Skip to main content

Applying TRIZ Tools in Product Foresight and Technology Forecasting: A Case Study from Industry

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
TRIZ-Anwendertag 2020

Abstract

The systematic observing and evaluation of the technology to obtain early information about the opportunities and risks of new technological developments is a key objective of technology forecasting and product foresight. The technology evaluation articulates the technology-related knowledge to assess the identified technologies’ potential use in products and processes. In this paper, the focus will be on existing forecasting methods and combinations. Moreover, the paper will figure out, if TRIZ and combinations of its methods support the forecasting process and which value it has been created. The paper provides a case study how TRIZ tools can be applied for an innovative, and more digital product like the Tesla car and derives future potential for the product and the embedded technologies. After that, it is compared with available expert view on the future to outline the differences in comparison to the TRIZ-based approach. As a result, implications for practice and research are summarized based on the developed TRIZ framework and its applicability to industry.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
$34.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or eBook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 99.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 129.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Cetindamar, D., Phaal, R., Probert, D.: Understanding technology management as a dynamic capability: a framework for technology management activities. Technovation 29(4), 237–246 (2009)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. D’Ippolito, B.: The importance of design for firms’ competitiveness: a review of the literature. Technovation 34(11), 716–730 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Coates, V., Farooque, M., Klavans, R., Lapid, K., Linstone, H.A., Pistorius, C., Porter, A.L.: On the future of technological forecasting. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 67(1), 1–17 (2001)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Phaal, R., Farrukh, C.J., Probert, D.R.: A framework for supporting the management of technological knowledge. Int. J. Technol. Manage. 27(1), 1–15 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Vanston, J.H.: Technology forecasting: a practical tool for rationalizing the R&D process. New Telecom Quarterly 4(1), 57–62 (1996)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Kucharavy, D., De Guio, R.: Application of S-shaped curves. In: Procedia Engineering – Proceeding of the ETRIA World TRIZ Future Conference, vol. 9, pp. 559–572 (2011)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Yoon, B., Park, Y.: Development of new technology forecasting algorithm: hybrid approach for morphology analysis and conjoint analysis of patent information. IEEE Trans. Eng. Manag. 54(3), 588–599 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Porter, A.L.: Forecasting and management of technology. Wiley, New York (1991)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Cheng, A., Chen, C.J., Chen, C.Y.: A fuzzy multiple criteria comparison of technology forecasting methods for predicting the new materials development. Technol. Forecasting Soc. Change 75(1), 131–141 (2008)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Nevo, D., Chan, Y.E.: A Delphi study of knowledge management systems: scope and requirements. Inf. Manag. 44(6), 583–597 (2007)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Münzberg, C., Hammer, J., Brem, A., Lindemann, U.: Crisis situations in engineering product development: a TRIZ based approach. Procedia CIRP 39, 144–149 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Fey, V.R., Rivin, E.I.: Innovation on demand: new product development using TRIZ. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2005)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  13. Verein Deutscher Ingenieure: Inventive problem solving with TRIZ – Fundamentals and definitions. Beuth, Berlin (2015)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  14. Ilevbare, I., Probert, D., Phaal, R.: A review of TRIZ and its benefits and challenges in practice. Technovation 33(2–3), 30–37 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Altshuller, G.S.: Creativity as an exact science: the theory of the solution of inventive problems. Gordon and Breach, New York (1984)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  16. Altschuller, G.: The Innovation Algorithm: TRIZ, Systematic Innovation and Technical Creativity. Technical Innovation Center, Worcester (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  17. Altschuller, G.: 40 Principles: TRIZ Keys to Technical Innovation. Technical Innovation Center, Worcester (2002)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Terninko, J., Zlotin, B., Zusman, A.: Systematic Innovation: An Introduction to TRIZ. St. Lucie Press, Boca Raton (1998)

    Book  Google Scholar 

  19. Abramov, O.Y.: TRIZ-assisted Stage-Gate process for developing new products. J. Finance Econ. 2(5), 178–184 (2014)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Litvin, S.: Main Parameters of Value: TRIZ-based Tool Connecting Business Challenges to Technical Problems in Product/Process Innovation. Retrieved 03/16, 2018 (2011). http://www.triz-japan.org/PRESENTATION/sympo2011/Pres-Overseas/EI01eS-Litvin_(Keynote)-110817.pdf

  21. Ikovenko, S.: MA TRIZ & MIT, TRIZ & Innovative Logistics MPV Analysis and its TRIZ Applications for Forecasting and Improving Supply Chains”, January 12, 2019, Klagenfurt Austria (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  22. Lyubomirskiy, A., et al.: Trends of Engineering System Evolution (TESE) TRIZ paths to innovation (2018)

    Google Scholar 

  23. Ikovenko, S., et al.: State-of-the-ART TRIZ, Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  24. Adunka, R.: ARIZ 85C Template, TRIZ Consulting Group (2019)

    Google Scholar 

  25. Koltze, K., et al.: Systematische Innovation TRIZ-Anwendung in der Produkt- und Prozessentwicklung (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  26. List of countries by traffic-related death rate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate

  27. NHTSA: Tesla Model 3 5-Star Safety Rating (2018). https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2018/TESLA/MODEL%2525203/4%252520DR/RWD#safety-ratings-side

  28. Seba, T.: Future of Transportation/Keynote: 2020 NC DOT Transportation Summit (2020). https://youtu.be/y916mxoio0E

  29. Moore’s Law. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law. Accessed Mar 2019

  30. Zach, S.: CleanTechnica – Battery pack price 2010–2018 (2018). https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/29/23-big-ev-battery-stories-newsbonanza. Accessed Mar 2019

  31. Dudenhöfer, F.: Wer kriegt die Kurve? Zeitenwende in der Autoindustrie (2016)

    Google Scholar 

  32. Lee, K.F.: AI Super-Powers China, Silicon Valley the New World Order (2018)

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jens Hammer .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2021 Der/die Autor(en), exklusiv lizenziert durch Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE, ein Teil von Springer Nature

About this paper

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this paper

Kiesel, M., Hammer, J., Kiesel, A. (2021). Applying TRIZ Tools in Product Foresight and Technology Forecasting: A Case Study from Industry. In: Mayer, O. (eds) TRIZ-Anwendertag 2020. Springer Vieweg, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-63073-0_2

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-63073-0_2

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer Vieweg, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-662-63072-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-662-63073-0

  • eBook Packages: Computer Science and Engineering (German Language)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics