Abstract
Confirmation of global climatic change requires analysis of quasi-periodic processes which is usually performed by one-dimensional time-series analysis. In our paper, a two-dimensional spatial analysis in the form of kriging over a moving block of data as described in Journel and Rossi (Math Geology, Vol 21, N.7: 715–39) is applied to time series data. The analysis allows separation of seasonal quasi-periodicity from over-the-years time behaviour and is thus a powerful method for use in climatology or for application to other quasi-periodic time series. This has been achieved by introducing a new morphological transformation “montage”, which is an inverse operation to “stripe sampling” by Serra (1982).
The technique has been applied to a 100 year time series of rainfall data for Perth, Western Australia. It was found that the geostatistical method was capable not only of identifying a previously unreported 22 year (a double solar cycle) periodicity in rainfall, but also was able to predict, a year ahead, the heavy rainfall experienced in winter (May–August) 1991 in Perth.
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© 1993 Kluwer Academic Publishers
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Allison, H., Davis, G.B. (1993). Analysis of Quasi-Periodic Time Series by a Geostatistical Method with Application to Climatology. In: Soares, A. (eds) Geostatistics Tróia ’92. Quantitative Geology and Geostatistics, vol 5. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-1739-5_44
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-1739-5_44
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