Differences in the Economic Development of Civilizations from the Middle of the Twentieth Century

Abstract

This article deals with the study of the economic development of the main civilizations of the world since 1930 in terms of growth and risks. We used the root-mean-square deviation of the annual expansion rates of real GDP as a means of measuring the development risk. We suggested a definition of balanced development and determined its conservative and aggressive policies that demonstrate the minimum risks and maximum growth. We analyzed the development level of 62 countries over the last 10 global economy development cycles. For each period, we identified balanced development models. Balanced development cases were identified by groups, and their models were described as the most authentic for the respective cultures. The existence of a large economic cycle of 1930–1992 was proved. We determined that the next large economy cycle also began from the domination of the socialist institution development model. None of the civilizations featured market models of aggressive balanced development. We came to the following conclusions: institutions that facilitate balanced development vary across different civilization; culture is a criterion determining the selection of the most authentic institutional development model; the institutions of the global West are only successful if other countries use the institutional models that are not authentic for their cultures.