Abstract
In this paper, a statistical test based on a randomization procedure is discussed with regard to the hypothesis that a spatial cluster or hot spot exists. Clusters or “hot spots” represent a greater degree of a specified activity in a region than one would expect by chance. The test can be practically applied in a number of areas where the identification of a cluster may lead to a further understanding of the phenomena’s behavior. In particular, the procedure is well-suited for the identification of disease clusters where sample data may be very large and deviate appreciably from normal form. Paelinck, in his pioneering work on spatial econometrics, made clear that randomization tests possess properties of great power, consistency, and unbiasedness when normal-theory assumptions are true and are statistically efficient for distribution-free situations.
“...randomization tests appear to be superior or equal to their parametric counterparts in most cases.”
Jean H. P. Paelinck, Leo H. Klassen, Spatial Econometric, 1979, p. 87
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aldrich, M.R., S.F. Payne, S.M. Little, J. Mandel, and H.W. Feldman. (1990). “Classic epidemiological mapping of AIDS among San Francisco drug injectors, 1987–1989.” VI International Conference on AIDS, San Francisco, 20–24 June, Abstract Th.C. 705.
Anselin, L. (1995). “Local indicators of spatial association — LISA.” Geographical Analysis, 27, 93–115.
Besag, J. and J. Newell. (1991). “The detection of clusters in rare diseases.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 154, 143–55.
California Department of Health Services, Office of AIDS. California AIDS Update, 1988–1990, California HIV/AIDS Update, 1990-1994.
Cliff, A.D., P. Haggett, J.K. Ord, and G.R. Versey. (1981). Spatial Diffusion. London: Cambridge University Press.
Department of Health Services, Office of AIDS, California HIV/AIDS Update, Vol. 8, No. 2, April 1995.
Gardner, Jr., L.I, J.F. Brundage, D.S. Burke, J.G. McNeil, R. Visintine, and R.N. Miller. (1989). “Spatial diffusion of the human immunodeficiency virus infection epidemic in the United States, 1985–87.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 79, 1, 25–43.
Getis, A. (1995). “Spatial filtering in a regression framework: experiments on regional inequality, government expenditutres, and urban crime.” In New Directions in Spatial Econometrics, edited by L. Anselin and R. Florax, pp. 172–185. Amsterdam: North Holland.
Getis, A. and J.K. Ord. (1992). “The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics.” Geographical Analysis, 24, 189–206.
Golub, A., W.L. Gorr, and P.R. Gould. (1993). “Spatial diffusion of the HIV/AIDS epidemic: modeling implications and case study of AIDS incidence in Ohio.” Geographical Analysis, 25, 85–100.
Gould, P.R. (1993). The Slow Plague: A Geography of the AIDS Pandemic. Oxford: Blackwell.
Marshall, R.J. (1991). “A review of methods for the statistical analysis of spatial patterns of disease.” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 154, Part 3, 421–41.
Ord, J.K. and A. Getis. (1995). “Local spatial autocorrelation statistics: distributional issues and an application.” Geographical Analysis, 27, 286–306.
Paelinck J.H.P. and L.H. Klassen. (1979). Spatial Econometrics. Westmead, England: Saxon House.
Shannon, G., G. Pyle, and R. Bashshur. (1990). The Geography of AIDS. New York: Guilford Press.
Smallman-Raynor, M., A.D. Cliff, and P. Haggett. (1992). Atlas of AIDS, Oxford: Basil Blackwell International.
Stone, R.A (1988). “Investigations of excess environmental risks around putative sources: statistical problems and a proposed test.” Statistics in Medicine, 7, 649–60.
Thomas, R.W. (1994). “Forecasting global HIV-AIDS dynamics: modelling strategies and preliminary simulations.” Environment and Planning A, 26, 1147–66.
Waller, L.A, B.W. Turnbull, L.C. Clark, and P. Nasca. (1992). “Chronic disease surveillance and testing of clustering of disease and exposure: application to leukemia incidence and TCE-contaminated dumpsites in upstate New York.” Environmetrics, 3, 281–300.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1998 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Getis, A., Ord, J.K. (1998). Spatial Modelling of Disease Dispersion Using a Local Statistic: The Case of AIDS. In: Griffith, D.A., Amrhein, C.G., Huriot, JM. (eds) Econometric Advances in Spatial Modelling and Methodology. Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, vol 35. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2899-6_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2899-6_12
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-1-4419-4788-8
Online ISBN: 978-1-4757-2899-6
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive