How to Probabilize a Newcomb Problem

Abstract

“Dogmatism” (in a non-invidious sense) is an ancient term for the view that judgment is and ought to be a matter of assertion and denial, of belief (Greek, “dogma”) and disbelief. Probabilism is a relatively recent view, urged in the mid-17th century, that judgment isn’t or shouldn’t generally be a matter of believing but of — what to call it? — probabilizing. Will it rain today? I don’t know; I’m not in a position to assert or deny it. But still I may have an action-guiding probabilistic judgment, e.g., my odds on rain might be 7: 3, my probability for rain might be 70%.