Abstract
As the linchpin of future stability in Northeast Asia and dictator of the security posture of the peninsula, the actions of North Korea (DPRK) have immense implications for China’s national security and the broader security environment in the region. Beyond the two states on either side of the 38th parallel, China is the most important stakeholder in the final outcome of issues on the Korean peninsula, and thus will continue to be an indispensable actor in any future solution to denuclearization and unification. China’s willingness to play a positive role in finding a solution amenable to all parties will, in large part, depend on Beijing’s cost-benefit analysis of North Korea’s value to China, which, in turn, ultimately rests on the Chinese leadership’s assessment of the security implications of North Korea’s behavior for China. These implications can be divided into direct and indirect, as well as both positive and negative aspects, for China’s leaders to factor into their decision-making process. This chapter will address the security side of the Sino-North Korean relationship by focusing on the rationale behind China’s policy; the growing domestic debate over that policy; the evolving security implications of the policy; and how these changes may affect China’s policy going forward.
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Notes
China and North Korea fought several small border skirmishes in 1968 and 1969. See Daniel Goma, “The Chinese-Korean Border Issue: An Analysis of a Contested Frontier,” Asian Survey 46 (2006), 877.
Adam Cathcart, “China’s Evolving Relationship with North Korea,” International Institute for Strategic Studies, London, Presentation, July 9, 2013.
Xi Jinping is officially the leader of the FALSG, but Yang serves as director and manages its day-to-day affairs. See Linda Jakobson and Dean Knox, New Actors in Chinese Foreign Policy, Rep. (Solna: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2010), 5.
Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt, “China’s North Korea Policy: Backtracking from Sunnylands?” 38 North, July 2, 2013, http://38north.org/2013/07/skahlbrandt070213.
While the cost of increasing BMD assets in Asia, estimated at USD one billion, was likely prohibitively high, US government officials are very aware of the impact of BMD deployment on China’s sense of security, and have discussed this thought process publicly. See Thom Shanker, David E. Sanger, and Martin Fackler, “U.S. Is Bolstering Missile Defense to Deter North Korea,” New York Times, March 15, 2013, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/16/world/asia/us-to-bolster-missile-defense-against-north-korea.html. See also Jeffrey A. Bader, Obama and China’s Rise: An Insider’s Account of America’s Asia Strategy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2012), 38.
For a discussion of how China’s policy may change, see Zhu Feng and Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga, “Chinese Policy toward North Korea in the Post-Kim Jong-il Era,” Korea Review 2 (2012).
Zhu Feng, “Flawed Mediation and a Compelling Mission: Chinese Diplomacy in the Six-Party Talks to Denuclearise North Korea,” East Asia 28 (2011), 198.
For a recent discussion of China’s imperial history in Asia and the Korean peninsula, see Odd Arne Westad, Restless Empire: China and the World Since 1750 (New York: Basic Books, 2012).
For a classic discussion of China’s decision to enter the Korean War, see Chen Jian, China’s Road to the Korean War: The Making of the Sino-American Confrontation (New York: Columbia University Press, 1994).
For a discussion of China’s treaty with North Korea see, Bonnie S. Glaser and Brittany Billingsley, Reordering Chinese Priorities on the Korean Peninsula (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2012), http://csis.org/files/publication/121217_Glaser_ReOrderingChinese_web.pdf.
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Many observers assume the United States would be willing to consider an agreement with China to keep troops below the 38th parallel. See Gregory Marcis, “China on Korean Reunification: Spoiler, Beneficiary, or Something in Between?” Lucent [U.S. Navy War College] 10 (2013), 30, http://www.usnwc.edu/Lucent/OpenPdf.aspx?id=156&Title=Introspection.
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Andrew Scobell, China and North Korea: From Comrades-In-Arms to Allies at Arm’s Length (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2004), 19, www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub373.pdf. See also: Bonnie Glaser, Scott Snyder, and John S. Park, Keeping an Eye on an Unruly Neighbor, Working Paper (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic Studies and International Studies, 2008), 9, www.usip.org/sites/default/files/resources/Jan2008.pdf.
Ji You, “China and North Korea: A Fragile Relationship of Strategic Convenience,” Journal of Contemporary China 10 (2001), 388.
Nicholas Khoo, “China Card Fails,” The World Today 62 (2006), 6, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/The%20World%20Today/2006/wt110605.pdf.
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Zhang Liangui, “Coping with a Nuclear North Korea,” China Security 3 (2006).
The most notable example of China’s willingness to follow its own interests independent of North Korea is China’s 1992 decision to establish diplomatic relations with South Korea. For a discussion of the decision-making process behind China’s recognition of South Korea, see Samuel S. Kim, “The Making of China’s Korea Policy in the Era of Reform,” in David M. Lampton (ed.), The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the Era of Reform, 1978–2000 (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2001), 371.
Carla Freeman and Drew Thompson, China on the Edge: China’s Border Provinces and Chinese Security Policy, (Washington, DC: Center for the National Interests and John Hopkins SAIS, 2011), 42, http://cftni.org/China_on_the_Edge_April_2011.pdf.
For the most recent effort to study North Korea’s illicit activities, see Sheena Chestnut Greitens, Illicit: North Korea’s Evolving Operations to Earn Hard Currency (Washington, DC: Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, April 15, 2014), http://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/SCG-FINAL-FINAL.pdf. See also Stephan Haggard, “Drug Update: The Chinese Connection,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, December 2, 2011, http://www.piie.com/blogs/nk/?p=4142. See also Zhang Yong-an, “Drug Trafficking from North Korea: Implications for Chinese Policy,” The Brookings Institution, December 3, 2010, http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2010/12/03-china-drug-trafficking-zhang; Isaac Stone Fish, “North Korea’s Meth Export,” Newsweek, June 19, 2011, http://www.newsweek.com/north-koreas-meth-export-67869.
Jennifer Lind and Bruce W. Bennett, “The Collapse of North Korea—Military Missions and Requirements,” International Security 36 (2011), 84–119.
Shen Dingli, “North Korea’s Strategic Significance to China,” China Security, Autumn (2006), 21.
Hillary Clinton, “America’s Pacific Century,” Foreign Policy, November, 2011, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/10/11/americas_pacific_century. For a recent critique, see, Robert S. Ross, “The Problem with the Pivot,” Foreign Affairs 91 (2012), 70–82.
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Feng, Z., Beauchamp-Mustafaga, N. (2015). North Korea’s Security Implications for China. In: Freeman, C.P. (eds) China and North Korea. International Relations and Comparisons in Northeast Asia. Palgrave Macmillan, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137455666_3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137455666_3
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