Abstract
Land use changes are a result of decision making at the local level which is influenced by changes in the regional and global economy, demography, policies and other factors operating over a wide range of organisational levels and spatial scales. This chapter describes a methodology to integrate the demands for changes in land use as determined by global and national scale processes with local level conditions influencing land use conversions across the European Union. The approach enables an assessment of landscape level changes in land use and the analysis of policies specifically aimed at land use and landscape functioning. A baseline scenario is presented to illustrate the approach and results.
Access provided by Autonomous University of Puebla. Download to read the full chapter text
Chapter PDF
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Appleton K, Lovett A, Sunnenberg G and Dockerty T (2002) Rural landscape visualisation from GIS databases: a comparison of approaches, options and problems. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 26(2–3): 141–162
Arnell NW et al (2004) Climate and socio-economic scenarios for global-scale climate change impacts assessments: characterising the SRES storylines. Global Environmental Change, 14(1): 3–20
Bennett EM et al (2003) Why global scenarios need ecology. Frontiers in Ecology, 1: 322–329
Brecard D, Fougeyrollas A, Le Mouel P, Lemiale L and Zagame P (2006) Macroeconomic consequences of European research policy: Prospects of the Nemesis model in the year 2030. Research Policy, 35: 910–924
Britz W, Wieck C, Perez I and Jansson T (2002) Impact analysis of the European Commission’s proposal under the Mid-Term Review of the Common Agricultural Policy (using the CAPRI model), Final report (22.08.02 AGR 019924). University of Bonn, EuroCARE, Department for Economics and Agricultural Policy, Bonn
Busch G (2006) Future European agricultural landscapes-What can we learn from existing quantitative land use scenario studies? Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114(1): 121–140
Dockerty T, Lovett A, Appleton K, Bone A and Sünnenberg G (2006) Developing scenarios and visualisations to illustrate potential policy and climatic influences on future agricultural landscapes. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114(1): 103–120
EEA (2005). http://dataservice.eea.eu.int; last accessed: 20/08/2005. European Environmental Agency
Eetvelde Vv and Antrop M (2004) Analyzing structural and functional changes of traditional landscapes-two examples from Southern France. Landscape and Urban Planning, 67: 79–95
Gardner RH, (1998) Pattern, process, and the analysis of spatial scales. In: Peterson DL and Parker VT (eds), Ecological Scale: Theory and Applications. Complexity in Ecological Systems. Columbia University Press, New York, 17–34
IPCC (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios-a special report of working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK
Jansson T, Bakker M, Boitier B, Fougeyrollas A, Helming J, van Meijl H, Verkerk PJ (2008) Cross sector land use modelling framework In: Helming K, Tabbush P, Perez-Soba M (eds). Sustainability impact assessment of land use changes. Springer, 159–180
Kuhlman T (2008) Scenarios: Driving forces and policies In: Helming K, Tabbush P, Perez-Soba M (eds). Sustainability impact assessment of land use changes. Springer, 131–157
Loonen W, Heuberger PSC, Bakema AH and Schot P (2006) Application of a genetic algorithm to minimize agricultural nitrogen deposition in nature reserves. Agricultural Systems, 88(2–3): 360–375
MacDonald D et al (2000) Agricultural abandonment in mountain areas of Europe: Environmental consequences and policy response. Journal of Environmental Management, 59(1): 47–69
Matthews KB, Buchan K, Sibbald AR and Craw S, (2006) Combining deliberative and computer-based methods for multi-objective land-use planning. Agricultural Systems, 87(1): 18–37
Matthews R, Gilbert N, Roach A, Polhill J and Gotts N, (2007) Agent-based landuse models: a review of applications. Landscape Ecology, 22(10): 1447–1459
MEA (2005) Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Synthesis. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Island Press, Washington, D.C.
Meijl Hv and Tongeren FWv (2002) The Agenda 2000 CAP reform, world prices and GATT-WTO export constraints. European Review of Agricultural Economics, 29(4): 445–470
Meijl Hv, van Rheenen T, Tabeau A and Eickhout B (2006) The impact of different policy environments on agricultural land use in Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114(1): 21–38
Nowicki P et al (2007) Scenar 2020-Scenario study on agriculture and the rural world, ropean Commission, Directorate-General Agriculture and Rural Development, Directorate G. Economic analysis and evaluation., Brussel
Peterson GD et al (2003) Assessing future ecosystem services: A case study of the Northern Highland Lake District, Wisconsin. Conservation Ecology, http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol7/iss3/art1/index.html
Rotmans J et al (2000) Visions for a sustainable Europe. Futures, 32: 809–831
Rounsevell MDA, Berry PM and Harrison PA (2006a). Future environmental change impacts on rural land use and biodiversity: a synthesis of the ACCELERATES project. Environmental Science & Policy, 9(2): 93–100
Rounsevell MDA, Ewert F, Reginster I, Leemans R and Carter TR (2005) Future scenarios of European agricultural land use: II. Projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 107(2–3): 101–116
Rounsevell MDA et al (2006b) A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114(1): 57–68
Schröter D et al. (2005) Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe. Science, 310: 1333–1337
Seppelt R and Voinov A (2002) Optimization methodology for land use patterns using spatially explicit landscape models. Ecological Modelling, 151: 125–142
Strengers B, Leemans R, Eickhout B, De Vries B and Bouwman AF (2004) The land-use projections and resulting emissions in the IPCC SRES scenarios as simulated by the IMAGE 2.2 model. GeoJournal, 61: 381–393
UNEP (2002) Global Environment Outlook 3. UNEP, Nairobi
van Ittersum MK et al. (2004) A systems network (SysNet) approach for interactively evaluating strategic land use options at sub-national scale in South and South-east Asia. Land Use Policy, 21(2): 101–113
Verburg PH, Soepboer W, Limpiada R, Espaldon MVO, Sharifa M and Veldkamp A (2002) Land use change modelling at the regional scale: the CLUE-S model. Environmental Management, 30: 391–405
Verburg PH, Ritsema van Eck J, de Nijs T, Dijst MJ and Schot P (2004a) Determinants of land use change patterns in the Netherlands. Environment and Planning B, 31: 125–150
Verburg PH, Rounsevell MDA and Veldkamp A (2006a) Scenario-based studies of future land use in Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114(1): 1–6
Verburg PH, Schot P, Dijst M and Veldkamp A (2004b) Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities. Geojournal, 61(4): 309–324
Verburg PH, Schulp CJE, Witte N and Veldkamp A (2006b) Downscaling of land use change scenarios to assess the dynamics of European landscapes. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 114(1): 39–56
Wester-Herber M (2004) Underlying concerns in land-use conflicts—the role of place-identity in risk perception. Environmental Science & Policy, 7(2): 109
Wu J and Qi Y (2000) Dealing with scale in landscape analysis: an overview. Geographic Information Sciences, 6(1): 1–5
Xiang WN and Clarke KC (2003) The use of scenarios in land-use planning. Environment and Planning B, 30(6): 885–909
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Verburg, P.H., Bakker, M., Overmars, K.P., Staritsky, I. (2008). Landscape level simulation of land use change. In: Helming, K., Pérez-Soba, M., Tabbush, P. (eds) Sustainability Impact Assessment of Land Use Changes. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78648-1_11
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-78648-1_11
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-78647-4
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-78648-1
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)