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Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis by Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere

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Intelligent Data Analytics for Decision-Support Systems in Hazard Mitigation

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Abstract

This chapter advances intelligent methodologies to study the modulation of cyclone genesis. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are hazardous weather elements with detrimental impacts on populations, wildlife, ecosystems, infrastructure, and the economy of developed as well as developing nations. Understanding the climatological behavior of TCs in relation to onsets, origin, and causal factors conductive to cyclogenesis can aid in the risk-management of cyclone vulnerability. This chapter studies the observed modulation of TC genesis in two study regions, namely the South Indian Ocean (SIO: 0–30° S, 30° E–130° E) and the South Pacific Ocean (SPO: 0–30° S, 130° E–130° W) was examined for the period 1980–2012. We define regional Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) indices based on the convective anomalies of large OLR variability centers, which exhibit a stronger modulation of the TC genesis than previously identified. Overall, an increase in the number of TC formations was recorded for the enhanced convective phase of the MJO compared to the dry phase. The modulation of TC genesis by MJO appeared to be pronounced with a ratio of 2:1 to the east of 70° E (for the SIO) and 7:1 to the west of 170° W (for the SPO). Stronger modulation in the latter region is attributable to (1) MJO-induced wind field impacts that were notably larger than the background mean flow, (2) TC genesis locations being consistent with MJO action centers, i.e., the TCs occur over the region of the MJO-induced low-level circulation with enhanced convection, and (3) TC genesis occurs in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), a region where MJO has a strong modulating effect. An analysis of large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic conditions demonstrated that low-level relative vorticity was strongly related to TC genesis modulation in both the SIO and SPO regions. However, the MJO appears to show little effect on TC genesis in the western SIO due to the existence of climatological conditions less conducive to TC formation throughout the cyclonic season. Finally, the chapter ascertains that TCs are generally produced further from the equatorial region in the southwest Indian zone where the MJO signal appears to be very weak.

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Abbreviations

ECMWF:

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

ENSO:

El-Niño Southern Oscillation

ITCZ:

Intertropical Convergence Zone

JTWC:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

HYCOM:

Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model

MJO:

Madden–Julian Oscillation

NCEP:

National Center for Environmental Prediction

NH:

Northern Hemisphere

OLR:

Outgoing Longwave Radiation

RH:

Relative Humidity

SH:

Southern Hemisphere

SIO:

South Indian Ocean

SPCZ:

South Pacific Convergence Zone

SPO:

South Pacific Ocean

SST:

Sea Surface Temperature

TC:

Tropical Cyclone

TRMM:

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission

U:

Zonal wind component

V:

Meridional wind component

WH04:

Wheeler and Hendon 2004

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Sandy Bay 7005, Hobart, TAS, Australia

    Kavina S. Dayal

  2. Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, USA

    Bin Wang

  3. School of Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Springfield Central, QLD, 4300, Australia

    Ravinesh C. Deo

Authors
  1. Kavina S. Dayal
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  2. Bin Wang
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  3. Ravinesh C. Deo
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kavina S. Dayal .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. School of Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Springfield Central, QLD, Australia

    Ravinesh C. Deo

  2. Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Patna, Patna, Bihar, India

    Pijush Samui

  3. Department of Civil Engineering, Ilia State University, Tbilisi, Georgia

    Ozgur Kisi

  4. Faculty of Civil Engineering, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Zaher Mundher Yaseen

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Dayal, K.S., Wang, B., Deo, R.C. (2021). Modulation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis by Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Southern Hemisphere. In: Deo, R., Samui, P., Kisi, O., Yaseen, Z. (eds) Intelligent Data Analytics for Decision-Support Systems in Hazard Mitigation. Springer Transactions in Civil and Environmental Engineering. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-5772-9_7

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