Abstract
We used an individual-based forest simulator (a gap model) to assess the potential effects of anthropogenic climatic change on conifer forests of the Pacific Northwestern United States. Steady-state simulations suggested that forest zones could be shifted on the order of 500–1000 m in elevation, which could lead to the local extirpation of some high-altitude species. For low-elevation sites, species which currently are more abundant hundreds of kilometers to the south would be favored under greenhouse scenarios. Simulations of transient responses suggested that forest stands could show complex responses depending on initial species composition, stand age and canopy development, and the magnitude and duration of climatic warming. Assumptions about species response to temperature, which are crucial to the model's behaviors, were evaluated using data on species temperature limits inferred from regional distributions. The high level of within-species variability in these data, and other confounding factors influencing species distributions, argue against over-interpreting simulations. We suggest how we might resolve critical uncertainties with further research.
Article PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.
References
Agren, G. I., McMurtrie, R. E., Parton, W. J., Pastor, J., and Shugart, H. H.: 1991, ‘State-of-the-Art Models of Production-Decomposition Linkages in Conifer and Grassland Ecosystems’,Ecol. Applic. 1, 118–138.
Austin, M. P. and Smith, T. M.: 1989, ‘A New Model for the Continuum Concept’,Vegetatio 83, 35–47.
Bonan, G. B. and Sirois, L.: 1992, ‘Air Temperature, Tree Growth, and the Northern and Southern Range Limits toPicea mariana’,J. Veg. Sci. 3, 495–506.
Botkin, D. B. and Nisbet, R. A.: 1992, ‘Forest Response to Climatic Change: Effects of Parameter Estimation and Choice of Weather Patterns on the Reliability of Projections’,Clim. Change 20, 87–111.
Botkin, D. B., Janak, J. F., and Wallis, J. R.: 1972a, ‘Rationale, Limitations, and Assumptions of a Northeastern Forest Growth Simulator’,IBM J. Res. Develop. 16, 101–116.
Botkin, D. B., Janak, J. F., and Wallis, J. R.: 1972b, ‘Some Ecological Consequences of a Computer Model of Forest Growth’,J. Ecol. 60, 849–873.
Dale, V. H. and Franklin, J. F.: 1989, ‘Potential Effects of Climate Change on Stand Development in the Pacific Northwest’,Can. J. For. Res. 19, 1581–1590.
Dale, V. H. and Hemstrom, M. A.: 1984, ‘CLIMACS: A Computer Model of Forest Stand Development for Western Oregon and Washington’, USDA For. Serv. Research Paper PNW-327.
Davis, M. B. and Botkin, D. B.: 1985, ‘Sensitivity of Cool-Temperate Forests and Their Fossil Pollen Record to Rapid Temperature Change’,Quat. Res. 23, 327–340.
Davis, M. B., Woods, K. D., Webb, S. L., and Futyma, R. P.: 1986, ‘Dispersal versus Climate: Expansion ofFagus andTsuga into the Upper Great Lakes Region’,Vegetatio 67, 93–103.
Emanuel, W. R., Shugart, H. H., and Stevenson, M. L.: 1985, ‘Climatic Change and the Broad-Scale Distribution of Terrestrial Ecosystem Complexes’,Clim. Change 7, 29–43.
Franklin, J. F. and Dyrness, C. T.: 1973,Natural Vegetation of Oregon and Washington, USDA For, Service Publ. PNW-8, reissued by Oregon State Univ. Press, Corvallis (1988).
Franklin, J. F., Swanson, F. J., Harmon, M. E., Perry, D. A., Spies, T. A., Dale, V. H., McKee, A., Ferrell, W. K., Gregory, S. V., Lattin, J. D., Schowalter, T. D., Larsen, D., and Means, J. E.: 1991, ‘Effects of Global Climate Change on Forests in Northwestern North America’,Northwest Environm. J. 7, 233–254.
Graumlich, L. J.: 1989, ‘The Utility of Long-Term Records of Tree Growth for Improving Forest Stand Simulation Models’, in Malanson, G. P. (ed.),Natural Areas Facing Climate Change, SPB Academic Publ., The Hague, pp. 39–49.
Hansen, J., Russell, G., Rind, D., Stone, P., Lacis, A., Lebedeff, S., Ruedy, R., and Travis, L.: 1983, ‘Efficient Three-Dimensional Global Models for Climate Studies: Models I and II’,Mon. Wea. Rev. 3, 609–662.
Hawk, G. M., Long, J. N., and Franklin, J. F.: 1982, ‘Relations between Vegetation and Environment’, in Edmonds, R. L. (ed.),Analysis of Coniferous Forest Ecosystems in the Western United States, US/IBP Synthesis Series 14, Hutchinson Ross, Stroudsburg, PA, pp. 28–44.
Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (eds.): 1990,Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge.
Huston, M. A. and Smith, T. M.: 1987, ‘Plant Succession: Life History and Competition’,Am. Nat. 130, 168–198.
Keane, R. E., Arno, S. F., and Brown, J. K.: 1990, ‘Simulating Cumulative Fire Effects in Ponderosa Pine/Douglas-Fir Forests’,Ecology 71, 189–203.
Kercher, J. R. and Axelrod, M. C. X.: 1984, ‘A Process Model of Fire Ecology and Succession on Mixed-Conifer Forest’,Ecology 65, 1725–1742.
Lavender, D. P. and Overton, W. S.: 1972, ‘Thermoperiods and Soil Temperatures as They Affect Growth and Dormancy of Douglas-Fir Seedlings of Different Geographic Origin’, Res. Paper 13, For. Res. Lab, Oregon State Univ., Corvallis.
