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Simulating the Uncertain: Present Status of Operation and Maintenance Simulation for Offshore Wind Farms

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Smart Cities/Smart Regions – Technische, wirtschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Innovationen

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Zusammenfassung

Erste subventionsfreie Offshore-Windparks in Deutschland sind geplant. Die Realisierung dieser Projekte beruht auf der richtigen Einschätzung von Planungsunsicherheiten und Kosten im Projektlebenszyklus. Betrieb und Wartung erstrecken sich über einen beträchtlichen Zeitraum des Lebenszyklus und haben somit einen hohen Einfluss auf die Gesamtunsicherheiten. Aufgrund mangelnder Erfahrung in der Kostenplanung von Offshore-Windparks wurden bereits 1997 Simulationsmodelle für Betrieb und Wartung entwickelt. Seitdem sind sie zu einem der zentralen Themen bei der Bewertung von Planungsunsicherheiten in Windparkprojekten geworden. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, Theorien und Ansätze zur Simulation von Planungsunsicherheiten beim Betrieb und der Instandhaltung von Offshore-Windparks zu überprüfen. Eine strukturierte Literaturrecherche wurde durchgeführt, um einen Überblick über aktuelle Simulationsmodelle zu erhalten und mit Hilfe von Theorien und Ansätzen Planungsunsicherheiten in quantifizierbare Risiken umzuwandeln. Neununddreißig verschiedene Simulationsmodelle, die in einem Zeitraum von zwei Jahrzehnten entwickelt wurden, wurden bewertet und in funktionale Unsicherheitsmodule unterteilt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eindrucksvoll, dass sich die bisherigen Arbeiten vor allem auf wenige Ansätze konzentriert haben. Darüber hinaus spiegeln sich Bewertungen und Entscheidungspräferenzen von Betriebs- und Wartungsfachleuten nur selten in diesen Tools wider. Es ist noch unklar, ob probabilistische Modelle von der Berücksichtigung von Bewertungen durch Betriebs- und Instandhaltungsfachleute profitieren würden, zukünftige Entwicklungen könnten von einem systemischen Ansatz zur Simulation von Projektunsicherheiten profitieren.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    e.g. crew transfer vessel, service operation vessel or helicopter.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ramboll IMS Ingenieurgesellschaft mbH, Hamburg, Deutschland

    Dirk Bendlin

  2. Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Deutschland

    Kimberly Hebig & Jorge Marx Gómez

  3. Fraunhofer, Elmlohe, Deutschland

    Gerrit Wolken-Möhlmann

Authors
  1. Dirk Bendlin
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  2. Kimberly Hebig
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  3. Gerrit Wolken-Möhlmann
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  4. Jorge Marx Gómez
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Dirk Bendlin .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany

    Jorge Marx Gómez

  2. Fakultät II - Department für Informatik, Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany

    Andreas Solsbach

  3. Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, Oldenburg, Germany

    Thomas Klenke

  4. HTW Berlin, Berlin, Germany

    Volker Wohlgemuth

Appendices

Appendices

Table A.1 Classification of simulation methods and their percentage of use
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Bendlin, D., Hebig, K., Wolken-Möhlmann, G., Marx Gómez, J. (2019). Simulating the Uncertain: Present Status of Operation and Maintenance Simulation for Offshore Wind Farms. In: Marx Gómez, J., Solsbach, A., Klenke, T., Wohlgemuth, V. (eds) Smart Cities/Smart Regions – Technische, wirtschaftliche und gesellschaftliche Innovationen. Springer Vieweg, Wiesbaden. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-658-25210-6_46

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