Value function models for expert panels

This chapter focuses on the aggregation of value function models for the members of an expert panel. Expert panels are necessary to avoid the possible bias in the responses of a single expert and to encompass the knowledge available from experts in the field. The aggregation of individual responses into a group or panel response is a problem common to a number of decision contexts. The critical role of this aspect and its intrinsic difficulties have prompted many scientists to investigate the theoretical and practical implications of aggregation methods. This chapter addresses a specific part of this large research domain. It refers to the mathematical aggregation of measurable value functions.

“When the ancient Greeks wanted to reduce their uncertainty about what the future held in store, they consulted the oracle at Delphi. Today we consult the high priests of science and technology. We call them experts. In this respect, the technology of forecasting the future has changed little during the past 2500 years. In contrast to their predecessor at Delphi, however, today ’s experts have the disconcerting habit of disagreeing, often sharply, in their vision of what the future holds in store ”(Fischer, 1981).