Network Orientors: Theoretical and Philosophical Considerations why Ecosystems may Exhibit a Propensity to Increase in Ascendency

Abstract

Three disparate metaphors have dominated the discourse on ecosystem dynamics: The ecosystem as (1) machine, (2) organism, or (3) stochastic assemblage. Motivated, in part, by ambiguities of this nature, Karl Popper suggested the notion of “propensity” to generalize the Newtonian concept of force. Using propensities one can articulate a theory of ecosystem development that encompasses all three analogies. Probabilistic indices borrowed from information theory can be used to quantify the degree of trophic constraint operating in an ecosystem, the amount of flexibility available for it to adapt to new circumstances, and, ultimately, the propensity for each transfer to occur. Consequently, the ascendency of an ecosystem may be defined as the flow-averaged system level propensity for activity. Under this rubric, the observed propensity for ascendency to increase over time becomes the probabilistic counterpart for living systems to Newton’s second law in mechanics.