Evaluating probabilistic unfolding theories

Abstract

In this section we will deal with the problem of how probabilistic unfolding theories can be evaluated. The approach that will be advocated has been hinted at in Chapter 2, in which properties of probabilistic choice behavior were explored. An examination of the properties of probabilistic choice behavior that are necessarily implied by a probabilistic choice theory resulted in a second classification of existing probabilistic unfolding theories. Looking at it from a different angle, one can consider the assumption that a particular property is satisfied in probabilities of choosing alternatives as axioms of alternative theories on probabilistic choice (Type I). Contrary to the theories presented in the Chapter 1 (Type II), these Type I theories are built then on assumed regularities in probabilistic choice behavior, instead of on some cognitive structure of a presupposed form, though the latter may (indirectly) lead to the same sort of regularities.