Abstract
This research is done to demonstrate the applicability of machine learning models in automatic prediction of egg production in poultry farm systems. Unprocessed data were collected from a commercial egg farm daily over a period of one year. Other similar works require prior feature extraction by a poultry expert, and this method is dependent on time and expert knowledge. The present approach will help the administrator of the farm to track the egg production in the poultry farm system for the whole farm or a specific shed for better utility in ensuring sustainable supply chain management for the industry. The primary objective of automating this prediction system is to provide a more accurate, efficient, and reliable outcome. While developing this machine learning model for forecasting, we utilized the ARIMA model under time series analysis and it is implemented and coded in Python using various relevant libraries. The accuracy of the proposed model is 59.21% for monthly analysis.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Jacob JP, Wilson HR, Miles RD, Butcher GD, Mather FB (2014) Factors affecting egg production in backyard chicken flocks. US department of agriculture, UF/IFAS extension service, University of Florida, IFAS, Florida A & M University cooperative extension program, and boards of county commissioners cooperating. Nick T. Place, dean for UF/IFAS Extension (FACT SHEET PS-35FACT SHEET PS-35) http://edis.ifas.ufl.edu. Retrieved on 25(4):15
Ahmadi F, Rahimi F (2011) Factors affecting quality and quantity of egg production in laying hens: a review. World Appl Sci J 12(3):372–384
Hafez HM, Attia YA, Bovera F, Abd El-Hack ME, Khafaga AF, Oliveira de MC (2021) Influence of COVID-19 on the poultry production and environment. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28:44833–44844
Abdoli A, Murillo AC, Yeh CCM, Gerry AC, Keogh EJ (2018) Time series classification to improve poultry welfare. In: 2018 17TH IEEE international conference on machine learning and applications (ICMLA). IEEE. pp 635–642
Abdoli A, Murillo AC, Gerry AC, Keogh EJ (2019) Time series classification: lessons learned in the (literal) field while studying chicken behavior. In: 2019 IEEE international conference on big data (big data). IEEE, pp 5962–5964
Jiang W, Wang K, Lv Y, Guo J, Ni Z, Ni Y (2020) Time series based behavior pattern quantification analysis and prediction—a study on animal behavior. Physica A 540:122884
Herzen J, Lässig F, Piazzetta SG, Neuer T, Tafti L, Raille G, Van Pottelbergh T, Pasieka M, Skrodzki A, Huguenin N, Grosch G (2022). Darts: user-friendly modern machine learning for time series. J Mach Learn Res 23(124):1–6
Zaheer K (2015) An updated review on chicken eggs: production, consumption, management aspects and nutritional benefits to human health. Food Nutr Sci 6(13):1208
Gohain N, Bhangu PKS (2018) A temporal analysis on population and production of livestock sector in india with special reference to Punjab. Ind J Econom Dev 14(1a):388–394
Morales IR, Cebrián DR, Blanco EF, Sierra AP (2016) Early warning in egg production curves from commercial hens: a SVM approach. Comput Electron Agric 121:169–179
Gerber P, Opio C, Steinfeld H (2007) Poultry production and the environment–a review. An Prod Health Div Food Agricul Org United Nations, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla 153:1–27
Rasel HM, Al Mamun MA, Hasnat A, Alam S, Hossain I, Mondal RK, Good RZ, Alsukaibi AK, Awual MR (2023) Sustainable futures in agricultural heritage: geospatial exploration and predicting groundwater-level variations in Barind tract of Bangladesh. Sci Total Environ 865:161297
Said O (2023) A bandwidth control scheme for reducing the negative impact of bottlenecks in IoT environments: simulation and performance evaluation. Internet of Things 100682
Bhoite S, Ansari G, Patil CH, Thatte S, Magar V, Gandhi K (2022) Stock market prediction using recurrent neural network and long short-term memory. In: ICT infrastructure and computing: proceedings of ICT4SD 2022, Springer Nature Singapore, Singapore, pp 635–643
Bhoite S, Patil CH, Thatte S, Magar VJ, Nikam P (2023) A data-driven probabilistic machine learning study for placement prediction. In: 2023 international conference on intelligent data communication technologies and internet of things (IDCIoT). IEEE, pp 402–408
Savchenko TV, Kyashchenko LV, Tkacheva NV, Ulez’ko AV, Tyutyunikov AA, Reimer VV (2016) Forecasting the development of agriculture in the region on the basis of ARIMA model. Int J Pharm Technol 8(2):14069–14078
Azari A (2019) Bitcoin price prediction: an ARIMA approach. ArXiv preprint arXiv:1904.05315
Tandon H, Ranjan P, Chakraborty T, Suhag V (2022) Coronavirus (COVID-19): ARIMA-based time-series analysis to forecast near future and the effect of school reopening in India. J Health Manag 24(3):373–388
Mgaya JF (2019) Application of ARIMA models in forecasting livestock products consumption in Tanzania. Cogent Food Agricul 5(1):1607430
Noureen S, Atique S, Roy V, Bayne S (2019) Analysis and application of seasonal ARIMA model in energy demand forecasting: a case study of small scale agricultural load. In: 2019 IEEE 62nd international midwest symposium on circuits and systems (MWSCAS). IEEE, pp 521–524
Praveen B, Sharma P (2020) Climate variability and its impacts on agriculture production and future prediction using autoregressive integrated moving average method (ARIMA). J Public Aff 20(2):e2016
Xu D, Zhang Q, Ding Y, Zhang D (2022) Application of a hybrid ARIMA-LSTM model based on the SPEI for drought forecasting. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29(3):4128–4144
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to acknowledge Professor Supriya Aras and Professor Surabhi Thatte for guiding us in the implementation, Mr. Dnyanraj Dhamne and Ms. Namrata Dalai for helping us in the extraction and preprocessing of data.
We would also like to express our gratitude and acknowledge that the data used in this research project was provided by ‘Venky's India Pvt. Ltd’ purely for this study only (www.venkys.com).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2023 The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Tikiwala, V., Khule, S., Nadgauda, C., Thatte, S. (2023). Automatic Prediction of Egg Production in Poultry Farm System. In: Kumar, S., Hiranwal, S., Purohit, S., Prasad, M. (eds) Proceedings of International Conference on Communication and Computational Technologies. ICCCT 2023. Algorithms for Intelligent Systems. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3485-0_12
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3485-0_12
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-99-3484-3
Online ISBN: 978-981-99-3485-0
eBook Packages: Intelligent Technologies and RoboticsIntelligent Technologies and Robotics (R0)