Leverenz, J. W. and Lev, D. J.: 1987, ‘Effects of Carbon Dioxide-Induced Climate Changes on the Natural Ranges of Six Major Commercial Tree Species in the Western United States’, in Shands, W. E. and Hoffman, J. S. (eds.),The Greenhouse Effect, Climate Change, and U.S. Forests, Conservation Foundation, Washington, pp. 123–155.
Melillo, J. M., Callaghan, T. V., Woodward, F. I., Salatiand, E., and Sinha, S. K.: 1990, ‘Effects on Ecosystems’, in Houghton, J. T., Jenkins, G. J., and Ephraums, J. J. (eds.),Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp. 283–310.
Minore, D.: 1979, ‘Comparative Autecological Characteristics of Northwestern Tree Species - A Literature Review’, For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-87, Pac. Northwest For. and Range Expt. Station, Portland, OR.
Overpeck, J. T., Rind, D., and Goldberg, R.: 1990, ‘Climate-Induced Changes in Forest Disturbance and Vegetation’,Nature 343, 51–53.
Pastor, J. and Post, W. M.: 1985, ‘Development of a Linked Forest Productivity-Soil Process Model’, ORNL/TM-9519, Environmental Sciences, Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN.
Pastor, J. and Post, W. M.: 1986, ‘Influence of Climate, Soil Moisture, and Succession on Forest Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles’,Biogeochemistry 2, 3–27.
Pastor, J. and Post, W. M.: 1988, ‘Response of Northern Forests to CO2-Induced Climate Change’,Nature 334, 55–58.
Perry, D. A., Borchers, J. G., Borchers, S. L., and Amaranthus, M. P.: 1990, ‘Species Migration and Ecosystem Stability during Climate Change: The Below-Ground Connection’,Conserv. Biol. 4, 266–274.
Peters, R. L. and Darling, J. D.: 1985, ‘The Greenhouse Effect and Nature Reserves’,BioScience 35, 707–717.
Running, S. W., Nemani, R. R., and Hungerford, R. D.: 1987, ‘Extrapolation of Synoptic Meteorological Data in Mountainous Terrain and Its Use for Simulating Forest Evapotranspiration and Photosynthesis’,Can. J. For. Res. 17, 472–483.
Schlesinger, M. E. and Zhao, Z. C.: 1989, ‘Seasonal Climatic Change Introduced by Doubled CO2 as Simulated by the OSU GCM/Mixed-Layer Ocean Model’,J. Clim. 2, 429–495.
Shugart, H. H.: 1984,A Theory of Forest Dynamics, Springer-Verlag, New York.
Shugart, H. H. and West, D. C.: 1980, ‘Forest Succession Models’,BioScience 30, 308–313.
Smith, J. B., and Tirpak, D. A. (eds.): 1989,The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the U.S., Appendix D - Forests, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, U.S. EPA, Washington.
Smith, T. M. and Huston, M.: 1989, ‘A Theory of the Spatial and Temporal Dynamics of Plant Communities’,Vegetatio 83, 49–69.
Solomon, A. M.: 1986, ‘Transient Response of Forests to CO2-Induced Climate Change: Simulation Modeling Experiments in Eastern North America’,Oecologia 68, 567–579.
Solomon, A. M., Tharp, M. L., West, D. C., Taylor, G. E., Webb, J. M., and Trimble, J. C.: 1984, ‘Response of Unmanaged Forests to CO2-Induced Climate Change: Available Information, Initial Tests, and Data Requirements’, U.S. Dept. of Energy, Washington, DC.
Thornthwaite, C. W. and Mather, J. R.: 1957, ‘Instructions and Tables for Computing Potential Evapotranspiration and the Water Balance’,Publicat. Climatol. 10, 183–311.
Urban, D. L.: ‘Using Gap Models to Assess Forest Response to Climatic Change: A Stocktaking’, (ms in review).
Urban, D. L.: 1990, ‘A Versatile Model to Simulate Forest Pattern: A User's Guide to ZELIG Version 1.0’, Environmental Sciences, Univ. Virginia, Charlottesville.
Urban, D. L. and Shugart, H. H.: 1989, ‘Forest Response to Climatic Change: A Simulation Study for Southeastern Forests’, in Smith, J. B. and Tirpak, D. A. (eds.),The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the U.S., Appendix D - Forests, U.S. EPA, Washington.
Urban, D. L. and Shugart, H. H.: 1992, ‘Individual-Based Models of Forest Succession’, in Glenn-Lewin, D. C., Peet, R. K., and Veblen, T. T. (eds.),Plant Succession: Theory and Prediction, Chapman and Hall, pp. 249–292.
Urban, D. L., Smith, T. M., and Shugart, H. H.: 1989, ‘Forest Response to Environmental Change: A Factorial Model’,Studies Plant Ecol. 18, 47–49.
Waring, R. H. and Franklin, J. F.: 1979, ‘Evergreen Forests of the Pacific Northwest’,Science 204, 1380–1386.
Zobel, D. B., McKee, A., Hawk, G. M., and Dyrness, C. T.: 1976, ‘Relationships of Environment to Composition, Structure, and Diversity of Forest Communities of the Central Western Cascades of Oregon’,Ecol. Monogr. 46, 135–156.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Urban, D.L., Harmon, M.E. & Halpern, C.B. Potential response of pacific northwestern forests to climatic change, effects of stand age and initial composition. Climatic Change 23, 247–266 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091618
Received:
Revised:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01091618