Abstract
An atmosphere-only model system for making seasonal prediction and projecting future intensities of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) along the South China coast is upgraded by including ocean and wave models. A total of 642 TCs have been re-simulated using the new system to produce a climatology of TC intensity in the South China Sea. Detailed comparisons of the simulations from the atmosphere-only and the fully coupled systems reveal that the inclusion of the additional ocean and wave models enable differential sea surface temperature responses to various TC characteristics such as translational speed and size. In particular, interaction with the ocean does not necessarily imply a weakening of the TC, with the coastal bathymetry possibly playing a role in causing a near-shore intensification of the TC. These results suggest that to simulate the evolution of TC structure more accurately, it is essential to use an air-sea coupled model instead of an atmosphere-only model.
摘要
把一个用于沿华南沿海登陆的热带气旋强度进行季节预测和未来预估的纯大气模式系统通过加入海洋和波浪模式而进行升级. 利用新系统重新模拟了642个热带气旋, 产生了南海热带气旋强度的气候学特征. 纯大气和完全耦合系统模拟的详细比较显示, 加入了额外的海洋和波浪模型使得海平面温度对各种热带气旋特征比如移动速度和大小的响应不同. 特别是, 与海洋的相互作用并不一定意味着热带气旋的减弱, 沿海测深可能在引起热带气旋近岸增强方面发挥了作用. 这些结果表明, 为了更准确地模拟热带气旋结构的演变, 有必要使用海气耦合模式, 而不是单纯的大气模式.
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Data Availability. The COAWST model is available at https://coawstmodel-trac.sourcerepo.com/coawstmodel_COAWST/, and its configurations are described in section 2. Initial and boundary conditions are taken from CFSR at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/climate-forecast-system. JTWC best track can be downloaded from htps://www.nιetocnavy.nιil/jtwc/jtwc.html?best-tracks. SST and simulated TC tracks produced in this study and LC are available at 10.2881/zenodo.5048538.
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Acknowledgements
This research is supported by Hong Kong Research Grants Council Grant CityU E-CityU101/16. RT was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council/UKRI (Grant No. NE/V017756/1).
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Article Highlights
• Ocean has differential responses to the translational speed and size of tropical cyclones.
• Fast-moving and small tropical cyclones may intensify over a shallow continental shelf due to warmer ocean.
• Air-sea coupling is essential to accurate simulate tropical cyclone landfall intensities.
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Lok, C.C.F., Chan, J.C.L. & Toumi, R. Importance of Air-Sea Coupling in Simulating Tropical Cyclone Intensity at Landfall. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 1777–1786 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1326-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1326-9