou. This study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41922044, 41941009), the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (No. 2020B1515020025), and the fundamental research funds for the Norges Forskningsråd (No. 328886). C Min acknowledges support from the China Scholarship Council (No. 202006380131).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
Q. H. YANG and H. LUO conceived this study. C MIN conducted this study, performed analysis and wrote the manuscript. X. Y. ZHOU and Y. J. YANG helped process and visualize the essential data. H. LUO, Y. J. WANG, J. L. ZHANG and Q. H. YANG, contributed to the interpretation of the results and reviewed this paper. All authors contributed to the critical discussion of the content.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.
Additional information
Article Highlights
• The consecutive navigable windows of the Northeast Passage emerge annually for both Open Water and Polar Class 6 ships since 2005.
• The duration of the navigable window is extended while the sailing time is shortened since the 1980s.
• The sea ice conditions in the East Siberian Sea and Laptev Sea have momentous impacts on trans-Arctic shipping.
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Changing Arctic Climate and Low/Mid-latitudes Connections.
Electronic Supplementary Material
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Min, C., Zhou, X., Luo, H. et al. Toward Quantifying the Increasing Accessibility of the Arctic Northeast Passage in the Past Four Decades. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 40, 2378–2390 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2040-3
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-2040-3