Abstract
The present chapter provides guidance on procedural issues related to benefits assessment. The discussion considers how to exploit the entire set of benefits assessment techniques when commissioning analyses, defining their scope, and interpreting their results. It focuses on how to evaluate the definitiveness of an analysis and its contribution to policy making. Even a limited analysis of a difficult topic may be useful if its strengths and weaknesses are well understood. Even a polished analysis may be useless if it escapes peer review or avoids important but difficult issues.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ajzen, I. and M. Fishbein. 1977 ‘Attitude-Behavior Relations: A Theoretical Analysis and Review of Empirical Research.’ Psychological Bulletin 84: 888–918.
Beach, L. R. and T. R. Mitchell. 1978. ‘A Contingency Model for the Selection of Decision Strategies.’ Academy of Management Review 3: 439–449.
Behn, R. D. and J. W. Vaupel. 1983. Quick Analysis for Busy Decision Makers. New York: Basic Books.
Bell, D. 1982. ‘Regret in Decision Making under Uncertainty.’ Operations Research 30: 961–981.
Bradburn, N. M. and S. Sudman, 1979. Improving Interview Method and Questionnaire Design. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Brookshire, D. S., B. C. Ives, and W. D. Schulze. 1976. ‘The Valuation of Aesthetic Preferences.’ Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 3: 325–346.
Brown, R. V. 1975. Modeling Subsequent Acts for Decision Analysis. DDI Technical Report 75–1. McLean, Va.: Decisions and Designs, Inc.
Cohen, B. and W. Lee. 1979. ‘A Catalog of Risks.’ Health Physics 36: 707–722.
Cohen, J. and P. Cohen. 1975. Applied Multiple Regression/Correlation Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences. Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum.
Conn, W. D., ed. 1983. Conserving Energy and Material Resources. Boulder: Westview.
Coombs, C. H. 1964. A Theory of Data. New York: Wiley.
Crouch, E. A. C. and R. Wilson. 1982. Risk/Benefit Analysis. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger.
Dawes, R. M. 1979. ‘The Robust Beauty of Improper Linear Models in Decision Making.’ American Psychologist 34: 571–582.
Dawes, R. M, J. Delay, and W. Chaplin. 1976. ‘The Decision to Pollute.’ Environment and Planning 6: 3–10.
Derby, S. L. and R. L. Keeney. 1981. ‘Risk Analysis: Understanding “How Safe is Safe Enough?” ’ Risk Analysis 1: 217–224.
Derr, P., R. Goble, R. E. Kasperson, and R. W. Kates. 1983. ‘Responding to the Double Standard of Worker/Public Protection.’ Environment 25(6): 35–36.
Einhorn, H. J. and R. M. Hogarth. 1978. ‘Confidence in Judgment: Persistence of the Illusion of Validity.’ Psychological Review 86: 465–416.
Elliott, G. R. and C. Eisdorfer. 1982. Stress and Human Health. New York: Springer.
Ericsson, A. and H. Simon. 1980a. ‘Verbal Reports as Data.’ Psychological Review 87: 215–251.
Ericsson, A. and H. Simon. 1980b. Verbal Reports as Data. New York: Academic Press.
Evans, N. and C. W. Hope 1983. ‘Costs for Nuclear Accidents: Implications for Reactor Choice.’ Energy Policy 11: 215–304.
Feyerabend, P. 1975. Against Method. London: Verso.
Fischer, G. W. 1977. ‘Convergent Validation of Decomposed Multiattribute Utility Assessment Procedures for Risky and Riskless Decisions.’ Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 18: 295–315.
Fischhoff, B. 1975. ‘Hindsight Foresight: The Effect of Outcome Knowledge on Judgment under Uncertainty.’ Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 1: 288–299.
Fischhoff, B. 1980a. ‘Clinical Decision Analysis.’ Operations Research 28: 28–43.
Fischhoff, B. 1980b. ‘For Those Condemned to Study the Past: Reflections on Historical Judgment.’ In R. A. Shweder and D. W. Fiske, eds., New Directions for Methodology of Behavior Science: Fallible Judgment in Behavioral Research. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Fischhoff, B. 1982. ‘Debiasing.’ In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, A. Tversky, eds., Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Fischhoff, B. 1983. ‘Safety Goals for Nuclear Power.’ Journal of Policy Analysis and Management: 559–575.
