Conclusion
According to the transition theory, the transformation of an agricultural society into an industrial urbanized society is associated with a decline of the death rate and with a lagged decline of the birth rate. A variety of mathematical formulations of these trends are conceivable. In this paper, the following assumptions were adopted: (1) that the rate of change of the death rate is a maximum when the death rate is midway between an upper and a lower equilibrium level, and that it is the closer to zero, the closer the death rate is to the equilibrium levels, and (2) that the birth rate follows the death rate after a time lag. This formulation of the transition theory yields a doubly asymptotic population trend corresponding to a modified logistic curve.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
On the demographic transition theory see: C. P. Blacker, “Stages in Population Growth,”The Eugenics Review, 39 (1947), pp. 81–101; C. M. Cipolla,The Economic History of World Population (Penguin Books, 1962); A. J. Coale and E. M. Hoover,Population Growth and Economic Development in Low Income Countries (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1958); D. O. Cowgill, “The Theory of Population Growth Cycles,”American Journal of Sociology, 55 (1949), pp. 163–70; — “Transition Theory as General Population Theory,”Social Forces, 41 (1963), pp. 270–74; K. Davis, “The Theory of Change and Response in Modern Demographic History,”Population Index, 29 (1963), pp. 345–65; F. W. Notestein, “The Population of the World in the Year 2000,”Journal of the American Sociological Association, 45 (1950), pp. 335–45; W. Petersen, “The Demographic Transition,”American Sociological Review, 25 (1960), pp. 334–47; W. C. Robinson, “The Development of Modern Population Theory,”The American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 23 (1964), pp. 376–92; N. B. Ryder, “The Conceptualization of the Transition in Fertility,”Cold Spring Harbor Symposia on Quantitative Biology, 22 (1957), pp. 91–5; J. J. Spengler, “Population Theory,” in B. F. Haley ed.,A Survey of Contemporary Economics, II (Homewood, Illinois: R. D. Irwin, 1952), pp. 83–128; G. J. Stolnitz, “The Demographic Transition from High to Low Brith Rates and Death Rates,” in R. Freedman ed.,Population: The Vital Revolution (Garden City, New York: Garden City Books, 1964), pp. 30–46; United Nations,The Determinants and Consequences of Population Trends (New York City, 1953).
The transition theory involves the transition from one demographic equilibrium to another. There has been some discussion concerning what is meant by equilibrium. Originally equilibrium was intended as stability in total population brought about by equality of birth and death rates, and it is in this sense that the expression is used in this paper. Lately, however, the demographic equilibrium is meant to signify stability of the growth rate over time. See W. C. Robinson, “The Development of Modern Population Theory,”American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 23 (1964), pp. 376–92, and K. Mayer, “Fertility Changes and Population Forecast in the United States,”Social Research, 26 (1959), p. 347.
See W. A. Lewis,Theory of Economic Growth (London: G. Allen and Unwin, 1963), p. 306 ff., where stages and factors of the decline in death rates are discussed. See also K. Davis, “The Amazing Decline in Mortality in Underdeveloped Areas,”American Economic Review, 46 (1956), pp. 305–18.
Cf. H. Leibenstein,Economic Backwardness and Economic Growth (New York City: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1963), p. 159–65; R. E. Weintraub, “The Birth Rate and Economic Development: An Empirical Study,”Econometrica, 40 (1962), pp. 812–17; also Robinson,op. cit., p. 387 ff.
Coale,op. cit., p. 12.
The applicability of the transition theory to underdeveloped areas is discussed in I. B. Tauber, “The Future of Transitional Areas,” in P. Hatt ed.,World Population and Future Resources (New York City: American Book Co., 1952).
The following example is reported in “World Population and Resources,” a report by Political and Economic Planning (PEP) (London: G. Allen and Unwin, 1962), p. 12, “In Ceylon to quote an extreme but illuminating case ... the malarial mosquito has been wiped out by DDT and deaths fell from 22 to 12 per 1000 in the seven years from 1945 to 1952, a fall which took seventy years in England and Wales.”
See R. Pearl,Studies in Human Biology (Baltimore: William and Wilkins Co., 1924); —The Biology of Population Growth (New York City: Alfred A. Knopf, Inc., 1925);—The Natural History of Population (London: Oxford University Press, 1939); Robinson,op. cit., p. 380 ff.; M. Boldrini, in Giuffre ed.,Demografia (Milano, 1956), p. 376, ff.; S. Vianelli,Problemi di Dinamica Economica (Bologna: L. Cappelli, 1936), p. 260 ff.
S. Kuznets wrote inModern Economic Growth (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966), p. 41, “In the early eighteenth century death rates, even in the European countries was 30 per thousand or more... By the 1950's, crude death rates were in the neighborhood of 10 per thousand in the developed countries.”
This figure is taken from W. Fucks,Formeln Zur Macht (Stuttgart: Deutche Verlag Anstalt, 1965), p. 45. See also, D. W. Michaels, “Formulas for Power, A Review ofFormeln zur Macht,” The Professional Geographer, 18 (1966), pp. 305–10. For alternative estimates of the population increase in European countries from 1750–1950, see Kuznets,op. cit., p. 36.
Kuznets,op. cit., wrote in, “In the early eighteenth century death rates, even in the European countries was 30 per thousand or more... By the 1950's, crude death rates were in the neighborhood of 10 per thousand in the developed countries.” p. 47.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Casetti, E. A formalization of the demographic transition theory. Papers of the Regional Science Association 21, 159–164 (1968). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01952726
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01952726