Knowns and Unknowns: Identifying the Critical Spaces of the 2012 Elections

Abstract

The parameters of electoral performance are broadly known well in advance of an election. Relative party size (in terms of the vote share); poll ratings close to the election date; safe constituency outcomes; mutual stand-down (désistement) pacts in advance of legislative run-offs — all narrow the bounds of variation to the final electoral outcome. Subsequent chapters will explore each of these in detail, but using examples from previous French elections, this chapter studies the extent to which foundations to election outcomes were stable, and what these indicated the bases to the 2012 result would be. In particular, this chapter discusses theoretically the incorporation of increasingly salient macro socio-economic issues relating to the economic and debt crisis. These created a new set of external constraints on the formulation of credible presidential platforms by the major parties, but also affected the way voters assessed the state of the national economy and the extent to which the incumbent President should be held responsible for it.