Fischhoff, B. 1984. ‘Setting Standards: A Systematic Approach to Managing Public Health and Safety Risks.’ Management Science 30: 823–843.
Fischhoff, B, B. Goitein, and A. Shapira. 1982. ‘The Experienced Utility of Expected Utility Approaches.’ In N. Feather, ed., Expectancy, Incentive and Action. Hillsdale, N. J.: Erlbaum.
Fischhoff, B, S. Lichtenstein, P. Slovic, S. Derby, and R. Keeney. 1981. Acceptable Risk. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Fischhoff, B, P. Slovic, and S. Lichtenstein. 1980. ‘Knowing What You Want: Measuring Labile Values.’ In T. Wallsten, ed., Cognitive Processes in Choice and Decision Behavior. Hillsdale, N.J.: Erlbaum.
Fischhoff, B. 1981. ‘Lay Foibles and Expert Fables in Judgments about Risk.’ American Statistician 36: 240–255.
Fischhoff, B, O. Svenson, and P. Slovic. In press. ‘Active Responses to Environmental Hazards.’ In D. Stokols and I. Altman, eds., Handbook of Environmental Psychology. New York: Wiley.
Fischhoff, B, S. Watson, and C. Hope. 1984. ‘Defining Risk.’ Policy Sciences 17: 123–139.
Fishburn, P. C. 1982. The Foundations of Expected Utility Theory. Dordrecht: D. Reidel.
Fox, J. 1980. ‘Making Decisions under Influence of Memory.’ Psychological Review 87: 190–211.
Gamble, D. J. 1978. ‘The Berger Inquiry: An Impact Assessment Process.’ Science 199: 946–951.
Gibson, M., ed. In press. Risk, Consent, and Air. Totowa, N.J.: Rowman & Allenheld.
Glass, G. V., B. McGaw, and M. L. Smith. 1981. Metaanalysis in Social Research. New York: Sage.
Goldberg, L. R. 1968. ‘Simple Models or Simple Processes? Some Research on Clinical Judgments.’ American Psychologist 23: 483–496.
Goodin, R. E. 1978. ‘Uncertainty as an Excuse for Cheating our Children.’ Policy Sciences 10: 25–48.
Grether, D. M. and C. R. Plott. 1979. ‘Economic Theory of Choice and the Preference Reversal Phenomenon.’ American Economic Review 69: 623–638.
Hammond, K. R. and L. Adelman. 1976. ‘Science, Values and Human Judgment.’ Science 194: 389–396.
Hammond, K. R., and D. A. Summers. 1972. ‘Cognitive Control.’ Psychological Review 79: 58–67.
Hardin, G. 1968. ‘The Tragedy of the Commons.’ Science 162: 1243–1248.
Harris, S. R. 1978. ‘Mercury: Measuring and Managing the Hazard.’ Environment 20 (8).
Hedges, L. V. and V. Olkin. 1980. ‘Vote-Counting Methods in Research Synthesis.’ Psychological Bulletin 88: 359–369.
Henrion, M. and B. Fischhoff. In press. ‘Uncertainty Assessment in the Estimation of Physical Constants’. American Journal of Physics.
Hershey, J. C. and P. J. H. Shoemaker. 1980. ‘Risk Taking and Problem Context in the Domain of Losses: An Expected Utility Analysis.’ Journal of Risk and Isurance 47: 111–132.
Hogarth, R. ed. 1982. New Directions for Methodology of Social and Behaviral Science: The framing of questions and the Consistency of Response. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Janis, I. L., ed. 1982. Counseling on Personal Decisions. New Haven: Yale University Press.
Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky. 1979. ‘Prospect Theory.’ Econometrica.
Kahneman, D., P. Slovic, and A. Tversky. 1982. Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Kates, R. W. 1978. Risk Assessment of Environmental Hazard. Chichester, England: Wiley. Keeney, R. L. 1980. Siting Energy Facilities. New York: Academic Press.
Kates, R. W and H. Raiffa. 1976. Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs. New York: Wiley.
