Abstract.
Using two different measures of relative cohort size – one indicating the size and placement of an individual's own birth cohort, and the other, the ratio of young to prime age adults in the United States in that year – it has been possible to isolate strong effects of the population age structure on wages in the United States over the past thirty-three years. These effects have been strong enough that virtually all of the observed change in the experience premium, and a substantial proportion of the changes in the college wage premium, can be explained by the relative cohort size variables alone. Even changes in the amount of within-group variance in wages appear to be largely a function of changing age structure, and absolute wage levels have been strongly affected by these demographic changes, suggesting that population growth can have positive effects on the economy.
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Received: 27 January 1998/Accepted: 6 June 1998
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Macunovich, D. The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States. J Popul Econ 12, 215–272 (1999). https://doi.org/10.1007/s001480050098
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s001480050098