Abstract
Global surface temperature was a record in 1988. What is the probability that this record will be surpassed in the next few years? Answers are provided given a variety of simple statistical models for temperature. The answers illustrate how record breaking is influenced by alternative model specifications. Estimates for the probability of a record are shown to range widely. If annual temperature is independent and identically distributed then a new record is unlikely. But probabilities increase rapidly if there is a trend or autocorrelation. Estimates of the probability of a record using data on global temperature suggest that another record in the next few years would not be a rare event.
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After the original version of this paper was completed it was reported that a new temperature record was set in 1990; Science (1991).
This research was done while visiting at Argonne National Laboratory. I have benefitted from discussions with Mark Fernau and Mo Yin Tam. I would like to thank S. Lebedeff for providing the temperature data. I also want to thank a referee for numerous helpful suggestions.
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Bassett, G.W. Breaking recent global temperature records. Climatic Change 21, 303–315 (1992). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139729
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139729