Knetsch, J. L. 1984. ‘Legal Rules and the Basis for Evaluating Economic Losses.’ International Review of Law and Economics 4: 5–13.
Knetsch, J. L and J. A. Sinden. In press. ‘Willingness to Pay and Compensation Demanded.’ Quarterly Journal of Economics.
Krantz, D. H., R. D. Luce, P. Suppes, and A. Tversky. 1971. Foundations of Measurement, Vol. I. New York: Academic Press.
Krutilla, J. V. and A. C. Fisher. 1975. The Economics of Natural Environments. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Kunreuther, H., R. Ginsberg, L. Miller, P. Sagi, P. Slovic, B. Borkin, and N. Katz. 1978. Disaster Insurance Protection: Public Policy Lessons. New York: Wiley.
Levine, M. 1974. ‘Scientific Method and the Adversary Model: Some Preliminary Thoughts.’ American Psychologist 29: 61–716.
Lichtenstein, S., B. Fischhoff, and L. D. Phillips. 1982. ‘Calibration of Probabilities: The State of the Art to 1980.’ In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky, eds., Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Lind, R. C., K. J. Arrow, G. Corey, P. Dasgupta, A. Sen, T. Stauffer, J. E. Stiglitz, J. Stockfish, and R. Wilson. 1982. Discounting for Time and Risk in Energy Policy. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Mahoney, M. J. 1979. ‘Psychology of the Scientist: An Evaluative Review.’ Social Studies of Science. 9; 349–375.
Markovic, M. 1970. ‘Social Determinism and Freedom.’ In H. E. Kelfer and M. K. Munitz, eds., Mind,Science and History. Albany: State University of New York Press.
Mazur, A. ‘Disputes between Experts.’ Minerva 11: 243–262.
Mazur, A, A. A. Marino, and R. O. Becker. 1979. ‘Separating Factual Disputes from Value Disputes in Controversies over Technology.’ Technology in Society 1: 229–237.
McClelland, G. H. and J. Rohrbaugh. 1978. ‘Who Accepts the Pareto Axiom?’ Behavioral Science 23: 446–456.
McKean, R. N. 1972. ‘The Use of Shadow Prices.’ In R. Layard, ed., Cost-Benefit Analysis. Harmondsworth: Penguin.
Meehl, P. E. 1954. Clinical vs. Statistical Prediction. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Merkhofer, M., V. Covello, and J. Menkes, eds. 1984. Risk Assessment and Risk Assessment Methods. Report prepared for the National Science Foundation. Boston: Charles River Associates.
Miller, G. A. 1956. ‘The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information.’ Psychological Review 63: 81–97.
Mishan, E. J. 1976. Cost-Benefit Analysis. New York: Praeger.
Murphy, A. H. and R. L. Winkler, In press. ‘Probability of Precipitation Forecasts.’ Journal of the American Statistical Association.
National Research Council. 1982. Survey Measure of Subjective Phenomena. Washington, D.C.
National Research Council. 1983. Priority Mechanisms for Toxic Chemicals. Washington, D.C.
Nelkin, D., ed. 1984. Controversy: Politics of Technical Decisions. Beverly Hills: Sage.
Newell, A. and H. A. Simon. 1972. Human Problem Solving. Engelwood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Nisbett, R. W. and T. D. Wilson. 1977. ‘Telling More than We Can Know: Verbal Reports on Mental Processes.’ Psychological Review 84: 231–259.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission. 1983. Safety Goals for Nuclear Power Plants: A Discussion Paper. NUREG-0880. Washington, D.C.
Otway, H. J. and J. J. Cohen. 1975. Revealed Preferences: Comments on the Starr Benefit-Risk Relationships. Research Memorandum 75–5. Laxenburg, Austria:International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Page, R. T. 1978. ‘A Generic View of Toxic Chemicals and Similar Risks.’ Ecology Law Quarterly 7: 207–243.
Page, R. T. 1981. ‘A Framework for Unreasonable Risk in the Toxic Substances Control Act.’ In R. Nicholson, ed., Carcinogenic Risk Assessment. New York: New York Academy of Sciences.
