Abstract
Medical decision making frequently requires the effective management and communication of uncertainty and risk. However a tension exists between classical probability theory, which is precise and rigorous but which people find non-intuitive and difficult to use, and qualitative approaches which are ad hoc but can be more versatile and easily comprehensible. In this paper we review a range of approaches to uncertainty management, then describe a logical approach, argumentation, which subsumes qualitative as well as quantitative representations and has a clear formal semantics. The approach is illustrated and evaluated in five decision support applications.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Kahneman D., Slovic P. and Tversky A. (eds): Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (1982)
Evans J. st B. and Over D.E.: Rationality and reasoning. Psychology press, London (1996)
Wright G. and Ayton P. (eds): Subjective Probability. Wiley, Chichester, UK (1994)
Gigerenzer G. and Todd P.M.: Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford University Press, Oxford (1999)
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A.: Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, Vol. 185, 27 (1974) pp. 1124–1131.
Lindley DV.: Making Decisions (2nd Edition). Wiley, Chichester, UK (1985)
Shanteau, J.: Psychological characteristics of expert decision makers. In, J Mumpower (ed) Expert judgement and expert systems. NATO ASI Series, volume F35 (1987)
Carpenter R G, Garnder A, McWeeny P M. and Emery J L.: Multistage scoring system for identifying infants at risk of unexpected death. Archives of disease in childhood, 53(8), (1977) pp.600–612
Fox J. Barber DC. and Bardhan KD.: Alternatives to Bayes? A quantitative comparison with rule-based diagnosis. Methods of Information in Medicine, 10(4) (1980) pp.210–215
Fox, J. Myers CD., Greaves MF. and Pegram S.: Knowledge acquisition for expert systems: experience in leukaemia diagnosis. Methods of Information in Medicine, 24(1) (1985) pp.65–72
O’Neil MJ. and Glowinski AJ.: Evaluating and validating very large knowledge-based systems. Medical Informatics, 15(3) (1990) pp.237–251
Pradhan M.: The sensitivity of belief networks to imprecise probabilities: an experimental investigation. Artificial Intelligence Journal, 84(1-2) (1996) pp.365–397
Krause P. and Clark C.: Uncertainty and Subjective Probability in AI Systems In Wright G & Ayton P (Eds) Subjective Probability, Wiley J & Sons (1994) pp.501–527
Hunter, A. and Parsons, S. (Editors) Applications of uncertainty formalisms, Springer Verlag, LNAI 1455, (1998)
Cohen P.R.: Heuristic Reasoning: An Artificial Intelligence Approach. Pitman Advanced Publishing Program, Boston (1985)
Fox J.: On the necessity of probability: Reasons to believe and grounds for doubt. In Wright G, Ayton, P, eds., Subjective Probability. John Wiley, Chichester (1994)
Fox J, Krause P. and Ambler S.: Arguments, contradictions and practical reasoning. In Neumann B, ed. Proceedings of the 10th European Conference on AI (ECAI92), Vienna, Austria (1992) pp.623–627
Curley SP. and Benson PG.: Applying a cognitive perspective to probability construction. In G Wright & P Ayton (eds.), Subjective Probability. John Wiley & Sons. Chichester, England (1994) pp. 185–209
Fox J. and Das S K.: Safe and Sound: Artificial Intelligence in Hazardous Applications, American Association of Artificial Intelligence and MIT Press (2000)
Tonnelier CAG., Fox J., Judson P., Krause P., Pappas N. and Patel M.: Representation of Chemical Structures in Knowledge-Based Systems. J. Chem. Inf. Sci. 37 (1997) pp.117–123.
Elvang-Goransson M, Krause P.J and Fox J.: Acceptability of Arguments as Logical Uncertainty. In: Clarke M, Kruse R and Moral S, eds. Symbolic and Quantitative Approaches to Reasoning and Uncertainty. Proceedings of European Conference ECSQARU93. Lecture Notes in Computer Science 747. Springer-Verlag (1993) pp.85–90.
Glasspool DW. and Fox J.: Understanding probability words by constructing concrete mental models. In Hahn M, Stoness, SC, eds, Proceedings of the 21st Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society (1999) pp.185–190
Walton RT, Gierl C, Yudkin P, Mistry H, Vessey MP & Fox J.: Evaluation of computer support for prescribing (CAPSULE) using simulated cases. British Medical Journal 315 (1997) pp.791–795.
Emery J, Watson E, Rose P and Andermann, A. A systematic review of the literature exploring the role of primary care in genetic services. Fam. Prac. 16 (1999) pp.426–45.
Coulson AS, Glasspool DW, Fox J and Emery J. Computerized Genetic Risk Assessment from Family Pedigrees. MD computing, in press.
Emery J., Walton, R., Murphy, M., Austoker, J., Yudkin, P., Chapman, C., Coulson, A., Glasspool, D. and Fox, J.: Computer support for interpreting family histories of breast and ovarian cancer in primary care: comparative study with simulated cases. British Medical Journal, 321 (2000) pp.28–32.
Claus E, Schildkraut J, Thompson WD and Risch, N. The genetic attributable risk of breast and ovarian cancer. Cancer 1996; 77, pp. 2318–24.
Taylor, P, Fox J and Todd-Pokropek, A “The development and evaluation of CADMIUM: a prototype system to assist in the interpretation of mammograms” Medical Image Analysis, 1999, 3(4), 321–337.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2001 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Fox, J., Glasspool, D., Bury, J. (2001). Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches to Reasoning Under Uncertainty in Medical Decision Making. In: Quaglini, S., Barahona, P., Andreassen, S. (eds) Artificial Intelligence in Medicine. AIME 2001. Lecture Notes in Computer Science(), vol 2101. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-48229-6_39
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-48229-6_39
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-42294-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-48229-1
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive