Abstract
In the wake of the economic problems of Western countries which have persisted since the mid-1970s, the long-wave hypothesis has regained increasing significance as an interpretation of long-run economic development. During the 1950s and 1960s long cyclical movements in capitalist economies played only a minor role in economics. Yet, when the growth trend broke in the 1970s, and phases of negative growth followed, the confidence with which the economists had explained growth cycles as a new form of business fluctuations had gone. The (old) business cycle was back. After more than twenty years of more-or-less sustained growth during the 1950s and 1960s, and a prolonged phase of relative stagnation, it is necessary to extend our research perspective beyond the time frame of the business cycle.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
Adelman, I. (1965) ‘Long Cycles — Fact or Artifact?’, American Economic Review, vol. 60, pp. 444–63.
Broder, A. (1981) ‘Okonomische Zyklen in Ländern der Europäischen Peripherie: Die iberische Halbinsel 1820–1923’ in F. Fröbel, J. Heinrich and O. Kreye (eds), Krisen in der kapitalistischen Weltökonomie (Reinbek: Rowohlt) pp. 153–167.
Dupriez, L. H. (1963) ‘Der “Kondratieff” in der Konjunkturentwicklung seit 1945’, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, vol. 93, pp. 262–77.
Ewijk, C. van (1982) ‘A Spectral Analysis of the Kondratieff-Cycle’, Kyklos, vol. 35, pp. 468–99.
Fishman, G. S. (1969) Spectral Methods in Econometrics (Cambridge University Press).
Gerster, H. J. (1984) Flexibilitat und Rigiditat in der Preisbewegung. Empirische Untersuchung zum pround kontrazyklischen Preisverhalten für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland im Zeitraum 1949–1978 an Hand der Grundstoffpreise, Erzeugerpreise, Großhandelsund Einzelhandelspreise (Frankfurt-am-Main, Bern, New York: Peter Lang).
— (1988) Lange Wellen wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung. Empirische Analyse langfristiger Zyklen für die USA, Großbritannien und weitere 14 Industrieländer von 1800–1980 (Frankfurt-am-Main, Bern, New York, Paris: Peter Lang).
Goodman, N. R. (1961) ‘Some Comments on Spectral Analysis of Time Series’, Technometrics, vol. 3, pp. 221–8.
Granger, C. W. J. and M. Hatanaka (1964) Spectral Analysis of Economic Time Series (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press).
Hatanaka, M. and E. P. Howrey (1969) ‘Low Frequency Variation in Economic Time Series’, Kyklos, vol. 29, pp. 752–66.
Jenkins G. M. and D. G. Watts (1968) Spectral Analysis and its Applications (San Francisco).
Kondratieff, N. D. (1926) ‘Die langen Wellen der Konjunktur’, Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, vol. 56, pp. 573–609.
Kondratieff, N. D. (1928) ‘Die Preisdynamik der industriellen und landwirtschaftlichen Waren (zum Problem der relativen Dynamik der Konjunktur)’ in Archiv für Sozialwissenschaft und Sozialpolitik, vol. 60 (Tübingen, 1928).
Metz, R. (1984) ‘Zur empirischen Evidenz “langer Wellen“’, Kyklos, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 266–90.
Rostow, W. W. (1975) ‘Kondratieff, Schumpeter and Kuznets: Trend Periods Revisited’, Journal of Economic History, vol. 35, pp. 719ff.
Schulte, H. (1978) Statistisch-methodische Untersuchungen zum Problem langer Wellen (Dissertation, Ph.D. thesis, University of Bochum).
Schumpeter, J. A. (1939) Business Cycles (New York: McGraw-Hill).
Slutzky, E. (1937) ‘The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclical Processes’, Econometrica, vol. 5, pp. 105–46.
Stier, W. (1976), ‘Die langen Wellen der Konjunktur’, Wirtschaftsdienst vol. 12, pp. 637–9.
— (1980) Verfahren zur Analyse saisonaler Schwankungen in ökonomischen Zeitreihen (Berlin Heidelberg New York: Springer).
— (1981) ‘Saisonschwankungen’, Handwörterbuch der Wirtschaftswissenschaften, vol. 6 (Stuttgart, New York), pp. 535 ff.
Stolper, W. F. (1982) ‘Schumpeters Theorie der Innovation’, Ifo Studien, pp. 261 ff.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Copyright information
© 1992 Alfred Kleinknecht, Ernest Mandel and Immanuel Wallerstein
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Gerster, H.J. (1992). Testing Long Waves in Price and Volume Series from Sixteen Countries. In: Kleinknecht, A., Mandel, E., Wallerstein, I. (eds) New Findings in Long-Wave Research. Palgrave Macmillan, London. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-22450-0_5
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-22450-0_5
Publisher Name: Palgrave Macmillan, London
Print ISBN: 978-1-349-22452-4
Online ISBN: 978-1-349-22450-0
eBook Packages: Palgrave Economics & Finance CollectionEconomics and Finance (R0)