Payne, J. W. 1982. ‘Contingent Decision Behavior.’ Psychological Bulletin 92: 382–401.
Payne, S. L. 1952. The Art of Asking Questions. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Pigou, L. 1932. The Economics of Welfare. London: Macmillan.
Popper, K. R. 1961. The Logic of Scientific Discovery. New York: Science Editions.
Raiffa, H. 1968. Decision Analysis. Reading. Mass.: Addison-Wesley.
Rokeach, M. 1973. The Nature of Human Values. New York: Free Press.
Schelling, T. C. 1980. Micromotives and Macrobehavior. New York: Norton.
Schulze, W. 1974. ‘Social Welfare Functions for the Future.’ American Economist 18(1): 70–81.
Schuman, H. and M. Johnson. 1976. ‘Attitudes and Behavior.’ Annual Review of Sociology 2: 161–207.
Simon, H. A. 1956. ‘Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment.’ Psychological — Review 63: 129–138.
Simon, H. A. 1978. ‘Rationality as Process and Product of Thought.’ American Economic Review 68:1–16.
Slovic, P. and S. Lichtenstein. 1983. ‘Preference Reversals: A Broader Perspective.’ American Economic Review 73: 596–605.
Slovic, P., B. Fischhoff, and S. Lichtenstein. 1979. ‘Rating the Risks.“ Environment 213: 14–20, 36–39.
Slovic, P., B. Fischhoff, and S. Lichtenstein. 1980. ‘Facts and Fears: Understanding Perceived Risk.’ In R. Schwing and W. A. Albers, Jr., eds., Societal Risk Assessment: How Safe is Safe Enough?New York: Plenum.
Slovic, P., B. Fischhoff, and S. Lichtenstein. 1984. ‘Modeling the Societal Impact of Fatal Accidents.’ Management Science 30: 464–474.
Slovic, P., B. Fischhoff, and S. Lichtenstein. In press. ‘Decision Making.’ In R. C. Atkinson, R. J. Herrnstein, G. Lindzey, and R. D. Luce, eds., Stevens’ Handbook of Experimental Psychology. 2nd ed. New York: Wiley.
Starr, C. 1969. ‘Social Benefit Versus Technological Risk.’ Science 165: 1232–1238.
Stokey, E. and R. Zeckhauser. 1978. A Primer of Policy Analysis. New York: Norton.
Sugden, R. and A. Williams. 1978. The Principles of Practical Cost Benefit Analysis. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Svenson, O. 1979. ‘Process Descriptions of Decision Making.’ Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 23: 86–112.
Teger, A. I. 1979. Too Much Invested to Quit. New York: Pergamon.
Thaler, R. H. 1980. ‘Toward a Positive Theory of Consumer Choice.’ Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 1: 38–60.
Thaler, R. H and H. M. Shefrin. 1981. ‘An Economic Theory of Self Control.’ Journal of Political Economy 89: 392–406.
Turner, C., E. Martin, and T. De Maio, eds. 1985. Survey Measure of Subjective Phenomena. New York: Sage.
Tversky, A. 1972. ‘Elimination by Aspects: A Theory of Choice.’ Psychological Review 79: 281–299.
Tversky, A and D. Kahneman. 1974. ‘Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases.’ Science 211: 453–458.
Tversky, A and D. Kahneman. 1981. ‘The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice.’ Science 211: 453–458.
Von Winterfeldt, D. and W. Edwards. 1982. ‘Costs and Payoffs in Perceptual Research.’ Psychological Bulletin 91: 609–622.
Wallsten, T. and D. Budescu. 1983. ‘Encoding Subjective Probabilities: A Psychological and Psychometric Review.’ Management Science 29: 151–173.
Wilson, R. 1979. ‘Analyzing the Daily Risks of Life.’ Technology Review 81(4): 40–46.
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1986 D. Reidel Publishing Company
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Fischhoff, B., Cox, L.A. (1986). Conceptual Framework for Regulatory Benefits Assessment. In: Bentkover, J.D., Covello, V.T., Mumpower, J. (eds) Benefits Assessment. Technology, Risk, and Society, vol 1. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4524-1_4
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4524-1_4
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-010-8515-1
Online ISBN: 978-94-009-4524-1
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive