How can we feign sustainability with an increasing population?

Abstract

Attitudes of human societies toward tree plantations can be a critical factor in determining the source of wood supply in the future. Because human populations will expand substantially in the next century, considerable increases in the demands on native forests will occur. Currently, only a limited amount of tree plantations have been established specifically to provide firewood in developing countries. This may be the result, in part, of a world society that has evolved a general preference for pastures, but an aversion to tree plantations. In total, pastureland and tree plantations amount to 26 percent and 1 percent of the world’s land base, respectively. Nevertheless, our actions today will determine whether children in the future collect firewood from natural stands or from tree plantations. It is estimated that a substantial afforestation program could increase the amount of tree plantations to equal 5 percent of the world’s land base by the year 2050. Ten billion dollars (United States) is a rough estimate of the annual costs for such a program (assuming no overhead or administrative costs). Most of the wood needs could be met from tree plantations. However, if the world’s society wants most of its wood in 2050 to come from natural stands (>80 percent), then tree plantations can be limited to just 1 percent of the land base.