Abstract
Progress is steady and gradual as the agricultural and services sectors switch ranks. Global manufacturing holds its share steady except during the Soviet collapse.
The rate of change in agriculture correlates to changes in wealth, but predicting future trends based on historic data proves questionable. In a complete reversal from past decades, a falling manufacturing share correlates with rising wealth; the cause is rising productivity. Developing countries can benefit from shifting to manufacturing while advanced countries can benefit by shifting to services. A chart of structural shift can be used as an indicator of political stability. Similarities are revealed between the path of mature industrial economies and today’s rising stars. China’s current path bears a remarkable resemblance to that of Sweden’s of a century ago.
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Notes
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW/ countries/1W?display=graph (Accessed January 11, 2013).
Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, Summary of Food and Agricultural Statistics 2003, Rome, 2003; p. 69.
Ibid., p. 72.
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, International Accounts Products for Detailed Goods Trade Data. U.S. Trade in Goods (IDS-0008)http://www.bea.gov/international/detailed_trade_data.htm (Accessed January 6, 2013).
Ibid., pp. 10, 18, 19.
S. Kuznets, “Quantitative Aspects of the Economic Growth of Nations: II. Industrial Distribution of National Product and Labor Force,” Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 5, No. 4, Supplement (July 1957), p. 9.
J. P. Smits, P. J. Woltjer and D. Ma (2009), A Dataset on Comparative Historical National Accounts, ca. 1870–1950: A Time-Series Perspective, Groningen Growth and Development Centre Research Memorandum GD-107, Groningen: University of Groningen. http://www.rug.nl/research/ggdc/data/historicalnational-accounts (Accessed 12 February 2013).
The equation is y = 114.4 x-1.09.
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© 2013 Joe Atikian
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Atikian, J. (2013). Speeding Up, Slowing Down. In: Industrial Shift: The Structure of the New World Economy. Palgrave Pivot, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137340313_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137340313_4
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